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- Week 11 NFL Predictions: Can Terrell Owens Stop the Colts?

Chris Pokorny November 18, 2006
Chris Pokorny
PFC Owner & Writer

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It is Week 11 in the National Football League, and we're coming off of a week that saw several teams solidify themselves in postseason position. The Seattle Seahawks all but claimed their division with a season sweep over the St. Louis Rams, and the Baltimore Ravens rallied back and gained yet another game on the Cincinnati Bengals. Here are the latest playoff seeds...(Note, the following list should represent the playoff seeds as they stand heading into Week 11, and the number in parenthesis tells what position that team was in last week)...

AFC
1. Indianapolis Colts (1)
2. Denver Broncos (2)
3. Baltimore Ravens (3)
4. New England Patriots (4)
5. San Diego Chargers (5)
6. Jacksonville Jaguars (6)

NFC
1. Chicago Bears (1)
2. Seattle Seahawks (4)
3. New Orleans Saints (3)
4. New York Giants (2)
5. Philadelphia Eagles (-)
6. Dallas Cowboys (-)

In the AFC, none of the spots changed from a week ago, which makes sense since all of the teams were victorious except for the division-leading Patriots and the Jaguars. In the NFC, there was plenty of change. The only teams that kept their spots were the first-ranked Bears and the third-ranked Saints. The Giants fell to fourth due to a conference loss, and the Seahawks went to second place with a conference win. The Falcons and the Vikings dropped out of the wildcard race, allowing two NFC East teams to claim their spots. Let's get to this week's predictions now, starting with the games of the week...

THE TEAM THAT MAY JUST DO IT

Indianapolis Colts vs. Dallas Cowboys. If there is a team that's going to beat the Colts this season, it may very well be the Cowboys. Since Tony Romo took over the Cowboys offense, the unit has looked much smoother. Terrell Owens is pleased with the "proper" attention he is receiving from Romo, and with the exception of the unusual field goal blocked against Washington, it's been a bright couple of weeks for Bill Parcells and company. The Cowboys have two solid running backs in Marion Barber III and Julius Jones, so which one should the team utilize more this week? It should be whoever has the hot hand, much like the Denver Broncos did a few weeks ago when Mike Bell gashed the Colts' run defense.

When the Colts offense comes into town, it almost doesn't matter how good your team's defense is, because Peyton Manning does what he needs to do to pick up a win. Against the Patriots, Manning made all of the clutch throws to Marvin Harrison. When he faced the Broncos, he knew to exploit the match-up involving Reggie Wayne. And, against the Bills last week, he made the safe throws and applied the running game to run the clock at the end of the game. Almost every team that faces the Colts can say "man, he just barely beat us". However, that's almost far from the truth, because he is doing exactly what he needs to do to win. Against the Cowboys, whether he airs it out or not will depend on how he thinks the defense will work when he steps on the field.

After two seasons of starting the year at 9-0 and possibly better, I think it's safe to say that the Colts are almost a no-brainer pick every week. However, I do have to make it clear that I believe the Cowboys have the best shot at the Colts this season (barring scrap games at the end of the season). With that, I'll take the Colts to win by their typical spread - not too much, but just enough. Oh, and the only time Mike Vanderjagt sees the field will be on extra points. Colts 27, Cowboys 21

BIG OFFENSE VS. BIG DEFENSE

San Diego Chargers vs. Denver Broncos. The Chargers are starting to take the old mentality of the Colts and Chiefs: score so much that it doesn't matter how much your defense allows. After only giving up 11 points a game on average through the first five games, the Chargers are giving up a ridiculous 30 points a game over the past four. During their past four games though, they are 3-1 because their offense is averaging 36.5 points a game. The Chargers will look to get LaDainian Tomlinson going early against the Denver Broncos defense, which has started to slip against some of the threatening offensive teams like the Colts and the Steelers. Although Tomlinson broke the record with most touchdowns over a span of games, it's been the play of quarterback Phillip Rivers that has led San Diego to this type of success. Without having a big-play wide receiver (excluding Gates/Tomlinson), Rivers has made plays week in and week out.

Meanwhile, the Broncos defense that seemed so "good" to begin the season doesn't really have that reputation anymore. It's not the defense is garbage by any means, because their secondary is still very solid as well as their run defense. However, the pace of not allowing touchdowns could only last so long, and fortunately, Jake Plummer did respond by throwing a couple more touchdowns than usual as of late. The primary key for Denver has been the play of Javon Walker though, because without him, the Broncos may be a .500 team right now. The Broncos are now trying to decide who their running back is, and although any Denver running back seems to do good, that really hasn't been the case lately. Despite being on the road, Tomlinson and Rivers are rolling too much to be stopped now. Chargers 35, Broncos 25.

CAN'T BE THREE IN A ROW, RIGHT?

