Hello, Guest!

 

- NFL Week 1

Ian Hetherington September 6, 2007
Ian Hetherington
NFL Columnist

Tell Ian your opinion.

-
Don't forget to join PFCritics Pick'em Challenge, where you pick the NFL games every week. There is no entrance fee, and the person with the most wins at the end of the season wins $150, no strings attached :)

NFL Week 1


I’d be lying if I said it doesn’t feel good to be back in writing mode and to have the new season upon us. With the increasingly dull Mike Vick saga, ridiculous hold-outs, reading about multi-millionaire prima donnas getting their pants in a twist over what to them must be piddling sums of money, more arrests, more suspensions and the tedium of pre-season football I couldn’t be happier that at last we’re about to get back down to business. I’ll start off with a few general predictions once again, what better way to make myself look increasingly foolish as the season goes on?

Super Bowl champions: I’m going to go with the Colts as I did last year. I know, their defense has seemingly gotten weaker and it wasn’t amazing to start with. But like Quasimodo, I have a hunch. Do you think Peyton Manning isn’t more desperate than ever for a ring now he knows how it feels?

Most improved team: It seems foolish to say this of a team who were already AFC Championship contenders, but it’s a safe bet to say this could end up being the New England Patriots. An already good team on both sides of the ball has added big weapons for a quarterback who likes to spread the ball around with Welker, Stallworth and Randy Moss. On defense they’ve added one of the most impressive and versatile defensive players in the league, Adalius Thomas, who has the flexibility to add to a defense that wasn’t at all bad to begin with.

Team most likely to disappoint: Atlanta Falcons. Hopes aren’t high for them right now as it is as far as many people are concerned, but after watching Mike Vick with despair and excitement in equal measure over recent seasons, the Atlanta offense is going to look incredibly run of the mill.

Week 1 game predictions

New Orleans Saints vs. Indianapolis Colts
Were this in New Orleans I might be about to make a very different prediction. I think being at home will give the Colts the edge as it is, but the team will be buzzing as they realise this is the real beginning of their reign as champions, and I don’t think their defence will be as bad as some suspect. They’ve still got a real handful though as the Saints seem to have only improved since being unceremoniously dumped out of the playoffs by the Bears. This could end up being the best match of the season for pure entertainment value with a stack of exciting battles to watch. I think in the end though, Peyton Manning will be enough of a difference-maker to elevate his team by a score or two over the best efforts of Brees, Bush and company.

Atlanta Falcons vs. Minnesota Vikings
There’ll be two very different offensive stories in this game. Atlanta will be hoping a new-look, less explosive offense can do what Michael Vick couldn’t. The home team, Minnesota, will be aiming to use this home start as a launch pad for the likes of Tarvaris Jackson and Adrian Peterson. This is unlikely to be a thrilling offensive affair, so my call is that the Vikings defense will put the onus on Harrington to perform and he simply won’t do well enough to lead Atlanta to a victory. And that’s not a knock on him, I wouldn’t pick a lot of quarterbacks in a new team to start off with a win in Minnesota.

Carolina Panthers vs. St. Louis Rams
Carolina are a good team who still have the potential to do great things, the key word being potential. I don’t believe they have the balance to go out and beat good teams week in, week out and an over-reliance on Steve Smith could continue to cost them starting against the Rams. Steven Jackson is rightfully being tipped to have a great year and the Panthers’ focus will be on stopping him which could let Marc Bulger in the door to do some damage. Whether that’s the case or not is of course simple speculation, but I think the Rams are a more evenly-spread team and in a home game will get over the Panthers. Dwayne Jarrett will be hoping to use what time he gets on the field to prove he’s a threat and take the heat of Steve Smith a little bit. He or another receiver making an impact and giving Smith more freedom could be the key to a Carolina victory.

