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- Ian's NFL Week 11 picks: The Bengals are back?

Ian Hetherington November 16, 2006
Ian Hetherington
NFL Columnist

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Game-by-game predictions



I really ought to stop making some of the claims I do when I’m working on what I think and not any real justified basis. Will I stop doing it? Probably not… but you’ll have to read on and find out. Time is pressing, so I’m afraid there’ll be no full column this week, but panic not! You’ll still get the benefit of my wisdom (or guesses, you decide) for this week’s matches.

Atlanta Falcons vs Baltimore Ravens
The problem with Michael Vick, is that even after a performance as messy as his against the Browns was, you can never quite bring yourself to fully count him out. None the less, I don’t see the Dr. Jekyll Vick making the game against Baltimore, as they’re mostly a well-drilled defence (by the way, what the heck happened against Tennessee??) and will have plans for Vick. Add to that home field advantage, and the sort of character they showed against the Titans, and Baltimore might stroll this one.

Buffalo Bills vs Houston Texans
I guess I doomed Jacksonville the moment I said they’d beat the Texans without too much bother. But there we are, such is life. Houston put in a less than spectacular performance that was enough to beat a less spectacular and far more error-strewn performance from the Jags (four interceptions will kill you), but that might not be enough to beat the Bills. Sure, Indianapolis make a habit of not being in the lead at half time, but the Bills still held them to within a point which isn’t to be sniffed at. You’d think if the Bills D can hold the Colts to 17 (to make up for a weak offence) then they ought to against Houston, but of course it doesn’t always work like that, and I think the Texans will seriously raise their game as they try to prove the wins against Jacksonville aren’t a flash in the pan, and will ultimately get the win.

Chicago Bears vs New York Jets
I was mightily impressed with the manner of the Bears’ victory in New York on Sunday night. I’d expected a Giants win, and thought that even if the Bears did win it would be in a tight, closely fought tooth-and-nail sort of victory. To their credit, they came into the second half 13-10 down, totally opened the game up with passing touchdowns and took it from there for an 18-point victory by the close of the game. The Jets also surprised me. I happily wrote in my week 10 picks that the Patriots are still a very good team and that the Jets wouldn’t (thankfully I fell short of saying “couldn’t”) beat them. I was definitely wrong on the second count, and I’m starting to have my doubts about the first part. But let’s not take the shine off this for New York too much, a win in Foxboro is no mean feat, and they’ll need all the confidence they can glean from that performance if they’re to slow down the Bears, and they might slow them, but they won’t stop them. Not this week I’m afraid. Oh dear, I’ve gone and done it. Does anybody else sense an upset now I’ve said that?

***Game of the Week***
Cincinnati Bengals vs New Orleans Saints
Of course the Bengals looked like a devastating offensive force. How could they not after I’d consigned them to another struggled and dropped Chad Johnson from my fantasy line-up? Bah. Anyway, this is an incredibly tricky decision. A Bengals team with an offence that looks to have finally bounced back, and where it’s two biggest weapons (Palmer and Johnson) look like they’re finally clicking again? Or a New Orleans team that created some offensive fireworks of their own as they gave the champions a run for their money in Pittsburgh? Well, Baltimore proved that the Saints are no longer “unbeatable” at the Superdome, and I have a good feeling that the Bengals’ flexing of their point-scoring muscle wasn’t the last we’ll see of it. Carson Palmer and Chad Johnson hook up brilliantly again to outdo Brees and Colston for a Bengals road win.

Indianapolis Colts vs Dallas Cowboys
I wouldn’t be surprised if there’s a few people prepared to give this to Dallas on the basis of Indy only getting a 1 point win over Buffalo, but I intend to do no such thing. I simply see that as another example this season of the Colts getting the job done when they don’t play at their best, and after beating the Broncos and the Patriots on the road, who can blame them for taking their foot off the gas a little at home to the Bills? Dallas put a defeat to Washington behind them with a good win over Arizona, but I haven’t seen much evidence yet to suggest that they’re ready to take on the Colts and win. Sure, their D is more than able to slow down Indianapolis, and they’ve got an offence that can make any defence concerned, but if Indy feel threatened then they’ll turn it up a notch and make it 10-0, despite the best efforts of Romo, Owens and company.

Minnesota Vikings vs Miami Dolphins
If you’d told me a few weeks ago I’d be picking Miami to beat Minnesota I’d have guffawed heartily in your face and, with a derisory sneer, gone back to whatever I was doing. And yet, here I am. So the Vikes lost to New England, big deal, lots of teams do. It’s the 9-3 defeat to San Francisco and getting beaten on their own turf by Green Bay that’s giving me my doubts about them, and after Miami shocked the NFL by brushing aside Chicago and then last week allowing the Chiefs with a measly 10 points to get a 13-10 win, perhaps it’ll be a case of these two teams respective momentum and nothing more that decides this result. Miami will be the best of a bad lot and get the win to take their streak to three games.

New England Patriots vs Green Bay Packers
I don’t care that New England lost to the Jets and that the Packers are 3-1 since their bye week, I simply can’t bring myself to believe that defeat for the Patriots was anything more than a blip or that the Packers are suddenly a dominating force because they finally beat a decent team. The Patriots will be back to their usual efficient form today, and I’d put good money on them not leaving this game with a three game losing streak.

