Week 8 picks

This week’s competition: If anybody can tell me just what happened with the NFL results in week 7, answers on the back of a postcard please, then I’d be a very happy man.

Just what went wrong with my previously decent pick choices is anybody’s guess, but even in a week with more than it’s fair share of shock results and games which might as well have come down to a coin-toss, 5 correct predictions or less is pretty damn poor. To the kind person who actually reads my articles and sent me an e-mail prior to my week 7 picks asking whether in future I’d be able to post my picks earlier in the week, well… I bet you’re glad you made your picks without getting to consult mine this time, eh?

Still, it was nice to get feedback, and now onwards into week 8… I can’t get any worse, right?

Arizona Cardinals vs Green Bay

My faith in the world of Meant To Be was shaken by the Raiders spoiling what I felt was an inevitable Matt-Leinart’s-first-win party. I also picked Miami to get the win over Green Bay at home. Woe is me. Brett Favre will be the first quarter-back this year that Leinart will really look at after the game and says, “Wow… so that’s how I have to do it.” Did that cruel defeat against the Bears knock the wind out of Leinart? Who knows, but Favre, Driver and Green will have good enough days again as the Cards slump to a 4th defeat since their “renaissance”.

Atlanta Falcons vs Cincinnati

Again, we have two teams with one common trait. Nope, they’re not both coming off bye weeks, they’re both teams that I underestimated for week 7 to a shameful degree. For Atlanta I misjudged Vick’s ability to throw that well (I can be forgiven that one, right?) For Cincinnati, I misjudged their ability to frustrate an offensively good team like Carolina. Ok, that’s enough of confession time for this pick. Cincinnati win even though Chad Johnson is sulking because he’s not allowed to celebrate flamboyantly.

Baltimore Ravens vs New Orleans Saints

After two consecutive losses, would you want to travel to New Orleans this week?

“They’re playing above their status.” That’s probably what Philadelphia said.
“But they were terrible last year!” No doubt, but they’re home now and they mean business.
“Once the hype and interest dies down they’ll lose momentum.” Maybe, maybe not, but it hasn’t died down just yet, so you need to go out there Baltimore, try to smother their offence and then put on a brave face when they add your name to their list of Superdome Victims 2006.

Houston Texans vs Tennessee Titans

Houston’s great win over Jacksonville owed an awful lot to rookie players in the team. RB Lundy finished just shy of a 100 rushing yards with a touchdown to go with it, while on the defensive side, #1 draft pick Mario Williams, and linebacker DeMeco Ryans were part of a strong defensive performance (helped more than a little by Jackonsille’s Leftwich being sore coming into the game) to make things easier for QB David Carr to pull the strings for a Texans win. Tennessee were on a bye in week 7, but previously they had just got their first win of the season on the road in Washington. Jubilant over that result, and refreshed from their week off, they’ll prove stiff opposition for Houston, but Vince Young won’t put up big enough numbers through the air to nullify the threat of David Carr.

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Philadelphia Eagles

“Pick yourselves up, dust yourself off and look ahead,” is the message Jacksonville’s coaching staff should be sending to the players. They’re a good team, with some very talented players, and shouldn’t let their string of defeats get them down, otherwise the Eagles will punish them for it. Speaking of the Eagles, they’re not having the best time themselves right now. After defeats to New Orleans and Tampa Bay, they desperately need this win over Jacksonville before their bye in week 9 so they’re mentally ready for a crucial divisional tie against the Redskins. The Eagles this week, after two weeks of losing to last-minute field goals will need to stand firm throughout the entire game, and at home they should do that. The Jags will put up a respectable score as Philadelphia’s defence isn’t going to become impregnable in a week, but it’ll be the Eagles’ day as Jacksonville slip into a losing record.

Seattle Seahawks at Kansas City

After Seattle got a drubbing off Chicago in week 4, I predicted they’d come back in their next game and get a win as a backlash from that defeat, and I would have anticipated a similar situation here were it not for Hasselbeck being knocked out of the game. His back-up, Seneca Wallace, is a decent player, but missing Hasselbeck, possibly Alexander still and definitely Engram will hurt the Seahawks badly. The Chiefs, meanwhile, got an important win over San Diego. After running into a big lead early, Kansas had to fight for the game as San Diego came back into it strongly in the second half, LaDainian Tomlinson running the show getting a receiving and a passing touchdown (no running TD, ironically) and tying the game until Kansas got a field goal with 6 seconds to go. This is the kind of mental and physical toughness many thought the Chiefs might be lacking after being pulled to pieces by the Steelers in week 6, and they’ll provide a similar performance to get a win over the Seattle Sicknotes.

San Francisco 49ers vs Chicago Bears

So we’ve got two teams fully rested after a bye week in this one. The visitors got a caning off San Diego last time out as LaDainian ran riot in San Francisco, scoring touchdowns for fun. The hosts, Chicago, somehow managed to get out of Arizona with their unbeaten record in tact. So what to make of this game? Not much. Chicago will do much better at home against the 49ers, having had 13 days to work out just how the Cardinals had them so thoroughly under control for so long in the game, and Rex Grossman will throw much better to help his team to the win.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs New York Giants

Tampa Bay may be on the road to recovery after early-season crisis, but I really wouldn’t forecast them to beat the Giants in New York this week. Tampa have a surprisingly adept quarterback in Bruce Gradkowski, and solid players on offence and defence otherwise, but even if they can put up points in this game, the Giants simply have far too much firepower for the Bucs to get the win from this one. Tiki Barber will get another 100+ running yards to set up the win for this one.

