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- Ian's week 12 picks and views

Ian Hetherington November 23, 2006
Ian Hetherington
NFL Columnist

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So the Colts have fallen…. But can even that be classed as a real surprise? Not really. I picked them to win, I really thought that they’d do what it took and get the victory some way, but I can’t say I’m stunned by the result. The Cowboys are a good team, and they beat the Colts with good solid hard work. Peyton Manning looked about as ordinary as I’ve ever seen him. He’s one of those players who when he’s at his very best there’s little stopping him, but on Sunday, whereas he might have just been “pretty good” against another team, the Cowboys made the most of it. They picked him off twice, they rushed him, they hassled him, they made him fumble and they sacked him twice, and he didn’t like it at all. The defence did it’s job (including scoring from one of the afore-mentioned interceptions) and the offence did enough to secure the victory and give the entire team a huge boost as it looks to hunt down the Giants in the NFC East… surely it’s only other rival after McNabb went out for the season again.

Elsewhere in week 11, there was the usual sprinkling of surprises that we’ve become accustomed to this season: Seattle falling to the 49ers, Tennessee taking the game in Philly, St. Louis’ complete no-show in Carolina. But the other main stories for me were San Diego, who I’ll discuss later, and New England. After losing at home to the Colts and then the Jets, there were murmurings of whether the Patriots were all of a sudden a poor team. A ridiculous notion, and one that they hopefully put to bed with this utterly domineering display against the Packers, setting up what should be a heck of a game against the Bears next week (and one that I’m sorely disappointed I won’t get to see.)

The individual story of the past couple of games is Chad Johnson. After a poor season thus far, he’s suddenly burst into life –and into the top spot of the league receivers list- with 450 yards and 5 touchdowns in two games. If he and Carson Palmer continue to hook up like this (and why shouldn’t they?) then there’s a few teams on the Cincy schedule who ought to start hoping for a Palmer-Johnson off day, because they’re looking pretty unstoppable just now.

Broncos report
Even at home, a loss to San Diego is nothing to be ashamed of, especially when LaDainian Tomlinson (who incidentally, had never won in Denver prior to the game last Sunday) is in such supreme form. Still, there are concerns for Denver as they sit second in AFC West with a 7-3 record. Firstly, is that the defence which had been taking care of things so well earlier in the season simply isn’t holding up as well against the more established point-scoring teams. Ok, you’d expect that, but they’re letting by A LOT more points… though perhaps they’re really feeling the injuries to the likes of linebacker Ian Gold and other players on both sides of the ball. All was going well as the Broncos safely built up a 24-7 lead. But then it came. The backlash that more teams than the Broncos have felt against the Chargers, as San Diego suddenly explode and are as near to uncontainable as it’s gonna get. Denver’s offence is still as up and down as it has been all season, though 28 points is a respectable display they require more week-in, week-out from Plummer. Overall though, there’s no reason to worry just yet. There are worse times to play Kansas than this Thursday and they’re currently in pole position for a wild card spot in the AFC providing they don’t wrest control of the division back from San Diego.

Draft stars


While I usually talk here about how the players at the top end of the draft –Bush, Leinart, Young, those kinds of draftees- have been doing, I think it’s time to talk about Marques Colston. Of course, with my usual impeccable timing I’ve chosen to write about him after the game where he got injured and left the game and didn’t get a yard out of it, but I’ll not worry about that. He’s undoubtedly been the star rookie thus far this season, for my money. Big, strong, good hands and making the most of those attributes to be one of the league’s leading receivers is no mean feat, but Colston has managed it breathlessly, outshining his fellow draftee Reggie Bush… who was picked 250 places before him. The real challenge for Colston will be whether going into the latter stages of the season (and a potential playoff spot) and through next season he can do the same as he has thus far when teams will be factoring him into their game plans a lot more.

Bold predictions
My pre-season predictions are something I’m probably going to wish I could forget about… but cowering behind our failure isn’t what we do here at PFC… we wear our mistakes like a badge of honour! Or something….

-I’m not going to go into a panic about my Colts-for-the-Super-Bowl prediction after one defeat, for a little while in that game I didn think they might drag a result out of it.

-Cardinals as “most improved” NFL team. Well, they got their second win and so are no longer the official worst NFL team! Hurray for me!

