Weeks 3 & 4

In my last article I predicted that New Orleans and Atlanta would spring what pre-season would have been seen as a surprise and participate in the best Monday Night Football game as we headed into week 5, and to a degree I’d say I was right. Not necessarily because this was a stunning, hard-fought game of football.. Not because there was a performance by a player that will go down in the annals of the game. And not really because of any other reason than the feel-good factor. For the first time after a season of having homes away from home (due to the havoc created by Hurricane Katrina), the Saints were going back to the Superdome. And when Saints Safety Steve Gleason burst through the Falcons ranks to block the punt attempt, for Curtis Deloatch to throw himself on the loose ball, touchdown. The crowd go insane, the commentators get a chance to immortalise themselves as part of a moment of what will be classic NFL footage. In the wake of the devastation to their city, the Saints had scored within a few small minutes of their return, and they were officially home. They would go on to win 23-3, and even the Falcons team and staff post-game found it hard to put a dampener on the feel-good football of “The Superdome Special”.

The other major story since my last musings is undoubtedly the latest instalment in the Terrell Owens Saga (as they will inevitably call the film of his life in years to come), but I’ll get to that.

Week 3 was an interesting week for people making predictions as there were a massive ten wins for the road teams, including Denver getting a solid win against the Patriots in Foxboro and Cincinnati beating Pittsburgh’s “World Champions”. Throughout the last two weeks of the season the surprises have kept on coming thick and fast, worthy mentions being Chicago’s 37-6 win over the Seattle Seahawks, New England squashing the Bengals as previously mentioned, and the Giants having 42 points put past them by Seattle. One of the big stories of the first two weeks was the Panthers, many pundits choice to win the Superbowl as the season opened, going 0-2. They’ve started to turn that around now, with a 2-2 record after 3-point wins at Tampa Bay (with a Kasay field goal at the death) and at home against high-flying New Orleans, and with Steve Smith back in the fold perhaps they’ll start to show the quality that had people making those predictions. Another team who’ve come back from 0-2 after the opening couple of weeks is my pre-season pick to be the most disappointing team of the year, the Washington Redskins, who after an expected win over Houstin in week 3, fought out an over-time win at FedEx Field which puts them back within touching distance of the top of NFC East.

A notable performance from the past two weeks has to be Brett Favre, who lead the Packers to their first win (a win that would put me out of PFC’s survivor after I chose the Lions to squeeze past Green Bay) in week three, with 340 yards and 3 touchdowns in what Green Bay fans would have been hoping was a sign of things to come and proof that his decision to stay on wasn’t misguided, but then an iffy performance against Philly last Monday night including a few turnovers probably put a dampener on that.

Broncos report
After a defeat to the Rams and getting the win in a snore-fest against the Chiefs in week 2, the Broncos and especially Jake Plummer were coming under fire for their performances, and there was much speculation as to whether Plummer’s seeming regression back to his mistake-laden performances of old was the cue for young Jay Cutler to step in and take over at quarter-back. I said in my previous article that no matter the result against New England, Shanahan wasn’t going to drop Plummer, but fortunately that situation never arose as Denver got a great result over the Patriots, which gives them two wins over the Pats in their last two meetings. The most optimistic stats aside from Plummer being as good as he was (250-plus yards, no turnovers, two touchdowns) must be the performance of Tatum Bell. Having re-gained his spot as #1 running back for Denver -not having really lost it in the first place- he proceeded to have another big game with 123 yards, which even if he didn’t get any touchdowns to go with them, as long as the team is getting up the pitch it doesn’t really matter. Another great sign was that Javon Walker, who’d been part of the disappointing passing game in the first two weeks got 130 yards and two touchdowns against the Patriots, showing that he’s certainly capable of being a go-to receiver alongside Rod Smith when Plummer is doing his job. Next up for the Broncos is MNF against Baltimore at home, which I have a feeling is going to be dull to a similar degree as, say, listening to paint dry. Still, I think a win is on the cards for Denver, with Baltimore putting up a strong resistance on defence but falling short.