New England Patriots vs. Green Bay Packers. After going so long without losing two games in a row, surely the Patriots won't drop their third consecutive game, right? The Patriots won't have it easy this week, because they are facing a surging Packers team that is a legitimate playoff contender with another victory. Brett Favre is showing people why he's not ready to retire, and the running game has really improved under a healthy Ahman Green and solid play from the backups. The defense for Green Bay isn't lights out, but they have complimented the play of the offense appropriately to get some stops at the right time.

What's been wrong with the Patriots? Obviously the loss to the Colts was tough, but the loss to the Jets at home was heartbreaking. Tom Brady has not been able to step his game up, something that the city of New England is not used to. This can almost be considered one of the worst statistical stretches of Brady's career, and with another loss the Patriots would be in danger of losing their divisional lead for the first time in years. Although the Packers have been good, all of their wins have come over teams below .500. Brady and the Patriots are 4-0 this season on the road, and that'll continue this week in what should be a rather exciting game. Patriots 20, Packers 17.

SHOOT'EM ONE WEEK, SHOOT'EM THE NEXT

Cincinnati Bengals vs. New Orleans Saints. Last week, both of these teams were involved in the shootouts of the week. Unfortunately, the Bengals and Saints both lost their respective games. Logically, both teams know they have vulnerabilities on defense and would like to run the football to keep their defense off the field. The Saints have a better shot at running the ball in this game with Deuce McAllister, and allowing the pass-catching Reggie Bush to take advantage of the Bengals porous defense. The Bengals haven't been able to sustain the type of running games they would've liked to, due to all of their offensive line issues. The Bengals will be forced to go to the air with the combination of Carson Palmer to Chad Johnson again, and chances are that it'll have success.

That means that in turn, the Saints won't be able to run the clock out as they wish if the Bengals keep scoring. Nobody can stop Marques Colston, and Drew Brees has been able to spread the ball around to several underrated offensive weapons. At first, I was somewhat inclined to believe that this game could actually become a tough defensive battle, since both teams would like to manage the game efficiently to win rather than airing it out and seeing who can score more. However, neither team is good enough to manage the game with how the defenses are playing, but the Saints do have the defensive advantage. Saints 40, Bengals 35.

REST OF THE WEEK

Atlanta Falcons vs. Baltimore Ravens. The Titans nearly upset the Ravens last week, but Steve McNair led yet another come-from-behind victory. Meanwhile, the Falcons lost their second game in a row to a team that only had one or two wins at the time, and are on the bridges of collapsing. It's almost as if the Falcons gained a false sense of confidence in Michael Vick's ability to throw due to his success against the Bengals and the Steelers, because the lack of running the football has cost them big time the past two weeks. That has to be the focus for Atlanta this week, and with Ray Lewis out again, the Falcons will run the football successfully just like Travis Henry did a week ago. Consider this the upset of the week, because no one is giving Atlanta a chance. Falcons 17, Ravens 9.

Buffalo Bills vs. Houston Texans. I may be making a mistake with my thinking abilities towards the Texans, because despite them being impressive in their three wins, two of them have been against the Jaguars. Against other teams, they've generally still looked like the struggling Texans. The Bills have been a very competitive team meanwhile, and nearly upset the Colts last week in losing by one. Anthony Thomas did well last week, but against most teams, they really do need Willis McGahee. J.P. Losman doesn't throw the ball enough to ever allow the Bills to run away with a game, and the Texans have been managed well by David Carr in close situations. Texans 16, Bills 12.

Chicago Bears vs. New York Jets. After supposedly defeating the "better" New York football team a week earlier in the same exact stadium, surely they can do it again this week, right? The Jets deserve a ton of credit for gutting out a victory over the Patriots last week and finally establishing themselves as a legitimate threat by beating a team with a winning record. The big run by Thomas Jones last week lit a spark under the Bears again for some reason, leading to a tear that couldn't be stopped. If there's one thing you can bank on for this game, Eric Mangini won't attempt a 55-yard field goal with Mike Nugent. Bears 27, Jets 16.

Minnesota Vikings vs. Miami Dolphins. This is the game of the week if you're looking for teams heading in opposite directions all of a sudden. The Vikings were in position for a playoff spot, and then fell to the Patriots, 49ers, and Packers with lackluster offensive efforts. The Dolphins upset the Bears two weeks ago, but then continued that trend with a solid defensive win over the Kansas City Chiefs. Although the Dolphins are rallying too late for a playoff spot, then can still build some momentum heading into next season, just like they did last year (look at the good that did). The game shouldn't have too many highlights, but Ronnie Brown has stepped his game up.Dolphins 14, Vikings 10.

