Written by JJ Zachariason on August 23, 2008

When it comes to fantasy football, you need a little bit of luck. You have to use your gut when trying to pick the next Adrian Peterson or Derek Anderson. Luck will not always take you to the promise land, though. Skill is involved in fantasy football – you need a strategy, and this strategy begins with the draft. I’ve crammed my knowledge from many sources and seven years of fantasy football experience to make this gorgeous article. Here are 5 quick tips to ensure a successful fantasy football draft.

1. Get a Running Back in the First Round
   I always go by this rule. Why? It’s simple, they get the most touches. Let’s also look at it mathematically. There are 32 teams in the league, each with a ‘starting running back’. The reason I bunny-eared the phrase ‘starting running back’ is because of the running back by committee system that teams have been implementing into their respected offenses. With this system, starting running backs are getting less carries resulting in lower fantasy numbers. By getting a running back early solidifies the chance that you’ll get a back that is not sharing time and will get plenty of carries. There are always exceptions to the rule, such as last year’s Marion Barber (who’s carries will increase this year), but always get a back early. My draft strategy: Draft a running back that has no competition for carries, and do it early to get a stud.


2. Be Patient With Quarterbacks
   Nothing annoys me more than when people think they need to draft a quarterback early because of the position they play. This year especially, draft a quarterback late. When I say late, I mean late. To me, there are four elite fantasy quarterbacks entering the 2008-09 season. These include: Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Tony Romo, and Drew Brees. After these four, I have a pretty big drop off to Ben Roethlisberger. After him, I’ll throw in guys like Derek Anderson, Carson Palmer, and even Donovan McNabb. The reason I say be patient is because a solid starter at quarterback will be available rounds 8-10. This may sound crazy, but let’s use a draft that I had just completed with my ‘main league’ to prove this point. It’s a twelve team league with standard scoring and is extremely competitive. Matt Hasselbeck was drafted in the fifth round, and I know a lot of that pick had to do with his name. In the eighth round, 33 picks later, I snagged Derek Anderson. Quarterbacks still available at this point included: Marc Bulger, Jason Campbell, and Matt Schaub. To me, these players can easily outperform a quarterback like Hasselbeck. Please, do not fear when quarterbacks start jumping off the board. Even if you are the last player in your league to draft a quarterback, be happy. You’re getting a player like Jason Campbell in the 10th round when someone took Hasselbeck in the 5th. The difference between their statistics this year could, and probably will, be minimal. Meanwhile, you’ll be picking up receivers and running backs for depth that will come in handy mid-season. My draft strategy: Wait until rounds 8-10 to draft a quarterback, after you have at least one backup running back and receiver.


3. Get a Stud Wide Receiver
   This year, there is a large drop off in running backs after the first round and a half. If you’re draft position is between 1-5, you want to get a wide receiver in the second round. Let’s refer back to my draft. Braylon Edwards, who I have ranked as the fourth best wide receiver, was drafted at pick 20. The owner who got him had the fifth overall pick in the draft and got a top tier running back. He could have picked a running back at this position. Some available backs include: Brandon Jacobs, Thomas Jones, Michael Turner, Ronnie Brown, and Darren McFadden (to name a few). Each of these backs, to me, could be swapped with one another. Can you honestly say with confidence that Brandon Jacobs will have a better year than Thomas Jones or Michael Turner? On the other hand, when you look at the stud wide receivers available (Colston, Fitzgerald, Burress, Holmes, Holt), you may feel more confident in saying that Edwards will have a better year than most of these guys (I am high on Colston, though). If you aren’t convinced yet, if you look later in the draft, you can get a player like McFadden or Michael Turner in the fourth round at this same draft position. The receivers available will get thin, leaving you with a player like Greg Jennings in the fourth round. The great, consistent wide-outs will go in the late second/early third rounds. With a draft position near the top of the draft, you want to take a receiver with your second and third picks. Let a running back fall to you with your fourth, and snag another one with your fifth for insurance. If you’re late in the draft (picks 7-12), I would still try to snag a back in round two unless Terrell Owens or Reggie Wayne are available in the mid second round. My draft strategy: If your draft position is early, snag stud wide receivers in the second and third rounds and let your second running back fall to you in the fourth.
   
4. Draft a Defense and Kicker in the Last Two Rounds
   You may think it is smart to get the best defense before anyone else does because defenses produce a fair amount of points, but remember to wait. Let’s start out by looking at last years defensive statistics in fantasy. The Chargers were listed at number one with 198 points (ESPN standard scoring). Behind them were the Patriots (173 points), Seahawks (171 points), Bears (168), and Vikings (166). Just take a look at the difference in points between the second best and the fifth best defense – 7 points. There’s no way that will make or break your season, especially when you can get wide receiver or running back depth instead of hopping on the defense bandwagon. Most leagues also start one team defense. If you’re in a twelve man league, there will be twelve defenses used, and almost everyone does not keep a defense on the bench (unless your league has deep benches). So, let’s take a look now at the top twelve defenses. As stated earlier, the Chargers had the most points (198). There was a small drop-off to the next four teams points-wise (166-173). If we look down to the twelfth ranked defense from last year, the Steelers, we see that they finished the year with 130 points. So, the difference between the twelfth ranked defense compared to the second ranked defense was about two and half points per game. Also, remember that when you’re starting a defense, it’s all about matchups. Check the defense’s schedule; see if they’re playing a team that turns the ball over.
   