Draft stars

I wrote about the top five draft picks after week 2, as an indication of how the supposed stars of this years NFL draft were getting on after these early stages, and not a lot has changed with most of the rookies since then, but for Vince Young and Matt Leinart, poor performances from starting quarter-backs have allowed them to get a foot in the door with Vince Young having started in a big loos to the Chargers (Kerry Collins ended up with the same number of pass attempts as Young, but did considerably worse with them) and Matt Leinart having been named as starter for Sunday’s game against Kansas, after the Cardinal’s coach described their performance against Atlanta as “ludicrous”. Whether he can change the teams fortunes single-handedly isn’t really the issue, as there will undoubtedly be a bedding in period as he gets used to the team and the team gets used to him, the one thing that’s for sure is that he’s got a hell of a task on his hands.

Bold predictions

And we come to the part where I review my pre-season predictions and see how they’re currently standing up against the reality.

The big one is who I picked for Superbowl champions, and my pick in Indianapolis is still looking a decent (if predictable) call as they’re undefeated with a 4-0 record. The only concern is the defence which has conceded a respectable 14 points against the Jaguars, and then 28 points in New York as Chad Pennington continued to put up decent numbers for the Jets.

My choice of Arizona as the most improved team is looking a less sound forecast as they go into their game against Kansas with a 1-3 record and resorting to dropping Kurt Warner in favour of rookie Matt Leinart, which isn’t exactly an omen of a team on the rise. Oh well, can’t win ‘em all.

Then came my pick of an AFC Championship spot for the Broncos, a choice that from weeks 1 and 2 was looking like I was deluding myself, but –and while I don’t want to jump to conclusions early- a win over New England has me thinking that it might not have been so silly after all. Here’s hoping.

My last and possibly boldest season prediction was that the Redskins would be the most disappointing team by the time the regular season drew to a close, which isn’t looking like the good call it seemed after two games, with a win over the Texans to get them back on track followed by an overtime win against the then 2-1 Jaguars, but with a rivalry game against the Giants coming up, it’s not an easy call as to whether they’ll finish week 5 with a winning or losing record.

Random thoughts and predictions

-Carolina could explode all over Cleveland after a few weeks of not getting scores they would have expected. Steve Smith will have a great game, as is usually the case the rest of the O will click with him in the team and the Browns won’t be able to handle it (there aren’t a lot of teams who can when Carolina are on-form).

-Terrell Owens will obviously be fired up for this week’s game as he’ll want to show the Eagles what they’re missing…. Well, missing on on the field anyway. He’ll be up for this game even more because of the whole suicide/ accidental overdose issue, wanting to prove for a second week that it’s not effecting his game. When the “news” came out I was very much in the “Well I guess we’ll never know,” camp, and judging by his press conference and the way he handled himself last week I think it probably was just another storm in a teacup, and not the suicide attempt it was originally reported as.

-Albert Hayneswoth was absolutely right when he said that standing on another player’s head was “wrong” and that it wasn’t “that's not the game of football, that's not how it's supposed to be played.” Whether he was sincere or whether he was simply saying what he thought people wanted to hear I couldn’t possibly speculate, but either way, he’s right, standing on the head of Andre Gurode was idiotic, nothing more and nothing less.

-Looks like we’re in for another dull Monday Night.

-Pittsburgh could be in for another rough week in San Diego. I wouldn’t be entirely surprised if they end up 1-3.

Game-by-game predictions

Buffalo Bills vs Chicago Bears
I think this may end up being a surprisingly tough game, even with the Chicago offence having been mostly very good thus far, but in the end even if the Bills manage to slow down the Bears when they have the ball, the Chicago D will take care of business when the Bills have the ball and so a home win is on the cards here.

Cleveland Browns vs Carolina Panthers
As I’ve already mentioned, I think this could be a rout for the Panthers, not necessarily because I think the Browns will have a particularly bad game, but because I think it’s about time the Panthers show their Superbowl credentials with a performance we know the players are capable of and the Browns will be able to do little to stop it, even though they’ll manage to put up a few points of their own with Charlie Frye being good again.

Detroit Lions vs Minnesota Vikings

Despite having picked the Lions to turn over the Packers and being proved wrong by a reasonable margin, I don’t think there’s much to suggest they’re going to go to Minnesota and beat them on their own turf. So I think the Vikings will get some big plays over the course of the game to get a good win to ease the sting of their last few results.

Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots

If the Fins can’t do much on either side of the ball against the Texans then, with all due respect, how can they expect to suddenly get a win over Brady et al? Obviously the rivalry between the teams could, in theory, drive Miami to improve but I think in reality there will be a slow start to the match as the Dolphins try to focus on not conceding points more than getting some for themselves, as the Pats slowly but surely pull them apart through the course of the game for a win by a margin of double-figures.

