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- Week 12 NFL Predictions: Thanksgiving Day Upsets?

Chris Pokorny November 23, 2006
Chris Pokorny
PFC Owner & Writer

Tell Chris your opinion.

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Gobble, Gobble, Gobble! It's Turkey Week in the NFL, meaning that we'll get to enjoy two lovely games involving the Detroit Lions and the Dallas Cowboys because it's tradition, right? Well, don't forget that the NFL Network is airing a third game this season, which just so happens to be one of the top games this week: the Chiefs taking on the Broncos. Before we get to the predictions though, here are the latest playoff seeds...(Note, the following list should represent the playoff seeds as they stand heading into Week 12, and the number in parenthesis tells what position that team was in last week)...

AFC
1. Indianapolis Colts (1)
2. Baltimore Ravens (3)
3. San Diego Chargers (5)
4. New England Patriots (4)
5. Denver Broncos (2)
6. Jacksonville Jaguars (6)
----------------------
7. Kansas City Chiefs
8. New York Jets
9. Cincinnati Bengals

NFC
1. Chicago Bears (1)
2. Seattle Seahawks (2)
3. New York Giants (4)
4. Carolina Panthers (-)
5. New Orleans Saints (3)
6. Dallas Cowboys (6)
----------------------
7. Philadelphia Eagles
8. San Francisco 49ers
9. Atlanta Falcons

The Denver Broncos learned the hard way what a division loss can do: drop you from having a possible first-round bye down to a wildcard spot. No new teams arrived in the actual wildcard hunt in the AFC once again, but the Chiefs are quickly creeping up, looking to take the Jaguars or Broncos spot. In the NFC, the Giants found themselves actually jump up to the third seed, despite losing on Monday Night. That was a result of the Saints moving from a divisional leader to a wildcard team after the Carolina Panthers shut out the St. Louis Rams. The Eagles not only lost Donovan McNabb, they lost their playoff spot as well. And, believe it or not, the Seahawks are still the second seed in the NFC.

Now, to this week's predictions. Usually, I start out with the four games of the week. However, since there are three games on Thanksgiving, I'm going to start with those games first, and then head into the top four games of the week. One of those Turkey games just happens to be a game of the week though...

TURKEY DAY MASSACRE

Miami Dolphins vs. Detroit Lions. It's easy to say that the surging Dolphins will be able to walk into Detroit and pick up a victory over a bad team. However, we should know that the Lions often show up on Thanksgiving, and are looking to seek vengeance after their loss to the Arizona Cardinals last week. Dolphins' quarterback Joey Harrington will have a chance to beat his former team, and possibly get his team back into a playoff race. Jon Kitna has had his moments this season, but the Dolphins' defense is playing like the playoff-contending team we thought they would be to start the season. Ronnie Brown will provide the Dolphins with just enough of a push to get it done offensively in what should be a close game throughout. Dolphins 24, Lions 20

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Dallas Cowboys. The Buccaneers are playing their third game in eleven days, and are looking to win their second game in a row. The Cowboys are the only playoff contending team playing in the traditional Thanksgiving games, and that could stem from Bill Parcells naming Tony Romo the starting quarterback a few weeks ago. Romo has done more than the Cowboys could have as asked for, and officially established himself over Drew Bledsoe with a win over the undefeated Colts. The Buccaneers defense will put up a fighting effort early, but their offensive woes will eventually allow the Cowboys to cruise to an easy victory. Cowboys 26, Buccaneers 13

NFL NETWORK PREMIERE

Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs. It's unfortunate that unless you live near Kansas City or Denver, you won't be seeing this football game Thursday night. This game marks the premiere of a regular season game on Thursday, and has stirred a bit of controversy due to the lack of people that will be able to see the game. Regardless, this is one of the games of the week, and could spell disaster for the Denver Broncos. This is Denver's second straight divisional game, and another loss would almost destroy their chances of capturing anything other than a wildcard spot come playoff time.

Last week, the Chiefs were pleased to have quarterback Trent Green back on the football field, but things weren't so bright at first. Although Green didn't make any mistakes, the team's offense was struggling most of the game - that is, until Green has a chance to win the game. Green was able to engineer a game-winning touchdown drive against the Raiders, thanks to some help from the one and only Larry Johnson. The Broncos defense was worn down against high offensive powered teams this season, but Green had trouble finding someone to throw the football to against Oakland. That'll change this week with the likely return of Pro Bowl tight end Tony Gonzalez, who has been Green's security blanket throughout the years.