Oakland Raiders vs. Kansas City Chiefs. Although he'll be without Tony Gonzalez, this marks the return of quarterback Trent Green to the lineup. Damon Huard did a tremendous job for a backup, but Green will be the person they depend on if they want a shot at the playoffs. The Raiders defense has not been the problem this year, it's back the lack of spark on offense. LaMont Jordan can't run the ball, and Andrew Walter can't find a target. I think Aaron Brooks is a better fit for the Raiders offense than Walter, but it wouldn't make much of a difference who starts at the position. Larry Johnson will improve upon his performance from last week. Chiefs 31, Raiders 7.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cleveland Browns. The Steelers secondary is a big reason they are 3-6 this year, and with the risk of playing Troy Polamalu this week (concussion), the Browns will try to exploit their secondary early in the game, just like they did with the Falcons a week ago. The Steelers have the mentality that they still have a shot at the playoffs, but that hope is going to end here. The Browns have been preparing for this game all season, after they were upset at being blown out 41-0 last season on Christmas Eve. Cleveland's defense has physically beaten teams up, and will force Roethlisberger into another mistake riddled week. Browns 23, Steelers 20.

St. Louis Rams vs. Carolina Panthers. Although the Rams defense has not been as dominating as the team had hoped, Marc Bulger's production during the team's four-game losing streak hasn't been very explosive. The Rams chances at a playoff spot are slim to none now with two losses to the Seahawks, and the Panthers are looking to peak at just the right time. However, the Panthers will not be able to attain the success they desire unless DeShaun Foster starts running the football better. Julius Peppers and the Panthers defense are playing good enough to compensate for early offensive struggles. Panthers 30, Rams 23.

Tennessee Titans vs. Philadelphia Eagles. The Titans have almost played spoiler to teams like the Colts and the Ravens, but have failed to get the job done. They may feel better about themselves against an Eagles team that suffered numerous surprising defeats earlier this season. Donovan McNabb can play a much better game when Donte Stallworth is at full strength, and at home, the Eagles won't allow this one to be close. Vince Young still has not developed into enough of a threat in the passing game, and the running game should be little to none for Travis Henry this time.Eagles 20, Titans 3.

Washington Redskins vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Clinton Portis is done for the season, Santana Moss is injured, Mark Brunell has been benched, and Jason Campbell is the new starting quarterback. That sounds like disaster for the Redskins, and barring an amazing effort by Campbell, that's exactly what it will be. The Buccaneers won't light it up, but don't be surprised if the Redskins fail to muster any offense this week. Bruce Gradkowski hasn't played bad this season, but the Buccaneers simply don't have enough weapons to sustain a threat. Buccaneers 10, Redskins 7.

Detroit Lions vs. Arizona Cardinals. Honestly, if this is the game you're watching this Sunday, I'd have to imagine that you're 100% sure a Lions or Cardinals fan only. Both teams have been major disappointments this season, considering both teams were supposed to be big-time offensive threats. The Cardinals offense has been a mess since Dennis Green fired the offensive coordinator, but the Lions have at least been successful with the tandem of Jon Kitna, Roy Williams, and Kevin Jones. The Cardinals are primed for Matt Leinart's first win of his career, but it won't get too much recognition due to the lack of hype involved with this game. Cardinals 24, Lions 23.

Seattle Seahawks vs. San Francisco 49ers. Mike Nolan in a suit will lead the 49ers to a victory. Seriously though, Nolan deserves a lot of credit for getting his team to second place in the division, and in position to even challenge for the division this late in the season still. He has gotten the best out of his players on several occasions this year, especially from running back Frank Gore. The 49ers could see the return of Vernon Davis this week in a backup role, which adds to the possibility of an upset. However, if the Seahawks have Hasselbeck and Alexander back, it shouldn't be a contest. Even without them, I'd still take the Seahawks to win, despite the fact that the 49ers play well at home. Seahawks 28, 49ers 17.

New York Giants vs. Jacksonville Jaguars. Both teams are coming off of key losses last week, but the Giants were at least competitive for the most part in their game. David Garrard was intercepted four times, primarily from the poor play of his receivers. The Giants appeared to have the number of the Bears early, and then fell flat late. The injuries to players like Michael Strahan and Amani Toomer could drop the Giants into a mini-funk, but that's the reason they drafted for depth this season. Giants 23, Jaguars 16.

I finally ended my three-game survivor losing streak last week and am back on the winning side after taking the Broncos over the Raiders. I'll test my fate with a similar situation this week, as I'm picking the Kansas City Chiefs to topple the Oakland Raiders.

Predictions Record to Date: 89-55(Can I reach the century mark this week?)
Last Week: 10-6(Ten wins in a week is only average.)
Survivor Streak: Won 1 (Phi over Hou, Bal over Oak, Was over Hou, Cle over Oak, NO over TB, Dal over Hou, Jac over Hou, Pit over Oak, Chi over Mia, KC over Oak.)

Michigan vs. Ohio State will be the talk of Saturday, but don't forget about all of the action Sunday and Monday in the NFL.

-Chris Pokorny


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