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- Ian's Week 14 picks: Saints vs Cowboys

Ian Hetherington December 7, 2006
Ian Hetherington
NFL Columnist

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Cleveland Browns vs Pittsburgh Steelers
Having picked their results correctly in recent weeks, I’m almost (almost) beginning to feel I have the Steelers sussed out a little. That, of course, is the perfect cue for the Browns to go ahead and win as I’m about to predict a defeat for them. If it’s Charlie Frye at QB then I don’t see him killing off the Steelers any more than he did last time. If it’s Derek Anderson who came on when Frye hurt his wrist… well, he passed his first task of helping bring the Browns back in the 4th quarter (and lead them to an overtime win) with flying colours for a guy signed off waivers. But can he go to Pittsburgh and do it to them? I’d say not. Pittsburgh can’t afford to lose any games unless Cincy collapse, and they’ll keep working after another win here.

Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Falcons still look as though if they can overcome their consistency issues they’ll be in a good position for a Wild Card spot. Tampa Bay aren’t going to qualify now short of divine intervention, so their purpose really is to regain a little pride and try to throw a spanner in the works of the NFC South with a few divisional wins. Atlanta should be improved by a determination to secure a playoff spot, though, and get a relatively stress-free victory here.

Baltimore Ravens vs Kansas City Chiefs
I’m not going to talk about this game too much, because I might yet change my mind between the time of writing and when this gets posted. So, I’m picking the Chiefs as they’re at home, Trent Green looks to be back in business (and possibly like he was never gone) after his performance against the Browns, and Larry Johnson is still getting it done on the ground.

Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets
Buffalo didn’t create a lot of chances last week against San Diego, they just made sure they were very efficient with the red-zone drives they did make (getting a RZ efficiency of 3-3-100%). The Jets on the other hand, created a host of chances and took most of them. Now, that was admittedly against Green Bay, who aren’t quite the Chargers. So Buffalo got one less red zone touchdown against the Chargers than the Jets did against Green Bay. You’d think I was setting up to pick the Bills here, wouldn’t you?

Indianapolis Colts vs Jacksonville Jaguars
The Colts not having the same air of invincibility as they had (prior to week 14) last season might do them some good. They should by now be realising that they can’t steam-roller teams, they need to grind out results where necessary and the defence has to dig in and do a much better job of containing teams. This week they face Jacksonville, a team who seem determined to do the exact opposite of what I predict.Mustn’t grumble, I suppose (I'm hardly the only one who's had trouble with picks this year). The Colts really need to move up a gear for a few games until they have a playoff spot secured, and they need Peyton Manning to stop making these uncharacteristic mistakes and get back in his groove for the playoffs if the Colts are to make more of an impact in the post-season this year. Jacksonville will cause problems though, and I’d imagine both Jones-Drew and Taylor will cause the poorly organised Indy D more than a few worries.

Minnesota Vikings vs Detroit Lions
The Minnesota defence will create plenty of chances for the offence (as it did against Chicago), but the question this week is whether they can put the points up on the board after creating those openings for themselves. As for Detroit, we know they can get good numbers… sometimes. They managed a combined total of 33 points in weeks 10-12$ (against the 49ers, Cardinals and Dolphins) but then got 21, and nearly took the game, against the Patriots. I’d love to say that’s helped me make a decision, but it hasn’t to be honest. Minnesota are only a game off the pace of the other NFC Wild Card teams, and I think they’ll hold onto that with a win here.

New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins
I’d have most likely gone for the Patriots in this one anyway, but a dire home performance against the Jags (dire due to a poor running game and not being able to get enough out of the work of Joey Harrington and Chris Chambers) has strengthened my confidence in this pick. The Patriots scraped by Detroit in a game where they also didn’t do enough with the yards they amassed through the air, they got three touchdowns from a rushing game that wasn’t spectacular. And that’s the key. Doing enough when you’re not playing well. The Pats aren’t to burst out of the blocks here, instead they’ll play a calm game due to not having tied up their division yet. The Dolphins’ season is done, so they’re playing for pride and without having to worry so much about the consequences, so they might break out to an early lead but whether they do or not, New England will get the job done and strengthen their AFC East position.