Denver Broncos vs. Buffalo Bills
Buffalo snagged one of the premier talents in the in the drafted when they got Marshawn Lynch. Stepping in alongside a maturing J.P. Losman and an offensive line that Buffalo coaching staff have worked had to improve over the summer the Bills have hopes to make an impact this year, but their defense could still hamper that. Sure, the Broncos might have an unknown potentially getting big carries as injuries could pass the buck to Selvin Young as running back. But then… did anybody know that much about Mike Bell last year? Along with their usual ability to get respectable rushing yards out of whoever they please Jay Cutler showed genuine promise last year so Mike Shanahan has signed Daniel Graham and Brandon Stokley for him to throw to giving the Broncos a much more potent look this term. All in all, I have an inkling Denver can take the win here but it won’t be a rout by any standards.

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Houston Texans
If Larry Johnson had been utilised through preseason then I’d have perhaps been leaning toward the Texans when calling this, but Johnson is fully fit. He’s not going to beat the Texans on his own, but he’s one of the few players in the league genuinely capable of raising the game of those around him which I think nudges the Chiefs ahead of Houston. It really could go either way however, as the Texans have strived to re-tool their offense for the better so they can compete more, and the likes of Andre Johnson, Ahman Green and Matt Schaub are a good core for a team. The overall standard of their depth chart isn’t what it should be at the end of the day and I think that’s where they’ll just lose out.

Miami Dolphins vs. Washington Redskins
After much deliberation I’ve decided that the Redskins just might take the in here. The Dolphins have a dominating defensive unit that’s been improved, but the look of the offense on paper can’t be very inspiring for fans. That’s not discounting Trent Green, but after last season there’s a prevailing thought that he might now be damaged goods and supposing he isn’t there still isn’t an awful lot to work with. The ‘Skins on the other hand have a good running back tandem to work out how to use, a young quarterback who appears to have what it takes once he gets a little more experience and a beefed-up defense. They’re at home and with their improvements they’re a much better all-round team than last year by the look of them and that could be enough if they can stop the Dolphins getting many points.

New England Patriots vs. New York Jets
This was a really tough decision for me to make. I liked the Jets last season and I think since then they’ve improved their personnel. I just think the Patriots are going to come into the season fired up and determined to live up the hype surrounding their off-season acquisitions. If they do and they’re at their best they’ll be too much for the Jets, who are likely to suffer as they try to stop Brady spreading the ball around to the almost embarrassing number of good receivers as well as keep an eye on the running back. The Jets caused an upset against the Pats last year but this one may prove too much for them.

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Green bay Packers
Beware, NFL. Donovan McNabb’s knee is apparently just fine so defensive co-ordinators around the league had better put their thinking caps firmly on and get going on plans to stop the Eagles this year. The Packers have a youthful defense who have talent and some guys who could turn out to be real impact players, but if McNabb is as fit as they say he and Westbrook should form a fearsome duo. With a running game that could go either way, it might well fall to Brett Favre to simply try and keep up with the Eagles on his own which is a big ask for any quarterback.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cleveland Browns
In an AFC with obvious Super Bowl candidates like New England, Indianapolis and San Diego, Pittsburgh enter this season as a potential dark horse for the championship which will suit Mike Tomlin just fine. The Browns do seem to have improved, and Brady Quinn looks like a player who could come in and do great things. This is the first of a run of hard games so Cleveland will want to get off on the right foot. Whether they can is a different matter, the Steelers are beatable but they’ve got the feel of a team who are ready to make a strong run at the playoffs and I don’t know if Cleveland have the tools on either side of the ball to cause them enough problems right now.

Tennessee Titans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Whether you want to put it down to the Madden Curse or be more rational and just say that’s the way things have gone, it could be a much trickier season for Vince Young this time around. He’s lost players around him on offense, the defense wasn’t great shakes to begin with and coordinators will be planning for his skill set in advance. The solid Jacksonville defense won’t be any difference and together with home field they have an offense likely to ask questions the Titans just can’t answer.

