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- Ian Hetherington's NFL week 16 picks

Ian Hetherington December 20, 2006
Ian Hetherington
NFL Columnist

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Minnesota Vikings vs Green Bay Packers
Since the Vikes last played Green Bay, things haven’t improved much for them. That day the Packers consigned the Vikings to a three-game losing streak, that stretched another week to four games, and Minnesota have been 2-2 since then. Doesn’t make good reading, especially not when they’d have got themselves back into the NFC wild-card race with a win. Reduced to talking about it being “mathematically” possible and having benched their QB for a second-round rookie, Minnesota aren’t in a good way and the Packers have to win this one to keep themselves mathematically in the race too. Green Bay will take this by a couple of scores.

Kansas City Chiefs vs Oakland Raiders
I think this one explains itself. The Raiders aren’t very good, and the Chiefs are…. well, better than Oakland, certainly. The Oakland pass defence has been excellent, but whether they can keep doing that and stop Larry Johnson is another matter.

Baltimore Ravens vs Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh haven’t lost in the three games since their 27-0 drubbing in Baltimore, and defeats for Jacksonville, Kansas City and Cincinnati mean that they’re still in the hunt for a Wild Card position. Sure it’ll be tough, with two games left there are four teams with better records by a game (including divisional rivals and week 17’s opponents the Bengals) than them in the AFC, and another three on the same record (7-7). They’re going to need to win both of their remaining games though, and that means breaking down a miserly Ravens defence at Heinz Field. Baltimore have already got this division wrapped up, now they’ll want a win to keep themselves as challengers for home field advantage in week 17. Are they going to go all-out for that though, when they’re unlikely to get ahead of San Diego? No. I’d say not. And Pittsburgh are in a tight spot, needing a win desperately, and they’ll use the fact that Baltimore won’t want to risk players getting hurt at this stage and get a hugely important victory.

Carolina Panthers vs Atlanta Falcons
This isn’t a case of suddenly having faith in the Falcon’s offence (though Michael Vick was pretty damn good, wasn’t he?) after their game against Dallas. They put most of their points up in a single quarter after all. This pick is more about the fact that Carolina look like they couldn’t buy a win at the moment, and will struggle against an Atlanta team that’s fired up by the thought of a potential participation in the playoffs.

Chicago Bears vs Detroit Lions
The Bears simply aren’t going to let up enough –despite having home field advantage won- for the Lions to win this one. Even if the offence is taking it easier, the defence will get it done and stop the Lions doing too much damage. The Bears could win this one more emphatically than you’d think for a team who already have the best position in the playoffs booked.

Indianapolis Colts vs Houston Texans
Even if he was still playing “badly”, Peyton Manning would show David Carr up in this one. It’s not all Carr’s fault, he hardly has an elite group of receivers to work with, but a solitary touchdown since the first game in November is pretty atrocious. Especially considering he did fairly well in September and October… but alas, he’s turned things around and it looks like he and the Texans’ are going to snatch failure from the jaws of having a respectable season.

New England Patriots vs Jacksonville Jaguars
There are several factors contributing to this selection. Firstly, the Patriots still have to win one more to lock up the division, and so won’t be taking it easy yet. Secondly, even if they don’t get a lot of returns or that kind of big play for defensive scores, they’re still joint with Baltimore for least points allowed. Third, the Jags looked far too mistake-prone last week against Tennessee, and the Patriots are more likely to force those kind of mistakes instead of merely capitalising on them. Something that effected it but isn’t really a main issue is the potential injury to Maurice Jones-Drew (who, incidentally, is my pick for rookie of the year.)

New Orleans Saints vs New York Giants
A tale of two teams who I thought would win last week, but didn’t. My initial feeling here was the Giants, they at least looked more like scoring points than the Saints did last time out. But then I thought that every team has a blip, and perhaps they’ll come good with another massive performance from a player like Brees or Bush or somebody. But then…. Who’s to say the Giants won’t do the same? So I decided to look at it literally: Who would win in a fight between a saint and a giant? Unless the saint was sainted for the miracle of giant-slaying (which I doubt) you’d have to go for the giant. Nicknames are a good basis for sports predictions, right?