St. Louis Rams vs Green Bay Packers

Chris has gone for the Packers in his predictions (see the front page, if you somehow managed to miss them) but I think that’s a little optimistic, and am going to take the easy route and pick the Rams. St. Louis might not be Philly and are unlikely to decimate the Packers, but they’re also not the Lions so they’re going to do better. Unless Brett Favre has an absolutely tremendous game I think the Rams will get a handy win here.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs New Orleans Saints

The atmosphere in the Superdome should be electric once more as the Saints aim to keep the bandwagon rolling, and the Bucs aren’t particularly looking like spoiling the party based on their start. They’ll miss Simms and New Orleans won’t make the late mistakes that Delhomme did in their last game. The good times will continue to roll for the Saints.

Tennessee Titans vs Indianapolis Colts

There’s really not much to comment on here. The Titans D is less-than-special at the best of times, and against Peyton Manning it’s hardly going to suddenly turn into a brick wall. Vince Young will be interesting to watch but he’s not going to put the Colts to shame. The Titans will get some points but ultimately Indy will rumble onwards into their bye week with a 100% intact.

Washington Redskins vs New York Giants

I think this game will end up in very high numbers for both teams offensively, And because of that, it’s going to come down to competition between the key positions; Quarter-back, running back and receivers. Portis vs Tiki Barber is pretty even for my money. Portis has the edge in terms of form, but I think this is a game where Barber could thrive if the ‘Skins pass-rush pressures Manning like it did Leftwich and he gets a lot more of the ball. Recievers I’d say are pretty even as well, which leaves quarterback. Brunell or Manning? Manning is still a little shaky at times and Brunell is mostly very stable, but if it comes to a passing battle I think Manning will give the Giants the edge, assuming the secondary tightens up compared to their recent pass-defence efforts.

Kansas City Chiefs vs Arizona Cardinals

The Chiefs always look capable of scoring points, and the Cardinals always seem capable of conceding them this season, which doesn’t make for good reading for Cards fans. However, if Leinart had to pick one of the bigger teams to make his first start against then he could have picked worse than KC. Sure, they’re capable of putting big points on the board, but their defence isn’t always the sturdiest, and if Leinart hooks up with the rest of the offence early then he might get decent stats. Still, it won’t be enough to top the Chiefs who’ll run away with this one in the latter stages of the game.

New York Jets vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Pennington isn’t going to do as well in Jacksonville against that D. They’ve not had the best two performances in their last couple of games but they’ll slow down the Jets this week and end up with a solid victory by the time the game comes to a close.

Oakland Raiders vs San Francisco 49ers

I can’t say much else about the woes of the Raiders that hasn’t been said, and the 49ers are far from a big threat, but they’ll do enough at home to get an extra notch in the W column.

Dallas Cowboys vs Philadelphia Eagles

This promises to be the most entertaining game of the year even if you don’t look at the undercurrents between T.O. and the Eagles. We’ve got two teams who score touchdowns for fun when they’re on their respective games, but the key for Owens and McNabb is to ignore the stories and speculation and what’s gone on between them for the duration of the game so they don’t run the risk of trying too hard to beat the other man and playing poorly. Assuming this land-mine is avoided then I think the Eagles will take the home advantage and get a victory over the ‘Boys in what promises to be the most scintillating encounter of the year so far.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs San Diego Chargers

I’ve mentioned this fixture already, and this isn’t a game the Steelers need right now, but I see them either blasting their way past the Chargers or the Chargers doing the same to them. I don’t foresee much middle-ground or a tight game. I think that Philip Rivers will run a careful game against a dangerous Steelers defence and that Tomlinson will take the workload put upon him and have a good game to lead San Diego to a victory over the champs.

Baltimore Ravens vs Denver Broncos

The Ravens aren’t a good road team, and they aren’t going to change that against a Broncos team who will feel they’re back in business after a great win over New England. The Baltimore D is good, but their defensive backs could have serious problems if Plummer and Walker hook up like they did last time out, and Tatum Bell will be ready to pick up where he left off at Foxboro if the Ravens concentrate on stopping the pass. These things considered, and with a belief the Broncos can contain the Ravens offence then I see Broncos getting the win on Monday night.