Jacksonville Jaguars - #5

#4 - New England Patriots

Overall Record: 12-4
Road Record: 6-2
Offense: 15th overall
(10th rush, 19th pass)
Defense: 6th overall
(14th rush, 7th pass)

Overall Record: 10-4
Home Record: 5-3
Offense: 7th overall
(24th rush, 2nd pass)
Defense: 26th overall
(8th rush, 31st pass)

David Garrard: 86 of 142 for 1002 yards, 4 touchdowns, 1 interception, 1 fumble.
Byron Leftwich: 96 of 161 for 1095 yards, 8 touchdowns, 2 interceptions, 1 fumble.

Note: Although Leftwich has not played for about six weeks, he will get the start against the Patriots in return from injury. Overall, Leftwich was a more efficient passer and gives them the best chance to win.

Tom Brady: 97 of 143 for 1080 yards,  8 touchdowns, 4 interceptions.

Note: Brady doesn't throw very many interceptions, but the ones that he did throw the last few weeks did not cost his team. The Patriots have won four straight games when all of their starters have played, and Brady's precision passing has been a major part of it.

Fred Taylor: 67 carries, 221 yards, 3.3 avg, 1 touchdown. 5 catches, 39 yards.
Greg Jones: 85 carries, 301 yards, 3.5 avg, 1 touchdown. 6 catches, 34 yards.

Note: The Jaguars have had the advantage of seeing the development of the power-running Greg Jones throughout the year. Both men will split carries, but Taylor has a little more speed and would be more likely to break one than Jones. It'll be tough against New England's defense though.

Corey Dillon: 95 carries, 332 yards, 3.4 avg, 5 touchdowns. 15 catches, 92 yards, 1 touchdown.
Kevin Faulk: 37 carries, 117 yards, 3.2 avg. 16 catches, 144 yards.

Note: Since Dillon and Faulk have both come back, the Patriots offense has been on fire. Dillon has been able to get tough yardage while Faulk has returned to his role as a third down back in certain situations. Dillon can tire out defenses.

Jimmy Smith: 26 catches, 338 yards, 2 touchdowns.
Ernest Wilford: 14 catches, 245 yards, 2 touchdowns.
Matt Jones: 8 catches, 94 yards, 1 touchdown.

Note: The Jaguars have seen some nice production out of the young Wilford to compliment Smith. Although Matt Jones is only averaging a little over a catch a game lately, he had better chemistry with Leftwich that he did Garrard.

Deion Branch: 18 catches, 241 yards, 1 touchdown.
David Givens: 17 catches, 261 yards.
Ben Watson: 12 catches, 168 yards, 1 touchdown.

Note: While the statistics don't look spectacular for these three receivers, that's simply a result of Brady spreading the ball around. If I pulled out the stats of Troy Brown, Daniel Graham, and a few other Patriots, they would be comparable. Don't forget about Vrabel near the goal line either.

Opponents/Scores: Cleveland(14), Indianapolis(26), San Francisco(9), Houston(20), Tennessee(13).

Note: The Jaguars did a fair job at shutting down four of their final five opponents. However, you have to be concerned that they've been facing the lower-ranked offenses lately, with the exception of the Colts.

Opponents/Scored: NYJ(3), Buffalo(7), Tampa Bay(0), NYJ(21), Miami(28).

Note: The Patriots didn't really "try" against Miami, so their defense in the other four games is very impressive. They were healthy and completely shut the opposition down, including the NFC South Champions.

Josh Scobee: He is only 7-of-13 from over 40 yards this season. From 39-yards and shorter though, he's been solid.

Note: Nothing is too special about the Jaguars special teams. They are average at best.

Adam Vinatieri: Although he did not make a 50+ yard kick the entire season, there's no questioning his ability to come in the clutch.

Note: Similar to the Jaguars, the Patriots special teams is average at best. However, when you consider the experience of Vinatieri, the edge would certainly go to New England in that sense.

Going with Leftwich over Garrard is definitely a risky move. He hasn't played in several weeks, and you don't really know if the team has gotten too used to Garrard running the ball himself in recent weeks. However, since Leftwich shouldn't be a significant drop-off from Garrard even if he does struggle.

The Jaguars backfield may have a tough time doing a whole lot, but they will stay committed. The Patriots have stopped opposing running backs with ease as of late and get to the ball carrier quick.

The defense is the strength of the Jaguars, but they are also facing the second ranked offense in the league. They have a very good defensive line led by John Henderson, and their secondary is not going to bend easily.

The Jaguars are still a fairly young football team. They've got a relatively new coach, a young QB, and some young receivers to go along with their veterans. Despite being on the road, they won't be intimidated.

When it comes to quarterbacks, there's no one that you can rank higher than Tom Brady in today's game. He has won three Super Bowls in the past four years, something that you can't even dream about. He's not getting lucky either, he is simply a quarterback who plays outstanding in the postseason.

Early in the season, the Patriots running game was next to nothing. Dillon couldn't do anything, and then he got injured along with Faulk. The Patriots often went with the likes of Heath Evans, Patrick Pass, and even Amos Zeroue. In the past few weeks though, Dillon and Faulk have returned and performed as well as they did last year.

The Patriots pass defense ranking is a sign of what happened earlier in the year, when they were not very good. Just like their running game though, they Patriots have gotten healthy up front, allowing their secondary to have more freedom to make plays on the football. They may not be as good as last year, but their scheme has returned them to one of the best defenses in the NFL.

Although this game will ultimately come down to Brady's experience and the Patriots being at home, I stand by my point that the Jaguars will not be intimidated. When New England strikes once, the Jaguars will strike right back. Both defenses will give up big plays, but they will also force several turnovers. The Patriots will find a way to have possession of the football in the final five minutes of the game with either a tie or a small lead, and slowly drive down the field. They'll rely on their two players who are best in the clutch - either Brady or Vinatieri. Final Score: Patriots 27, Jaguars 20.