For Denver, although the defense isn't even close to being considered "bad", the lack of pass rush they generate is the reason that teams like the Colts, Chargers, and even the Steelers were able to have some success offensively against them. The Broncos were unsuccessful in stopping LaDainian Tomlinson last week, and the Chiefs will try to exploit that weakness in any way possible. Jake Plummer continues to make too many mistakes at inopportune times, but there's no way the team can switch to a rookie quarterback at this point of the season. The Broncos worked well with running back Damien Nash last week, but the platoon between Mike Bell, Tatum Bell, and Nash is only showing that the Broncos can't find a running back to perform the same way each and every week. At Arrowhead, the Chiefs will pick up the victory and temporarily hold a wildcard spot. Chiefs 31, Broncos 27

NO SHUTOUTS THIS TIME

Chicago Bears vs. New England Patriots. With each team obviously being a top contender in their respective conferences, it's doubtful that either team will be able to report their defensive performances from a week ago when they each shut out their opponents. The Patriots whooped the Packers 35-0 on the road, while the Bears gutted out a 10-0 win over the New York Jets. Neither team fell victim to teams that were "average" but "surging", but the Patriots no doubt were able to play a more complete game. Despite the Bears facing a team that gives up a lot of points on offense, the game would've been 3-0 only had the Jets not allowed a big touchdown play in which a defensive back stumbled. Still, the Bears defense deserves a ton of credit for shutting down Chad Pennington.

The concerns of whether or not Tom Brady would fall into a slump should've ended right after his first touchdown pass against the Packers. In Brady's pair of losses, he was not in sync with his receivers at all, forcing him to turn the ball over numerous times. The Bears' secondary is too good to allow Brady to step back and pick them apart though, so he'll need some help on the defensive side of the ball. Rex Grossman and the Bears' offense still have some of the best statistical numbers in the league, but it's clear that the execution has been inconsistent over the past several weeks. Both teams should go back and forth with field goals, as well as several defensive plays to set the offenses up with good field position. Although home field advantage hasn't been their friend lately, the Bears won't win their third in a row on the road. Patriots 17, Bears 16.

IF THEY DO IT AGAIN, THEY DESERVE IT

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Baltimore Ravens. If the Pittsburgh Steelers can rally back and get a wildcard spot for the second season in a row, then they definitely deserve to go to the postseason. Ben Roethlisberger found some of his old "magic" against a Cleveland Browns secondary that was one of the top ranked pass defenses in the league last week, despite playing awful in the first half. The defense still needs to get back on track, because although they held the Browns' offense to three points, they weren't even close to being in position to intercept any of Charlie Frye's passes, and nearly allowed two "Hail Mary" like touchdowns at the end of each half.

Everyone keeps doubting the Baltimore Ravens. Supposedly, the Bengals and the Steelers will start closing in on them, and I've actually been a part of that assumption by picking the Ravens to lose more times than not. Steve McNair and Jamal Lewis are getting things going on the right track offensively, and Baltimore has been able to win two straight without linebacker Ray Lewis. The Bengals may have a shot at catching Baltimore, but the Steelers' hopes end here. In most of the Steelers losses, turnovers have plagued them. Without having enough of a power running game against Baltimore, Roethlisberger will have to pass too often, something you don't want to do against the Ravens defense. Ravens 27, Steelers 24 in OVERTIME.

POINTS ALL OVER THE BOARD

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Cleveland Browns. The Bengals have officially made a new commitment offensively: throw the football to Chad Johnson. That strategy will work against just about any defense in the league, and the Bengals know that if they try and play a game managing offense, their defense is bound to give up points on the fly. Although Cincinnati's defense deserves credit for forcing several turnovers against Drew Brees last week, they were absolutely torched at the same time, giving up more than 500 yards passing. The Bengals already own a division win over the Browns this season, but Johnson has always given credit to Browns cornerback Leigh Bodden for being someone that has been able to "cover" him rather well in the past.

The Browns are coming off of a disheartening loss to the Steelers last week, but there's no question that they are in every football game that they play. Charlie Frye has not thrown an interception in the past two weeks, after throwing an interception in every game this season before that. Braylon Edwards called out the coaches to open things up and be aggressive in the red zone this week after settling for field goals most of the season. With Reuben Droughns returning, the Browns are likely to throw the ball early and often, a sign that Frye could have one of his best offensive games of his career. Although I'm expecting this game to be a shootout, the Bengals offense is clicking more than just about any other team in the league right now (except the Chargers). Bengals 34, Browns 28.