St. Louis Rams vs San Diego Chargers

In their last games in weeks 6 and 7 respectively, the Rams and the Chargers lost by a total of 5 points between them, but they lost in very different circumstances. St. Louis lost by two at home, but they enjoyed a 21-7 lead at the half and allowed Seattle to steamroller them in the second, with a 67-yard touchdown reception from Torry Holt being too little too late to slow down the ‘Hawks momentum, giving them the belief to keep driving for a last-second field goal. The Chargers meanwhile, were 21-6 down to the Chiefs in Kansas but out-scored their opponents by 21-7 in the second half, forcing the Chiefs to win through a last-minute field goal of their own. I think this says a lot about these two teams right now… and in what could be a high-scoring affair, I pick the Chargers to have the cutting edge and get the win.

***Game of the Week***
Indianapolis Colts vs Denver Broncos

I guess this could be classed as “The Unstoppable Force vs The Immovable Object” kinda thing, unbeaten Indy against the barely-beaten Broncos defence. It’s not quite that epic but, andI apologise, fellow Broncos fans, for tempting fate… I have a really good feeling about this game. Yeah, so Jake Plummer is hardly setting the NFL alight, and the Colts have a fine pass-defence at the moment, but Tatum Bell is putting up big yardage in many games and the Colts rushing D is as bad as the passing D is good, with an average 150 run yards allowed per game. Don’t get me wrong, I’m by no means saying I’m certain about this one… anybody who brushed off a Peyton Manning team as a guaranteed victory is a fool, but the Colts haven’t been nearly as spectacular this year despite their unbeaten record, and I think that the Broncos will do just enough to get the win, with Tatum Bell starring.

New York Jets vs Cleveland Browns

This is actually one of the tougher decisions I’ve had to make this week. Yes, so Cleveland have been very poor at times this season, but they’ve threatened a few big teams and gave the Broncos a few problems last week. And they’re playing the Jets, who have a thriving quarterback and are 4-3 (two of those losses coming to Indianapolis and New England, both of whom they gave a scare)… still, they’ve looked less than invincible, and I fancy Charlie Frye to have a good week as the Browns try to build on potential shown against Denver and, despite another big day for Chad Pennington, get the win by a field goal.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Oakland Raiders

Ok, so I was a little harsh about the Raiders last week and they went on to beat Arizona by a decent margin, with some of their players actually living up to their reputations for possibly the first time this season (not least Randy Moss), but I still really, really can’t imagine them beating the Steelers. Whether it’s Batch or Roethlisberger behind center, the Steelers will get a strong result from this one. I think the Steelers secondary could have a great day against whichever quarterback the Raiders play.

Dallas Cowboys vs Carolina Panthers

Dallas got bullied around the field by the Giants on Monday (not least Drew Bledsoe, who was forced out of the game) despite my claims that their league-best rushing defence would give Tiki Barber one of his hardest games this year. They did nothing of the sort, and even though Eli Manning only managed to complete 12 of his 26 passes, he still did enough damage from that. The team they visit this week, the Carolina Panthers, were also looking a bit tame as they succumbed to a defeat by 3 against the Bengals. Sure, Steve Smith put up big numbers, but they achieved nothing whatsoever on the ground which has to be a worry, especially seeing as on the other side of the ball they allowed Rudi Johnson to run freely for 101 yards. So what to make of all this for this week? Well, the Panthers may have lost but they put up a heck of a lot more resistance than the ‘Boys did in their game, they have Steve Smith and Keyshawn Johnson who are a better pair of receivers that the Giants can boast, and the Cowboys will be starting with Tony Romo as their quarterback, a talented but ultimately inexperienced quarterback, and if last Monday Night was anything to go by when Romo completed just over half of his passes for two touchdowns and three interceptions, then he’s going to provide a scoring threat for the Cowboys but perhaps –in pressurised situations- run the risk of costly turnovers. That won’t be helped at all by facing a Carolina defence that has proven itself reasonably adept at getting to the quarterback (and playing behind a Dallas line that has proved itself adept at letting opposition to get to the quarterback… 18 times so far this year). All of these factors combined means I feel I can only pick Carolina for the win.

New England Patriots vs Minnesota Vikings

Yes, the Vikings have been pretty good so far, yes, they’re at home, but I can sum up in a sentence why I don’t think they will beat the Patriots.

They don’t score enough touchdowns.

From 6 games they have twelve on offense and 4 defensive touchdowns, and I just don’t see that being enough. It could be argued that the Minnesota D hasn’t had to put big scores up very often as they’ve yet to let a team hit 20 points against them, but aside from Chicago they’ve yet to play a big name team who had been doing well at the time of their respective Minnesota games. Carolina were badly missing Steve Smith, Seattle were scuppered by the loss of their quarterback, running back and a talented receiver either before or during the game, and Washington just haven’t done much all year. All in all, I’d put good money on the Pats in this one.

Here’s hoping I don’t make an idiot of myself like I did last week.