Chicago Bears vs. San Diego Chargers
As much as this looks like a classic awesome offense vs. unbreakable defense affair, it’s actually much simpler than that. We’ve the home team who’re very, very good on both sides of the ball, including the best running back in the league. The visitors have one of the top defenses in the league, but a poor offense that has taken more knocks since an appearance in the Super Bowl in February. The Chargers won’t tear them apart, but a win is on the cards for the Super Bowl hopefuls.

Detroit Lions vs. Oakland Raiders
I think the only proven thing about either of these teams is the Raiders defense, which probably stands the best chance of being the game’s defining factor unless the Lions passing game bursts out of the blocks. They’ll have a tough time on their hands break down Oakland who in turn desperately need Daunte Culpepper to boost what was a dire offense in 2006. With that D and at least an improved offensive unit the Raiders should edge this one.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Seattle Seahawks
Jeff Garcia has been unsurprisingly installed as the starting quarterback but there are still problems with the team in Tampa that need rectifying before the Bucs can hope to make an impression on this division. Meanwhile, the Seahawks haven’t noticeably improved their personnel but they’ll still be an improved team because Hasselbeck and Shaun Alexander should be recovered after an injury-strewn 2006. The ‘Hawks defense will be stingy again and having their quarterback and running back fit might be like having two top-notch signings. The Garcia-led Buccaneers will fight but they’ll fall short of grinding out a win here.

New York Giants vs. Dallas Cowboys
The NFC East was one of the most competitive divisions in the NFL last year, and it’s likely to continue on the opening weekend of the season as the Giants travel to Dallas to begin life without Tiki Barber. Dallas will be a tough place to visit anyway, so an opening game there won’t be ideal for the Giants but it’s in games like this where Eli Manning is going to have to start proving he can be a difference maker. I’m picking the Cowboys for now, though I think the Giants certainly have the potential to steal this. I expect the ‘Boys to make the most of their array of attacking talent to force a result in their favour.

Baltimore Ravens vs. Cincinnati Bengals
The Cincinnati Bengals didn’t exactly turn the Paul Brown Stadium into a fortress last season and they’ll start out against a championship-quality defense missing a huge deep threat in the suspended Chris Henry. The Ravens have lost Adalius Thomas but coordinator Rex Ryan isn’t going to let that harm their chances and the Bengals have a very difficult start to the season with this game. Without Henry, they’ve got Chad Johnson, T.J. Houshmanzadeh, Rudi Johnson and Carson Palmer to man the fort which isn’t to be sniffed at. Their defense is leaky though, so the Ravens have the ability to smother the Bengals attack while being quietly functional on offense to get the points they need for this one.

Arizona Cardinals vs. San Francisco 49ers
After proving to be made of surprisingly stern stuff last year, much due to the efforts of Frank Gore, the 49ers enter the 2007 season full of hope after a summer of hard work and addressing areas that needed strengthening with the likes of Nate Clements and Darrell Jackson. The Cardinals main asset going into the year will be Matt Leinart who looked more and more assured as he went along once he got in the team and he’s had a summer to further gel with his team-mates. If Edgerrin James can get back to his best the annual “This is the Cardinals year!” brigade would have more to work with. I reckon Arizona will start out 0-1 though because Alex Smith seems to be growing as the man behind center too and Gore should take the heat off him a little.

PFC Staff Fantasy Picks


For a bit of fun we’re introducing a new feature to this column which will hopefully be of interest to people who like to see every opinion they can on fantasy football, and a bit of harmless fun for everyone else. The regular staff members here at PFC are going to indulge in a limited fantasy football game of our own where we each pick a quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end and then using a scoring system (explained at the bottom) we’ll compete against each other each week and basically see who ends up on top at the end of the season. So here are the picks for Week 1:

Kevin Figg:
QB: Matt Leinart (ARI) vs. 49ers - With Clements or without, that San Francisco secondary is no match for Boldin, Fitzgerald and Johnson.