-Denver’s place in the AFC championship game is looking less solid by the week as performances fluctuate and the Chargers take a lead in the AFC West, but it’s still a possibility if they can produce consistently… 28 against the Chargers isn’t a bad tally after all, it was just the inability to stem the tide of the San Diego counter-attack that worries me a little.

-I said the Redskins would be the most disappointing team in the NFL, I feel justified in that at the moment but I’ll not comment too much more until we’ve seen more playing time from Jason Campbell.

Random thoughts and predictions



-San Diego will fall at home to Oakland. Just kidding!

-Brian Westbrook will be the key man against Indianapolis in the absence of McNabb.

-Speaking of McNabb, he really needs to finish the season next year (if he plays) before his confidence is totally shot at.

-Peyton Manning won’t look so “average” (by his standards) against the Eagles this week. I think Philly should just try to hold and get the hell out of Indianapolis with whatever they can get.

-Tom Brady (if he’s on form like he was against Green Bay) versus the Bears defence is a mouth-watering prospect.

-AFC West being a “competition” could be less arguable if Kansas beat Denver and San Diego beat Oakland.

-Miama have a real chance of hauling themselves a little closer to a .500 record, but don’t go expecting any late-season miracles, Fins Fans.

Game-by-game predictions



Miami Dolphins vs Detroit Lions
Detroit seem to be going downhill. Ok, so the games they lose are still relatively close and games that a score going the other way could change things entirely, but I feel the games they’ve been losing to by those small margins more recently (Arizona, San Francisco) are against poorer teams than at the start of the season (St. Louis, Chicago). They almost seem to be easing out of the final stretch of the season, rather than gearing up for it. Miami are the total opposite, they’ve strung three wins together and will be looking to this game as a potential fourth. It’s momentum versus momentum here, and I think Miami’s should carry them through.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Dallas Cowboys
I think this is a bit of a no-brainer. Tampa have a less-than-ok team this year, not aided by injuries, and even looking at their win over Washington, do you really see any players who you think are going to strike fear into the hearts of Dallas? I certainly don’t, whereas Dallas have plenty to work with, and need a win to set them up for a conference trip to New York in week 13.

Denver Broncos versus Kansas City
I’m making this pick with a lot of the reason being Trent Green. I don’t see him back to form on Thursday after being so poor just four days earlier on Sunday, and if it’s Damon Huard I believe he’s manageable… but it’ll probably be Trent anyway, meaning once again all the pressure is on Larry Johnson. Johnson can handle that pressure, but I don’t see him tearing apart the Broncos defence.

Arizona Cardinals vs Minnesota Vikings
This is a bit of a toughie, but I’m going to go with the Vikings to break their losing streak. I correctly picked the Cardinals last week, but I don’t know if they’re quite “there” yet, and if they’re not a visit to Minnesota won’t be an easy one, and I think the Vikings, desperate for a win, will pull something a bit more convincing out of the bag this week.

Carolina Panthers vs Washington Redskins
Jason Campbell was solid last week but where’s his support? He doesn’t have a target who’s going to outdo Steve Smith and the rushing game is missing Portis badly, so he’s not going to get as much support as he may need from that. It might not be as simple as you’d think, but Carolina will get the win that makes sure New Orleans can’t overtake them based on win-loss record.

***Game of the Week***
Chicago Bears vs New England Patriots

This should be the game of the week, without a shadow of a doubt. But what’ll make or break it is this: Which Chicago Bears will turn up? Will it be the Bears with a quarterback that dissects defences and fills the holes he finds with touchdown passes, or the Bears with a quarterback who looks almost hapless at times? Obviously, we don’t know. And even if Grossman is having one of his off weeks, the Bears D and the running game are capable of holding the fort. And what about the Patriots? Well, their crushing of Green Bay has proven one thing. Not that they’re still a good team, we knew that. Not that Brady is still capable of destroying defences, because we knew that too. No, what it proved was that the Patriots do still have that hunger to succeed. They’re a successful franchise, and successful teams really do not like losing, and their high-scoring, shut-out win over the Packers was a clear signal of their intentions. But can they beat the Bears? Yes. They can beat anybody on their day, and despite an impressive 9-1 record the Bears have looked less than invincible at times this year. I think the home advantage (with their shiny new field) should give New England that little extra edge, and I see them getting the win they need to tighten their grip on AFC East.

