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- NFL Week 4 thoughts and picks

Ian Hetherington September 30, 2007
Ian Hetherington
NFL Columnist

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Week 3


Offensive Star of Week 3
Donovan McNabb, without a doubt. After all the pressure heaped on him after a poor opening to the season, all the criticism of his comments in mid-week and questions of whether he could ever be the same after his latest injury he hardly made a mistake in an imperious performance against Detroit.

Defensive Star of Week 3
For me it was Keith Bulluck’s all-action MNF performance against the Saints. Three interceptions, tipped passes and a bunch of tackles generally helped make it another nightmare game for the still-winless Saints.

Risers and Fallers
Risers
Donovan McNabb – Tossed aside mid-week controversy and struggles so far this year to show us all that Donovan McNabb is by no means done.

Brandon Marshall – After one of Denver’s best performances last week, might have made Jay Cutler realise that Javon Walker isn’t his only deep threat and may start to live up to his pre-season billing as one to watch for this year.

Wade Phillips – After it was suggested by some that he wasn’t the man for the job in Dallas, his stock has certainly risen with an undefeated start for the ‘Boys, including that win over NFC champions the Bears in Chicago by 24 points.

Fallers
New Orleans Saints – As if things weren’t bad enough having gone 0-3, they’ve now lost Deuce McAllister for the season. This is a team desperate for a win.

The St. Louis offense – Just a field goal against the Bucs? I know they’ve had injuries but they simply seem unabe to get the points to go with their yardage.

NFL Week 4


Game predictions
Baltimore Ravens vs. Cleveland Browns
Injuries haven’t helped as the Ravens have failed to be as ruthless as they normally would be, and the offense has been damper than usual in part due to the poor form of Steve McNair. They face a Browns team who have shown ability to put points up but have consistently struggled to stop the opposition doing so. This one could be close, and even should McNair’s fitness prove a stumbling block, Boller will help the Ravens see out the win.

Chicago Bears vs. Detroit Lions


Green Bay Packers vs. Minnesota Vikings
This Favre-led Packers team is on a roll right now and the Vikings don’t currently look like the team to put a stop to that. The defense is better than suspected and they’re making the most of not having a feature back by making things simpler for the guys in the passing game and Favre is thriving as he moves inevitably toward the extra scoring pass he needs to break Marino’s record. The win is all-important, but he’ll want that record, it could even prove the fuel that powers the Packers to a tough road win here.


Houston Texans vs. Atlanta Falcons
It’s getting increasingly difficult to pick the Falcons. On the one hand, Joey Harrington had a solid performance last week and he was the catalyst as the Falcons ran the Panthers close. Is it a coincidence he finally had a good game the week where the O-line actually gave him some protection? Of course not, but they have to focus now on facing a Texans team whose only loss was a tooth-and-claw battle against the Colts last week. Until the Falcons prove they can stop teams scoring against them, I can’t justify picking them against good teams.

New York Jets vs. Buffalo Bills
Even though Trent Edwards is in at QB with J.P. Losman joining the growing injury list, the Bills can have their best offensive performance of the season against the Bills. The defense is battered and bruised though, so in a match that has the potential to end up as a surprisingly high-scoring affair I see Chad Pennington and Thomas Jones overwhelming the Bills.

Oakland Raiders vs. Miami Dolphins
Here’s my first home team pick of the week. With the defense not up to snuff, the Dolphins offense has been warming up, albeit slowly. Oakland are almost exactly the same as the Dolphins in that they’ve failed to keep teams out like they were in 2006, but the offense has done better work too. I could just as easily toss a coin and I wouldn’t be any less happy with the call, so I’ll edge the Dolphins who need to focus to prevent Oakland’s starter Daunte Culpepper coming back to haunt them.

