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- Ian Hetherington's week 15 picks

Ian Hetherington December 14, 2006
Ian Hetherington
NFL Columnist

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San Francisco 49ers vs Seattle Seahawks
I give up trying to analyse the 49ers in any way, shape or form for this season. I put off picking them much (because I thought they were over-achieving as it was), and they frequently won or at least ran games much closer than I’d have guessed. I finally get a game last week where I think they should win… and they muff it up. So I’m going to pick Seattle, and you won’t hear any more from me on the matter.

Dallas Cowboys vs Atlanta Falcons
Uh oh. All isn’t quite as rosy in the Romo-n Empire as it once was. After a great start, Tony Romo has been slowed right down in the past couple of weeks against the Giants and the Saints. In five starts prior to week 13, he had a shade under 1400 passing yards, ten touchdown passes, just two interceptions, average completion percentage of 71.42 and an average QB rating of 116.7. From week 13 and 14, he has one touchdown, four interceptions, a solid 506 passing yards, 53.7% completion and an average QB rating of 58.4. Stats don’t tell a full story, but that ain’t good. Atlanta beat Tampa Bay and Washington in those same two weeks, but Michael Vick isn’t likely to have the same impact through the air as Drew Brees did for the Saints, and that could be a huge factor as while McAllister racked up plenty of yards, the ‘Boys still only allowed one rushing touchdown. The performances of Romo and Vick should be what decides this one, and shaky as he’s been the last two weeks, I’m more prepared to put a bet on him than Mike Vick.

Cleveland Browns vs Baltimore Ravens
This game promises to have a big impact on the outcome of AFC North and potentially the Wild Card spots. If Cleveland win, that leaves Cincinnati open to try and close the gap at the top. If Baltimore win, they maintain a healthy two game lead (at least) and would then be just a victory away from securing the division. And I think the latter is the more likely scenario. The Browns haven’t consistently been as good as they perhaps should be this year, and even though they’re basically done this season and have little to play for (and thus should have more of a feeling of freedom about their play) they’ll struggle against the Baltimore defence. The Ravens should win this one and then sit back and hope the Bengals lose on Monday. Even though that would mean home-field-advantage rivals Indianapolis would still be level with them.

Detroit Lions vs Green Bay Packers
Any hopes they had of divine intervention helping them somehow challenge for a Wild Card spot should be as good as over for the Packers after this week. But (without sitting and working out every permutation of week 15 results) I believe there is still a mathematical chance of a Wild Card spot. Unlikely as it is, they still have to go out and win this game, and let the other results take care of themselves, and I think that -if nothing else- will lead them through this one.

Houston Texans vs New England Patriots
The Houston Texans are just the latest team to fall victim to the efforts of Vince Young. He put the nail in the coffin of a game this time though, as he burst through for 39 yards to get a touchdown in overtime. That has to sting pretty badly for the Texans, but they’re up against a team not looking in the best shape themselves. With injuries piling up (Watson, Maroney, Seau, Wilfork to name some of the list) and a humiliatingly impotent performance against Miami, it’s got to go one of two ways here. I’ve no doubt the Pats will get to the playoffs one way or another, but once there they’re either going to spectacularly fail or they’ll do what the Patriots have been known for in recent years. Playing as though they’re completely oblivious to pressure and improving their game a hell of a lot. It has to start with a win here though, leaving them in prime position to take the decision. I don’t see them exploding back to life, but they’ll do enough to beat Houston.

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Tennessee Titans
I’ve found this to be one of the toughest games to pick this week. The Titans obviously have the edge in terms of form, with four straight wins (including the Giants and Colts). Jacksonville have two straight wins (they also beat the Colts), and they made Indianapolis look very bad last week. I would say recently that the Jags have a defensive edge though, and with the offences of both teams looking good (though David Garrard’s performances fluctuate), that could be the difference-maker. Should be a great game for big plays though. Jacksonville hold on by a couple of points as the Titans don’t manage to get the game-saving field goal this time.

Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills
I picked losses for both of these teams in week 14 and they both won. I wasn’t entirely surprised by either result, though, with the Dolphins resurgent through the past weeks and Buffalo against a Jets team that’s incapable of playing the same two weeks in a row, it would seem. Still, after 5-1 in the last six weeks, the Fins will be buoyed by a win over the Patriots, coupled with Harrington looking more and more comfortable in his role (surely it’ll be his next season no matter what happens with Culpepper?) and you get a recipe for the Dolphins to improbably finish week 15 with a .500 win-loss percentage.