Cincinatti Bengals vs Cleveland Browns
As I mentioned in my opening few paragraphs, Chad Johnson and Carson Palmer are finally clicking as a pass-catch tandem, and not a moment too soon. The Bengals really need to start putting a string of wins together if they’re going to get to the playoffs… in the division they’re three games behind Baltimore, and if they aim for a Wild Card spot they’re level with the Jets, both teams are two games behind Denver. Cleveland for their part aren’t likely to get to the playoffs barring some kind of miracle, and they were close to getting a big home win over Steelers, but that inability on Sunday to hold out for the whole game could well cost them against a Bengals team who are doing things again. Chad Johnson won’t be as spectacular this week, but he’ll still get a touchdown or two as the Bengals get a win they badly need if they’re to make a run for the playoffs.

Houston Texans vs New York Jets
I could just toss a coin, but with home field advantage and the few tricky moments they gave the Bears, I’ll go with the Jets for this one.

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Bufallo Bills
Every time I change my mind about the Jags, they suddenly switch and perform well or badly (pretty much the opposite of whatever I’ve predicted).. This of course means that I should put the opposite of what I actually think and pick the Bills to win. But… would Jacksonville then still win because I actually think they will? Or… oh I don’t know. Jags to win with Maurice Jones-Drew taking a few into the end-zone.

New Orleans Saints vs Atlanta Falcons
With injuries and a poor pass-defence to begin with, Drew Brees and his receiving corps could have a field day here. It’s difficult to tell what Vick will do, and due to that I don’t feel I can pick the Falcons to win against a Saints team who are still looking fairly solid without wondering why I’ve made that decision. So I’m almost picking the Saints by default. But it’s not an easy call, you never know when the really, really good Falcons are going to turn up, and if they do then the Saints will have a hard task on their hands. Still, I can’t assume that the good Atlanta will turn up, so I’m going to chicken out with a prediction of a Saints win.

New York Giants vs Tennessee Titans
Eli Manning has been getting shaky, and Tiki Barber had his dreariest performance in a while, and I feel that’s a cue for a bounce-back from the Giants after losing two in a row. The Titans have been up and down since they ran Indianapolis close in week 5, and although they managed a handy win over Philly, that was a Philly minus McNabb for the most part. Still, credit where it’s due, they got the job done and done well. They won’t this week, as Manning puts in a solid performance and the Barber/ Jacobs tandem will do the Titans poor rush defence some serious damage.

Philadelphia Eagles vs Indinapolis Colts
The week after losing your star quarterback isn’t when you want to be visiting Indy… if Peyton Manning does his thing you’d like more guarantee your quarterback is capable of throwing the ball under pressure and getting points on the board to try and keep up, which I don’t see Jeff Garcia doing. The order of the day could be just using their pool of running backs and pounding the Colt’s poor rushing D and hoping to tire them out and make some big plays that way, coupled with a safe and steady passing game.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Baltimore Ravens
I’ve rightly picked the Steelers to win over the past two weeks, but something didn’t feel quite right as I almost picked them to win this. Baltimore have been showing they know what to do to get a win, they have a good defence, and they’re at home against a Steelers team that still isn’t firing as they want to, and with Big Ben still turning the ball over far more times than is safe. It’ll be close but no cigar for Pittsburgh.

San Francisco 49ers vs St. Louis Rams
Everything should make me pick San Francisco here, there’s not much to suggest I should be picking the Rams. But you know what? I’m going to anyway. St. Louis are a better team than their record suggests, and this is the week they finally hit back, and the 49ers are in the firing line.

Oakland Raiders vs San Diego Chargers
After the struggles of Kansas and Denver against Oakland, San Diego will make it look like child’s play. Expect big numbers.

Green Bay Packers vs Seattle Seahawks
Green Bay got pounded last week, and Seattle slumped to a defeat against San Francisco. I’ve got to go for Seattle. Home field advantage, some of their big names are making their way back in, their defence can cope with Green Bay. I think New England exposed too many flaws with their brutal performance on Sunday for the Packers to be coming into this game in the right frame of mind, and while they won’t suffer the same sort of defeat here, I still can’t see them notching one up in the “W” column.


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