St. Louis Rams vs. Dallas Cowboys
The Rams couldn’t really have a tougher game at the moment. Their offensive line is hurt so the energetic Dallas defense isn’t their ideal match-up. Steven Jackson didn’t score in week 3 but did put up the big yardage we’ve been waiting for. Pity he’s injured then, isn’t it? The onus is on Bulger to lead this team to some points but even if he does, the Cowboys have the most prolific offense right now and the Rams D doesn’t look capable of stopping them. I can see Romo, Owens and Marion Barber running riot to send the team on their way to 4-0.

Seattle Seahawks vs. San Francisco 49ers
A dour game controlled by the ‘Hawks is going to mean another frustrating week for Frank Gore. He bemoaned the lack of success on offense already in the build-up to this one, and it’s going to be hard again when the Seahawks stuff the line and force Alex Smith to win it for the 49ers. While this is going on, Shaun Alexander is going to quietly go about his business, ignoring his hurt wrist with a touchdown or two.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Carolina Panthers
In the likely event that back-up David Carr starts behind center, he couldn’t have a better safety blanket than Steve Smith could he? Call me harsh, but I think Tampa’s 2-1 record is due to facing serious underachievers rather than being particularly good. Don’t get me wrong, they’ve shown they can be better than most would have expected but the game they’ve had against a functional team they lost. For me, this one’s going to Carolina all the way.

***Game of the Week***
Denver Broncos vs. Indianapolis Colts
The last four times Denver have played a defending Super Bowl champion, they’ve won. An interesting fact, but ultimately irrelevant because I see that streak coming to an end in Indianapolis. The Colts face a Broncos D that’s strong against the pass, weak against the run. Both teams should do well on the run though, it’s in the passing games the real interest should lie. Jay Cutler is showing promise and he’s got the tools to play well against Indy, so what do we make of Peyton Manning doing battle with the Broncos secondary? Manning, Wayne and Harrison duking it out with Champ Bailey and Dre Bly promises to be fascinating. Peyton will do okay though, he always does, and his experience is what’ll help Indy get the win as their dominance increases as the game goes on. They could be forced to rely on big plays though, as the Broncos have been excellent stopping opposition in the red zone while the Colts haven’t been as ruthless as they’d like.

Kansas City Chiefs vs. San Diego Chargers
The Chargers are going to win this game one way or another, and it’ll probably come on the back of a long-awaited performance from LaDainian Tomlinson. The Chiefs’ ability to stop big yardage isn’t bad, but teams are still doing what they need to get on the board which is a problem. With Larry Johnson nursing a sore hamstring Kansas’ main weapon is less effective so they’ll need Damon Huard to establish something on the pass to take the strain off LJ. Easier said than done though, especially as the Chargers are clearly irate at themselves for playing as poorly as they have. They want a win bad, and I don’t think the Chiefs will stop them.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Arizona Cardinals
With Anquan Boldin doubtful the Cards lose a major target in the passing game so Edgerrin James will be an important part of their game plan. He might struggle for room with the number of guys Pittsburgh are happy to throw forward, but he needs to get his legs moving with the ball under his arm. It could be the running game where the Cardinals fall down on both sides of the ball as Mike Tomlin will happily wind up Willie Parker, let him go and see how the defense deals with it. When an underdog is at home they’ve always got a chance of an upset, but if they’re going to upset Pittsburgh then unsettling Big Ben Roethlisberger will be the key. You’re unlikely to shut down Willie Parker for four quarters, so they need to try and knock Roesthlisberger out of rhythm. However, he’s looked solid so far. I can see the Cardinals losing out to a few big plays on the ground and through the air.

Philadelphia Eagles vs. New York Giants
I really, really hate calling NFC East games. They’re great to watch, terrible to call. Still, has to be done so I think my gut feeling is telling me an Eagles win. If McNabb is as good as he was last week or anything like it he’ll be leading the Eagles to victory at Giants stadium. Eli Manning has been doing okay this year and not got credit for improvement but a passing competition with McNabb is a bit of a stretch.