   Kickers fall into the same category as team defense. Actually, when it comes to kickers, it is proven that drafting the best one in fantasy football is sheer luck. Just because you draft a kicker on a high power offense does not mean he’s going to necessarily get you more points. Field goals get you the points, and you kick field goals when your team can not score in the red zone. Now, don’t go drafting an inexperienced kicker that has not yet proved to be reliable, but don’t worry about getting a kicker during any round but the last.
   Draft Strategy: Draft a defense and kicker with the last two picks of your draft.


5. Draft a Running Backs With Huge Upsides
   Everyone wants last year’s Adrian Peterson. To do it, you have to take young backs who have yet to prove themselves and are in systems where they have a shot at starting at the beginning or in the middle of the season. I would not suggest drafting one of these running backs as a starter, though. These backs should be available at least during round five or six in a standard league. Get one after you already have at least two wide receivers and two running backs. These young backs can be used as good insurance for your backs, and the more you get, the more chance there is for one of them to break out. Remember to not pass up on quality players, though. If you see a player at wide receiver that you feel is a steal at the pick you have, take him. If not, do not overlook the power of a rookie running back. Draft Strategy: Wait to get a young, inexperienced running back after you have two starting wide-outs and running backs. These young backs can establish themselves as starters mid-season, and can serve as solid back-up choices.
   
   Possible Break-Out Running Backs
   1. Darren McFadden (Oak)
   2. Jonathan Stewart (Car)
   3. Kevin Smith (Det)
   4. Matt Forte (Chi)
   5. Steve Slaton (Hou)
   
   I want everyone to keep in mind that there are so many exceptions to these five tips, but with standard scoring and lineups, these guidelines can come in handy. The one key thing I can share is to draft the best player available, and try your hardest not to reach for players. Let them fall into your lap.

To sum everything up: Get a running back in the first round, and if you’re draft position is 1-6, grab a wide receiver in the second and third round and hope to get two running backs in the fourth and fifth rounds. Remember, you have to see the way the draft is heading because you may want to get a back in the third round to be safe. Wait for a quarterback, there will be a productive starter for you in the late rounds of the draft. While everyone is drafting their quarterbacks, fill your running back and wide receiving bench spots for insurance and trade bait. When the draft is finishing up, get your defense and kicker with your last picks. Keep in mind that every pick is important, you can get steals in the late rounds of drafts.

Good luck to everyone drafting, and if you already have drafted, hopefully I will be back to give more insight on the fantasy football season. Go Steelers (sorry, I’m a homer).

JJ’s Top 15 Quarterback Rankings
1. Tom Brady (NE)
2. Tony Romo (Dal)
3. Drew Brees (NO)
4. Peyton Manning (Ind)
5. Ben Roethlisberger (Pit)
6. Derek Anderson (Cle)
7. Carson Palmer (Cin)
8. Brett Favre (NYJ)
9. Donovan McNabb (Phi)
10. David Garrard (Jac)
11. Matt Hasselbeck (Sea)
12. Matt Schaub (Hou)
13. Marc Bulger (StL)
14. Jay Cutler (Den)
15. Jason Campbell (Was)

JJ’s top 15 Wide Receivers
1. Randy Moss (NE)
2. Terrell Owens (Dal)
3. Reggie Wayne (Ind)
4. Braylon Edwards (Cle)
5. Marques Colston (NO)
6. Andre Johnson (Hou)
7. Larry Fitzgerald (Ari)
8. T.J. Houshmandzadeh (Cin)
9. Torry Holt (StL)
10. Santonio Holmes (Pit)
11. Chad Johnson (Cin)
12. Steve Smith (Car)
13. Plaxico Burress (NYG)
14. Anquan Boldin (Ari)
15. Roy Williams (Det)

JJ’s top 15 Running Back’s
1. LaDainian Tomlinson (SD)
2. Adrian Peterson (Min)
3. Brian Westbrook (Phi)
4. Joseph Addai (Ind)
5. Marion Barber (Dal)
6. Steven Jackson (StL)
7. Clinton Portis (Was)
8. Marshawn Lynch (Buf)
9. Frank Gore (SF)
10. Ryan Grant (GB)
11. Larry Johnson (KC)
12. Willis McGahee (Bal)
13. Maurice Jones-Drew (Jac)
14. Brandon Jacobs (NYG)
15. Jamal Lewis (Cle)

-JJ Zachariason

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