RB: Willie Parker (PIT) vs. Browns - Parker ran for 1500 yards last season, Cleveland was 29th against the run, enough said.

WR: Javon Walker (DEN) vs. Bills - With so much inexperience in the Bills secondary, Walker should have his way.

TE: Chris Cooley (WAS) vs. Dolphins - Young QB Jason Campbell will look to his big, sure-handed tight end early and often against a stingy Miami defense.

Chris Pokorny
QB: Drew Brees (NO) vs. Colts - Going up against a porous Colts defense, the Saints know that it's almost impossible to defeat Indianapolis on the road with the mentality of running the clock down. Brees will have to match the same amount of scores that Joseph Addai and Peyton Manning put on the board, rather than having the luxury of counting on the running game at crunch time.

RB: Larry Johnson (KC) vs. Texans - Fresh off of not having to work through the preseason games, Johnson will be just about the only offensive weapon the Chiefs have this year. Against a Texans' mediocre defense on the road in Week 1, Johnson is the only running back who will get carries for the Chiefs, especially down near the goal line.

WR: Santana Moss (WAS) vs. Dolphins - With the center of attention on the Redskins' running game, Moss will be off to a great start to make up for his lack of production last season. The Dolphins have a good defense all around, but Washington's passing game will be based off of hitting the big play once or twice per game. Moss remains the Redskins' only threat down the field, providing for a big day in Week 1.

TE: Antonio Gates (SD) vs. Bears - He's the best tight end in the NFL, and will be Philip Rivers' security blanket against a dangerous Bears defense.

Ian Hetherington
QB: Donovan McNabb (PHI) vs. Packers – The Packers defensive unit isn’t weak, it’s young and energetic and increasingly well organized. A fully-fit McNabb is a handful for anybody though, and I think this time he might be injury free and ready to do some damage.

RB: Frank Gore (SF) vs. Cardinals – Leinart will likely be playing well for the Cards, and backed up by an improving passing game Frank Gore will be the 49ers answer.

WR: Terrell Owens (DAL) vs. Giants – The Giants pass defense was a long way from great last season, and after his gaffe in the playoffs Romo will be looking for a safe pair of hands to get this season under way.

TE: Daniel Graham (DEN) vs. Bills – Daniel Graham looks set to be the first choice tight end in Denver, and with injuries to the running game Jay Cutler will need to pass well. Graham could be the reliable pair of hands he needs to keep the chains moving.

SCORING SYSTEM:
Quarterbacks: Touchdown = 6 points; 50 yards passing = 1 point; sack, interception or fumble (recovered by defense) = -½ point

Running back: Touchdown = 6 points; 50 rushing/receiving yards = 2 points; fumble (recovered by defense) = -1 point; fumble recovered by team mate = -½ point

Wide receiver: Touchdown = 6 points; 50 receiving yards = 2 points; fumble (recovered by defense) = -1 point; fumble recovered by team mate = -½ point

Tight end: Touchdown = 6 points; 50 receiving yards = 2 points; fumble (recovered by defense) = -1 point; fumble recovered by team mate = -½ point



Don't forget to join PFCritics Pick'em Challenge, where you pick the NFL games every week. There is no entrance fee, and the person with the most wins at the end of the season wins $150, no strings attached :)


Do you have an opinion on this article? Do you want direct fantasy football advice from one of our writers? You can e-mail us at ianwelby@hotmail.com. Be sure to label your subject line appropriately so we don't think it is spam. Please include your name (can be a screename), city and state. We guarantee a response to any questions or comments you have, and will publish them in our next mailbag session if appropriate.
Sponsors
NFL tickets and Super Bowl tickets

Meet Doc's Advisory Board for:


PFC Pick'em
- The 2008 PFCritics Pick'em Challenge is now open for registration. Join Now and win big! Sponsored by sportsbettingstats.com
Add to My Yahoo!
Topsites
PFCritics.com

© 2004-2024 PFCritics.com. All Rights Reserved.