New England Patriots vs. Cincinnati Bengals
You can’t work on Ifs, Buts or Maybes so there’s little reason to pick the Bengals. Sure, they have the players in both the running and passing games to cause anyone problems and it’s not at all beyond them to put a few touchdowns past the Patriots, but their defense will, as ever, likely prove their downfall against the machine-like efficiency of New England’s offensive unit.

PFC Staff Fantasy Picks


If you don’t know by now, this following bit is a mini fantasy football game we’re running amongst a few of the PFC staff. Basic scoring, a bit of fun for us and hey, we might even pass on a fantasy tip or two to you guys. So, without further a do, here’s what happened last week.

Kevin Figg selected another starring quarterback in McNabb, Adrian Peterson, Santana Moss and Heath Miller. These guys combined to get Kevin 30 ½, 11 ½, 2 and 2 points for a total this week of 46.

Chris Pokorny went for Matt Hasselbeck, Jamal Lewis, Chad Johnson and Todd Heap. Hasselbeck’s up-and-down performance earned Chris 21 points, along with 2, 4 and 2 from his other three players respectively for a week 3 score of 29.

I picked Ben Roethlisberger, Travis Henry, Joey Galloway and Dallas Clark who got 8 ½, 6, 0 and 8 for a low total of 22 ½.

After another big week for a quarterback, Kevin has extended his lead at the top of our table after he made another excellent quarterback selection, while Chris drew himself a little closer to me.

Kevin - 136
Ian - 99
Chris – 81 ½

With Kevin now nearly forty points in the lead, it’s about time me and Chris made some big picks to try and catch him, here’s what we’ve all gone for.

Kevin Figg:
QB: Philip Rivers (Chargers) vs. Chiefs - Rivers played very well against an underrated Packers defense. He will eat the Cheifs secondary for lunch.

HB: Joseph Addai (Colts) vs. Broncos - The Broncos run defense has been atrocious so far this season. Don't be surprised if Addai has near 200 yards rushing.

WR: Torry Holt (Rams) vs. Cowboys - Don't let the hot start fool you. That Cowboys secondary is average at best. About 110 receiving yards and a TD for Holt this weekend.

TE: Heath Miller (Steelers) vs. Cardinals - The Cardinals play an aggressive style of defense, blitzing linebackers and safeties (mostly Adrian Wilson). The middle will be wide open for Miller all day long.

Chris Pokorny
QB: Tom Brady (Patriots) vs. Bengals - You can't go wrong with a QB completing 80% of his passes against the worst defense in football.

RB: LaDainian Tomlinson (Chargers) vs. Chiefs - Something is telling me that the Chargers will finally click, and that includes a jump-start from Tomlinson.

WR: Torry Holt (Rams) vs. Cowboys - With Steven Jackson out and the Rams struggling, it's time to go to the only weapon left.

TE: Jeremy Shockey (Giants) vs. Eagles - Burress may or may not play, but it's Shockey's turn to get the attention.

Ian Hetherington
QB: Brett Favre (Packers) vs. Vikings – He’s a man on a mission, and he’s in great form.

HB: Marion Barber (Cowboys) vs. Rams - The Rams D is pretty porous right now and the Cowboys have too many threats for the Rams to concentrate on stopping just one attack. Barber will thrive with several big gains and a couple of scores.

WR: Donald Driver (Packers) vs. Vikings - Favre will give the ball to Driver to break that TD record.

TE: Daniel Graham (Broncos) vs. Colts – Graham has disappointed so far, but he’s got to start being more reliable and Jay Cutler could need him under pressure.

SCORING SYSTEM:
Quarterbacks: Touchdown = 6 points; 50 yards passing = 1 point; interception or fumble (recovered by defense) = -½ point

Running back: Touchdown = 6 points; 50 rushing/receiving yards = 2 points; fumble (lost) = -½ point

Wide receiver: Touchdown = 6 points; 50 receiving yards = 2 points; fumble (recovered by defense) = -½ point

Tight end: Touchdown = 6 points; 50 receiving yards = 2 points; fumble (recovered by defense) = -½ point


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