Weeks 1 & 2

Two weeks into the NFL season and we’ve had our fair share of surprises. Carolina being 0-2 after games they probably would have expected to win, New Orleans have the opposite record after their two games and the free-scoring of Chicago’s offense being just three of those surprises. Of course for every failure there is an excuse at hand, and for every unexpected success there are plenty of people ready to say why it won’t last. For the Panthers a ready-made excuse is the absence of Steve Smith, for New Orleans the nay-sayers are simply stating that once they face a bigger team it’ll all come undone (Atlanta next week should be a perfect chance for them to prove otherwise if they’re going to), and there will be similar calls to not get excited about the Bears offensively until they face on-form Minnesota and then Seattle in the coming weeks.

Overall I think the main story of these first two weeks is that if, before the season had started, you’d seen what some of the win-loss records would be by this stage (most notably New Orleans, Washington, Tampa Bay, Carolina and Miami) you’d have been very surprised and wondered what the heck had gone wrong to cause some of them, such as Carolina’s losing record. It’s going to mean a lot of teams are going to go into week 3 with a chip on their shoulder after people commenting on their perceived over or under-performances thus far, and teams with a lot more to prove than they anticipated they would at this early in the proceedings.

Of course as a Broncos fan, the biggest surprise thus far has to be the performance of Jake (“The Mistake”?) Plummer. After a solid season last time around fans were probably split on whether he’d pick up where he’d left off or fall back to his old ways. Sadly, against the Rams and for the best part of the Chiefs game it was the latter, taking the Broncos close to the goal-line twice but still walking away empty handed. However, I think there were signs on several occasions, not least the drive in overtime that led to the game-winning field goal, that there’s more to come once again, though their fixture against New England before heading into their bye week isn’t exactly the best opportunity for him to ease back into form.

Draft stars

In my pre-season article I commented on draft picks, saying that worst teams of the season before might get the better deal in terms of having their pick of the finest young players coming into the league but this is partially balanced out by then having to pay them a stack of cash for the privilege. With this vein of thought in mind, it’s worth having a look at the top draft picks to see how they’ve fared thus far.

Number one pick, Mario Williams was never going to have an easy time coming into the defensive line of the Houston Texans, and knowing he’s been starting in the defence that’s conceded 67 points in two weeks doesn’t sound good, but the two teams in question were Philadelphia lead by a resurgent Donovan McNabb, who put 24 points past them, and then a Colts team featuring Peyton Manning who –coming off the back of a victorious “Manning Bowl” game in New York, tore them to shreds with 400 yards of passing and three touchdowns. And anyway, nobody expected Williams to suddenly turn them into a defensive colossus, he was clearly more of a building-for-the-future decision.

Second pick, Reggie Bush has come into a Saints team where Deuce McAllister has had the most chances to run with the ball, and ran 61 yards from 14 attempts against the Browns, and then a more than disappointing 5 yards from six attempts against the Packers. It’s worth noting however that over those same two games he’s achieved 126 receiving yards from 16 receptions, which isn’t bad going at all.

Third pick, Vince Young has been behind Kerry Collins in the pecking order thus far, though he’s got on the field, to make 3/4 passes against the Jets, with one interception and no touchdowns, but got more of an opportunity as the Titans got a 34-point trampling from the San Diego Chargers, where he completed 7/19 passes for 106 yards and a touchdown, which all things considered he’s probably not too disappointed with… especially as there are plenty of “experts” who are still predicting him to be starting before the end of the season anyway.

Number four pick, D’Brickashaw Ferguson went to the Jets and is in a similar position to that of Mario Williams in as much as he’s a young lineman in a struggling team. The difference is, Ferguson has a bit more of a cushion as he has the support of an experienced quarterback in Chad Pennington, who seems to have made a perfect recovery from his injury with 600 passing yards, four touchdowns, and a 1-1 record (the loss coming to the Patriots) and a single interception. This should reduce a lot of the pressure and allow him to bed in easier.

Fifth pick, A.J. Hawk went to Green Bay to be part of a team that’s hoping to do big things as a final fling for QB Brett Favre, but based on what we’ve seen so far, both from the offence and a defence featuring Hawk, it doesn’t look likely. In games against Chicago and New Orleans, the Packers have shipped 26 and 34 points respectively. For Hawk’s part, he’s made 10 tackles in those games with two assists, but coming into the Packers’ D was hardly going to be a cake-walk.

Now obviously you can’t base how you think the rest of the season and beyond will go based on two games, but of course the scrutiny of the big-name youngsters will always be intense, so I thought I might aswell throw in my two pennyworth.

Bold predictions

Now I made the mistake of making several predictions in my pre-season article, so in each article this season I’m going to check back with them and see how those predictions are standing up as the season goes on.

First up, the big one, my prediction for Superbowl champions 2007. I picked the Indianapolis Colts, and they’ve done all I could have hoped for on that front. Two games, two wins, 69 points, 8 touchdowns. Not bad, though they’ve conceded 21 and 24 points in those two games, with the 24 points being put past them by the Texans. Still, can’t complain about the offence and two wins, so that prediction is looking reasonable at this point.

My pick for most improved team was the Cardinals who are 1-1 after a win by a touchdown over the 49ers and then a loss to the Seahawks that doesn’t much surprise me, so I’m neither any more or less confident about that prediction right now, though I think they’ve not shown much depth in the running game so far, which could be a problem as the season goes on.

My Bronco’s pre-season pick was an AFC Championship game and potential for winning the Superbowl. Well… after a less-than-great performance against the Rams and a pretty dire game against the Chiefs (until overtime, at least) things aren’t looking particularly good, and I don’t see things getting much easier against the Patriots next week, but I can just hope that they’ll rise to the occasion and get into a rhythm in Foxboro.

My final season prediction was that the Redskins would be the most disappointing team this season, as I felt they have the capability to do well but ultimately won’t due to a combination of factors, not least among those being that Mark Brunell is still behind centre. But I didn’t expect the defeat against Minnesota in week 1, and thought they’d run the Dallas Cowboys closer than their eventual 17-point loss, so I could be looking at a spot-on predication as far as that one goes.

And for my bold prediction that I’d last until Week 6 of PFC’s Survivor competition? Well… All good so far, and so long as Detroit beat Green Bay it’ll all be just fine. My fantasy team has done a fairly atrocious job in these early stages, so I’ll not go into too much detail on that… needless to say I put too much faith in Jake Plummer being a big part of a high-scoring Chiefs vs Broncos game, and struggled to get touchdowns again after not getting any through my entire team in week 1.

The less said about my last small prediction that there would be no major surprises in week 1 the better.

Random thoughts and predictions

-Even if Jake Plummer has an absolute stinker against New England, Mike Shanahan won’t drop him.

-Washington at Houston will be a surprisingly close game before the ‘Skins get the win.

-With Vince Young having already touched the ball a lot more against the Chargers, just how much time does Kerry Collins have left?

-By the time week 4 is done, people will be look back on week 3’s Monday Night Football game featuring Atlanta at New Orleans as the best of the season so far, and not many would have predicted that going into the season, I shouldn’t have thought.