***Game of the Week***
New Orleans Saints vs Dallas Cowboys
I’ve liked New Orleans this season, they spread the ball around, mix up the plays a little, their defence is ok and capable of making some big plays and they have an offence that’s good to watch. They should be thankful that they have a two game jump on Carolina and Atlanta, though. A tighter divisional race coupled with a visit to Dallas isn’t exactly a mouth-watering prospect for a Saints team who know in the back of their mind that -with a few slip ups- missing out on the post-season isn’t out of the question. Dallas have a strong position in NFC East following a close win over the Giants, but Tony Romo will have to do better this week to prevent any potential victory being as tight as it was last week. Dallas by a touchdown.

New York Giants vs Carolina Panthers
Two teams with stuttering offence and inconsistent defence. Wonderful. Well, I think it will probably come down to the performances of the quarterbacks. On the one hand you have Manning the Younger, who showed flashes of the player he can be at his best against Dallas. On the other you have Delhomme who only has four more touchdowns than interceptions this season and… oh, but so does Manning… just that he has more of both. What to do, what to do. Ok, I’ll pick the Giants for a slightly better passing game (sort of…) but I’m not fully sold on it.

Oakland Raiders vs Cincinnati Bengals
I’ll give Oakland the benefit of the doubt and say they might provide Cincinnati with a tougher game than you might think (as they did with all three of their divisional rivals, recently.) But will they win? No. As the race for an AFC Wild Card spot hots up, and with Baltimore still holding a two-game divisional lead over them, the Bengals still have everything to play for, and if Cincinnati maintain their form then I don’t see Oakland coming up with nearly enough to stop them or break them.

Philadelphia Eagles vs Washington Redskins
Philly got the win they need to keep going this week, whereas Washington added another poor defeat to their list of woes, as Atlanta came back from a 14-0 1st quarter deficit to win 24-14. That’s why I’m picking Philly. I’d love to be more in depth, but whenever I try it in games I’m unsure about it invariably blows up in my face.

Tennessee Titans vs Houston Texans
Vince Young is growing as a player every week, and has shown himself more than capable of handling the pressure of being a starter and making big plays. Confidence will be riding high in Tennessee with a three-game winning streak (Philadelphia, New York Giants, Indianapolis… big teams) that will only improve their performance. Houston are just as inconsistent as they’ve been all season, and while they should break double figures offensively, I don’t think they’ll have enough on D to stop another exuberant performance from the Titans.

Green Bay Packers vs San Francisco 49ers
I wanted to predict a win for San Francisco last week after I haven’t been giving them the credit they possibly deserve, so here’s my chance. 49ers to beat Green Bay by double figures with Frank Gore to start (despite a shin problem that has him down as “Probable” at the time of writing) and star in the game. Hurray!

Seattle Seahawks vs Arizona Cardinals
I can’t decide whether to put Arizona’s big win over the Rams was due to good play by the Cards or poor play from St. Louis. Perhaps a little of both, as the Cardinals didn’t have many stand-out individual performances offensively to show for their thirty-four point haul and the Rams passing game was very sloppy. For Seattle, Hasselbeck and Alexander weren’t quite as good last week as in week 12, though Alexander still had a solid performance. And yet… I still feel myself giving my prediction to Seattle. That in spite of the fact that I feel Arizona should –based on man-for-man quality- be more than capable of winning these games regularly. And in spite of Seattle having a bunch of niggling injuries that may not be much cause for concern on their own, but when built up throughout the team might have a detrimental knock-on effect. Oh, what the hell. I’ll pick Arizona, though I have a feeling I may live to regret it.

Denver Broncos vs San Diego Chargers
This is basically the same situation as the last time the two teams met, with two exceptions. Firstly, I’m going to be more realistic this time. Secondly, Denver now have a rookie quarterback to try and bed in, and a vital game against division-leaders San Diego is hardly a game for a young quarterback to try and get a feel for things. Unless there is a major, major improvement in the Denver running game to take some of the strain off Jay Cutler and the Denver D can regain some of it’s imposing early-season performance then San Diego should probably win this handily.

Chicago Bears vs St. Louis Rams
The Bears have already secured their division, but they ought to keep going for a few weeks to try and tie u home field advantage. St. Louis are under-achieving, but after being beaten soundly by Arizona, I don’t think they’ll come out –home field advantage or otherwise- and hurt the Bears.


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