New York Jets vs Minnesota Vikings
I’m not quite sure how these two teams have got to this point with the records they have (surely Minnesota would have been predicted to have a winning record at this point and not the Jets!?) but this is a crunch fixture for both of them. The Jets need to win games now to keep Cincinnati and Jacksonville within touching distance for a Wild Card slot, and Minnesota need to win games to maintain any slim hope of getting to the post season. I think this will be a game that frustrates both teams, as the Jets lose and their ambitions are dampened, and Minnesota win but are still too far behind to realistically be in with a shot.

Philadelphia Eagles vs New York Giants
Losing their week 12 and 13 games by field goals, and with those two field goals allowing a combined total of seven seconds on the clock, the Giants got the kick up the backside they needed to go ahead and beat the Panthers in Carolina. The trick now, certainly with Dallas having been pounded by the Saints and holding only a one game lead over them, is to keep that performance up and keep winning. They face a Philly team who’re without their leader, but have still put two wins together in the last few weeks to keep them firmly in NFC East and playoff contention. The Giants are better than Washington though, and will make things much more difficult for Philly. This should be a decent game, but I think that the Giants could make a few big plays through the first half to set them up for a win here.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Carolina Panthers
When predicting Steelers results for the past five or six weeks, my gut feeling has served me well, so I’m going to trust it and pick Pittsburgh here. The Panthers are struggling, while Pittsburgh are playing some their best football thus far, and can look forward to the prospect of Hines Ward probably returning in this game. Carolina aren’t completely out of the running for a Wild Card berth, but it’s looking pretty unlikely, and Pittsburgh are in the same situation. Although the Panthers have the home field advantage, I’m going to go for the Steelers as that was my first instinct, and I think they’re playing well enough to take this game by the scruff of the neck and dominate.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Chicago Bears
They’ve got the division, and they’ve got a first-round bye, but with their offence still not the well-oiled machine the Bears coaching staff would like it to be (42 points is all well and good, but you can’t rely on two kick-offs being returned for TDs every game) they’ll want home advantage too if they can get it, and they need to keep winning if they want that (New Orleans are the only remaining NFC team who could catch up with the Bears.) Whatever happens, I really don’t think Tampa, who looked so toothless against Atlanta, are going to be anywhere close to a win in Chicago.

Washington Redskins vs New Orleans Saints
The ‘Skins aren’t looking great, whereas the Saints are still enjoying the high they’ve been on since their emotional return to New Orleans at the start of the year. The two teams rushing Ds are pretty similar, but New Orleans have a far pass defence, and facing Drew Brees after seeing what he did to Dallas must be daunting for Washington. Form, man-for-man ability and home advantage all go in the Saints’ favour here, and I’m not going to pick a surprise in this one. New Orleans by two scores.

Denver Broncos vs Arizona Cardinals
Arizona are enjoying a decent run at the moment, having won three out of four games. Denver, by contrast, are suffering their worst form of the season as their losing streak was increased to four last week. Having got three tough divisional games out of the way in that time, they really have to look at this game as a chance to re-assert their claim for an AFC Wild Card position. With players on both sides of the ball shaking off injuries and both Tatum Bell and Jay Cutler looking better last week, I think they’ll do just that. Arizona will score touchdowns, but the Broncos defence will give the most solid performance we’ve seen out of it in weeks and the offence will do the rest.

Kansas City Chiefs vs San Diego Chargers
San Diego already have the division, but there’s still home field advantage to play for, and don’t think that MVP-in-waiting LaDainian Tomlinson doesn’t want to break Paul Hornung’s forty-plus year old single-season points record (176.) The LaDainian show continues as the Chargers win. Larry Johnson experiences the rare feeling (for him) of being upstaged.

Saint Louis Rams vs Oakland Raiders
While they got pounded by the Bears (although the efforts of record-breaking kickoff-return specialist Devin Hester possibly flattered Chicago a little) the Rams at least looked like a team capable of winning games last week. They’ll put a decent performance together in Oakland, and add to the Raiders six game losing-streak. The Raiders shouldn’t be pulled apart in this game, but their resistance won’t be enough.

***Game of the Week***
Cincinnati Bengals vs Indianapolis Colts
This might be the first time I’ve picked against my pre-season Super Bowl prediction so far, but I can’t not. Rudi Johnson is more than capable of hurting the atrocious Indy rushing defence (see Jones-Drew and Taylor from their last game against Jacksonville), and just when they’re trying to stop him, Palmer can always throw it to Johnson, Houshmanzadeh or Henry. I assumed Indy would be back on form last week but they were poor, so I’m not going to make that assumption (though I’m not denying that Cincy could be the unfortunate victims of a Manning Backlash.) In their four game winning streak, the Bengals have allowed just 33 points, and we all know what they’re capable of on offence, and I don’t know if this Colts team are (at this moment in time) up to the task.


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