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Cleveland Browns
Did you know that English football (soccer) team Aston Villa (owned by Browns owner Randy Lerner) are playing host this weekend to Manchester United (owned by Bucs owner Malcolm Glazer)? Pretty spooky that two sports teams owned by Randy Lerner should be at home to two teams owned by Glazer. Coincidence? Who knows, but I can picture the scene, with Lerner and Glazer’s sons (as his sons travel to see the games more often) talking about the match. “Soccer’s weird isn’t it?” “Yeah… They don’t always stop after tackles or interceptions or anything. And where are rest of the players? They only have like… five guys by the bench!” And that’s without even starting to consider the poor souls trying to understand a heavy Birmingham (where Villa are from) dialect. Oh, I think the Browns will win this one. I’m a Manchester United fan so I’ll allow Lerner to win in the NFL game.

Tennessee Titans vs Buffalo Bills
Tennessee showed a sign that they may be developing into a good team. They played horribly last week but still found a way to win. If Titans fans need a reason to be confident about the team’s future, let that be it. Tennessee can still sneak into the playoffs, and they’ll allow themselves the best possible chance going into week 17 by getting a win (one way or another) against the Bills. It’ll be tough, it won’t be pretty, and none of the big-name playoff contenders will see much here to frighten them, but Tennessee’s tremendous revival will continue to put them in the mix in the final week of the regular season.

Washington Redskins vs Saint Louis Rams
The ‘Skins pattern at the moment seems to be; win, lose, lose, win, lose, lose, win. I’ll go with that. Steven Jackson leads the line with another fine performance, helping St. Louis keep their slim playoff hopes alive before they head to Minnesota next week. Campbell and Betts will have good games for Washington again, but a lack of consistency in the receiving department will hurt them.

Arizona Cardinals vs San Francisco 49ers
I already said last week I’m going to give up trying to predict the 49ers performances and stick to results. Arizona though, might be on a bit of a downer after their loss to Denver, that along with the 49ers having home advantage may swing the odds against them.

Cincinnati Bengals vs Denver Broncos
Cincinnati are edging the Broncos in most departments, and even giving Denver a little more credit for being at home and getting some players back from injury, I’m disappointed to say I don’t see them winning this one. Cutler has shown promise, but –despite Palmer being stopped by an exemplary Indianapolis defence on Monday- I don’t see him, Walker and Rod Smith out-doing Palmer, Johnson, Houshmanzadeh and Henry. In the running game, Johnson has had a decent season, but for the first time in quite a few weeks I think the Broncos might edge that, with Tatum and Mike Bell looking more solid again. This is crucial to Denver as it means they have their main running tandem at their disposal, and they should edge things on the run here. And finally, the Cincy defence (last week aside) has been excellent in recent weeks, and that along with the passing game should see them through with a crucial win.

San Diego Chargers vs Seattle Seahawks
The Chargers still have a reason to win, and so they will. Seattle are still only playing well in fits and starts, and will probably do a better job than many teams have of containing the Bolts. Having said that, they have lost to Arizona and San Francisco in their last two games. The Chargers will win this one and hope other results contrive to give them home field advantage.

***Game of the Week***
Philadelphia Eagles vs Dallas Cowboys
This should be a good game, both for entertainment and because of the tension, as this could decide whether the NFC East goes down to the wire. If Dallas win, they’re through, and will be challenging New Orleans to be second seed. If Philly win, it’ll go to week 17, where Dallas would need the Eagles to lose to Atlanta, as they would lose a head-to-head tie-breaker with them. If Philadelphia win and the Giants win then in week 17 there will still be three teams who could win the division, and the playoff situation would be even wider open than it is now. I think Dallas should tie it up in this game, but the Eagles could still cause an upset as Jeff Garcia has been playing like he was the starter all along.

New York Jets vs Miami Dolphins
I could happily put two bits of paper with “NY” written on one and “M” on the other into a hat and pull one out here. I’ve picked the Jets but there’s no certainty about that prediction whatsoever. I’m picking the Jets but don’t quote me on it.

NOTE: I'm sure, dear reader, you will be devastated to know that I won't be able to post a column next week as I am away for Christmas, and won't have internet access readily available. But wait! Fear not! No need to throw your PC out of the window in ill-supressed rage, as for next week a picks column will be written and posted by my brother-in-law. It was him who got me watching NFL, and so he's indirectly responsible for my ramblings being posted on here every week. Obviously he's not quite as good at me as the predictions (otherwise I'd be covering him, wouldn't I, eh?) but he's got far more experience and knowledge of the NFL than me. And he has a beard, so he must be clever.


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