Oakland Raiders vs Kansas City Chiefs
Forget about these two teams’ respective previous games. Done it? Good. The Chiefs will win this and win it well to keep whoever loses between Denver and San Diego within arm’s reach, and to further cement Oakland’s spot at the foot of the AFC West. Larry Johnson won’t have anywhere near the problems that Denver’s not-quite-fit Tatum Bell had against the Oakland D, and could run riot as he looks to add to the 10 rushing touchdowns he already has this year.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cleveland Browns
Now that’s more like it. Ok, the Steelers’ defence was still a little loose at times, but they scored big without turning the ball over a lot, which means they might just be starting to win half of the battle. Cleveland beat a poor Atlanta team last week, but didn’t look particularly good while doing it. Still, a win is a win and they’ll have to take everything from that that they can as they prepare for this game, and they have reason to be concerned as once more Pittsburgh are finally showing signs of waking up. The biggest problem for the Browns might not be how to score, unless something impressive has happened in a week they should get opportunities to do that (not least with the “questionable” status of Troy Polamalu after his concussion), but how to contain Pittsburgh’s various offensive weapons if they’re on form again. This is a game that may start out close as the Browns are well-drilled in their game plans and know how to spot a weakness, but that’ll be in vain this time out as I see the Steelers pulling away from them slowly but surely as time passes, leaving them with a stress-free win by the end of the day.

St. Louis Rams vs Carolina Panthers
The Rams must be sick and tired of losing to late field goals from Seattle Seahawks kicker Josh Brown. Still, they can’t dwell on that too much as they have a visit to the dangerous Panthers to worry about, and worry they should. After a poor start on MNF against Tampa Bay, Carolina came out in the second half and got the job done very comfortably, as they ended with a 24-10 win. The Panthers’ offensive threat is what’ll give them the victory here… they’re inconsistent on defence but St. Louis are inconsistent on both sides of the ball, and without a win since week 5, I doubt they’re in any frame of mind to be beating Carolina. They should finally get out of this rut though next week against the 49ers.

Tennessee Titans vs Philadelphia Eagles
After dragging themselves out of a poor run of form to beat Washington, the Eagles now have to look up at the Giants, make the most of their loss to the Bears and try to take a shot at the top spot in NFC East, and a home game against the Titans is a good game to try and do just that. Sure, Tennessee and Vince Young gave Baltimore a tough time, but the key thing is that they failed to close out the game, and that’s what’s going to cost them in the near future as Vince Young continues to grow into his role. After being comfortable against the Redskins last week, the Eagles should manage a similar performance in this game as they start to try and build up a head of steam for the playoffs.

Washington Redskins vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Jason Campbell is finally in. Mark Brunell is finally out. Oh, but then so is Clinton Portis… on IR with a broken hand. I really can’t justifiably pick Washington (I’m not sure I would have anyway after a dire performance against the Eagles) when I know very little about their new quarterback other than that he’s never played a regular season game and he had a good season or two in college. Betts is a decent back-up for Portis, but whether he has the game-changing ability is yet to be seen. Still, he might do for this week, but he needs to do well to take some of the pressure off Jason Campbell. Bruce Gradkowski could have a good game against Washington, and I think he’ll be a key man in a Buccaneers win.

Detroit Lions vs Arizona Cardinals
I have a feeling this might be it. The Lions struggled at home against the 49ers and lost, whereas Arizona also lost at home, scoring 3 less points than Detroit, but doing it against Dallas. Yes, I think Matt Leinart might be ready to take his first NFL win. He’s had a tough time as he’s begun his tenure as Arizona’s quarterback, and this is unlikely to be a walk in the park, but I have a feeling (for no good reason, I should probably add) that the Cards (who have far too much talent to be the NFL’s worst team) will force through a win over Detroit here, to give them a little boost in what is inevitably going to end up a dreary season.

Seattle Seahawks vs San Francisco 49ers
I’ve already mentioned the dying-moments win that Seattle enjoyed over St. Louis, and it’s that sort of force of will that has helped them stay atop the NFC West despite injury woes, and after beating the Rams gave them a healthy cushion between themselves and both the Rams and 49ers, a trip to San Francisco should help them solidify that position further. The 49ers are 4-5, and may be entering the ‘Hawks visit with two wins on the bounce, but in neither of them did they look much like a playoff or divisional hopeful, and one of those was more of a stumble past Minnesota which saw them win 9-3. They don’t have enough to offer to beat Seattle, and their chances of getting their record up to .500 will slip further after a defeat here.

San Diego Chargers vs Denver Broncos
As a Denver fan it’s hard for me to make this call at the moment without seeming biased, but I can assure you I’m going to do just that. I’m going for a Broncos win for several reasons. First, as much as they’ve looked awful in some games this year (Oakland twice, Kansas… all divisional games, worryingly), they’ve got the job done, and they’ve also risen to the occasion against the really big teams such as Indy (who beat them by a hair), New England and Pittsburgh (who admittedly still weren’t at their best, but Denver looked good). Second, they’re at home, and I think this will be crucial. Third, in divisional games this year, they’ve got the job done. But don’t think I’m discounting the Chargers as a huge threat, oh no. With Rivers playing great and LaDainian Tomlinson looking damn near unstoppable at times it would be dumb to think they can’t win this. Not least considering they’ve only scored less than 23 points once this season to date, but Denver’s defence (which, granted, has been less miserly in recent weeks and is missing a few players) is the best they’ll have faced so far. I foresee a game similar to when Indianapolis faced the Colts, but this time with Denver nudging ahead as the defence does a solid job, and the offence improves enough to capitalise.

New York Giants vs Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville are too inconsistent for my liking. They have a reasonable record, but in some of the games they’ve won (Pittsburgh, Philadelphia) you’ve got the feeling it’s more because the opposition has underperformed rather than on any great merit of their own. They’ll face a torrid time against a Giants team that wants to make sure Dallas and Philadelphia don’t get any closer to them and who will bounce back after being soundly beaten at home by a rampant Bears performance. Jacksonville will do okay, but they’ll be outshone in the key areas as New York keep top spot in the NFC East and take another step toward the playoffs.


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