REST OF THE WEEK

Arizona Cardinals vs. Minnesota Vikings. The Vikings have fallen into the same hole as the Rams have: a lack of fire. Brad Johnson is not playing well enough to win, partially because the receivers that played rather well earlier this season have nearly become dormant. Chestor Taylor is still doing fine while carrying the offensive load, but the explosiveness from this team has disappeared. Matt Leinart picked up his first career win over the Detroit Lions last week, as he was finally able to have some support from the team's running game. The Vikings do a good job at stopping the run though, and Edgerrin James will fall back into his typical "grind-em" type of day since coming to Arizona. Look for Neil Rackers to keep his team in the game with four field goals. Vikins 14, Cardinals 12.

Carolina Panthers vs. Washington Redskins. Last year, the presence of a running game late in the season allowed the Panthers to catapult themselves into the postseason. When Jake Delhomme struggled most of the day against the Rams defense last week, DeAngelo Williams provided enough of a spark throughout the waning moments of the game to give the Panthers a comfortable lead. Of course, when your defense shuts out a potent offense, you're bound to win regardless of what the offense does. Jason Campbell played well in his first game against the Buccaneers last week, but things will be a lot tougher when he has Julius Peppers breathing down his neck all game long. Panthers 20, Redskins 0.

Houston Texans vs. New York Jets. Despite having one of the league's easier schedules remaining, the Jets are still huge underdogs simply because they weren't supposed to be as good as they've played. The Jets can only hope that their loss to the Bears didn't kill any of the energy this team has, because the Texans have not been laying down for anyone lately. Houston has started to find success in their running game with Wali Lundy, and Andre Johnson is becoming Mr. Possession Man of the NFL. Pennington will attack the Texans pass defense off of playaction and try to connect on the deep ball just as J.P. Losman did to Lee Evans a week ago.Jets 17, Texans 14.

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Buffalo Bills. Considering the inconsistency provided by both teams, the Bills and the Jaguars are actually very comparable teams. Both defenses have made game-changing plays in their victories this year, while the offenses have had their share of bright moments. The Bills let Losman throw the football more often that he usually does last week, and it paid off early as he connected on two 83-yard touchdown passes to Evans. The Jaguars will be forced to continue to stick with David Garrard after Byron Leftwich's surgery, and have used the support from their running game to move the football. The Jaguars are potentially the better team, but they have played down to their competition too much this season. Bills 27, Jaguars 7.

New Orleans Saints vs. Atlanta Falcons. With another loss, the Falcons will drop their fourth in a row and basically eliminate themselves from having any shot at winning the NFC South. The Saints may take a big hit without Marques Colston, but Joe Horn and Devery Henderson have been able to step up their gameplay in recent weeks. The real person who will need to step up is Brees, who has started to throw more interceptions as of late. Defenses have keyed in on Michael Vick, and the Falcons offense hasn't shown any signs in three weeks of snapping out of it. Saints 23, Falcons 20.

San Francisco 49ers vs. St. Louis Rams. The 49ers are already half-way there when it comes to sweeping the tough competition in their division, and they've already beaten the Rams earlier this season. The recent struggles of Marc Bulger to move the ball on offense are puzzling, especially with how well he started to season. These teams are heading in opposite directions, but like the Vikings, I see the Rams finally ending their skid with a big day offensively. The 49ers are on an incredible winning streak for their standards, but have done so without having the best talent in the world. That will eventually catch up to a team, especially this late in the season (although Mike Nolan deserves coach of the year considerations). Rams 40, 49ers 22.

Oakland Raiders vs. San Diego Chargers. Honestly, is there any question who will win this game? The Raiders did almost beat the Chiefs at Arrowhead last week, after some solid play by quarterback Aaron Brooks. If the Browns, Bengals, and Broncos haven't been able to stop Tomlinson from having career-like days over the past three weeks, how will the Raiders have a chance? Yes, I know Oakland's defense is not awful by any means, but Oakland's offense will consistently set them up with horrible field position, and that spells disaster for any defense when facing Tomlinson. Chargers 37, Raiders 11.

New York Giants vs. Tennessee Titans. Vince Young has salvaged what appeared to be a disastrous start to the season when Kerry Collins was leading the Titans. Tennessee capitalized on the injury to Donovan McNabb last week and piled it on after a big touchdown run from Travis Henry and a wild punt return from Pacman Jones. The Titans have to be thrilled with the offensive potential they're showing off for the future, but that's not the case for the Giants. Eli Manning has not played well in the team's two losses, as they've gone on the same "quiet" losing streak that they were on to begin the season. This game should be a lot like the match they had versus the Texans a few weeks ago. In fact, I'll pick the same score as that game. Giants 14, Titans 10.

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Indianapolis Colts. Although it's not a horrible choice for a game, NBC has already fallen victim to their first "opps" since their flex-scheduling started. They intended this game to feature Manning vs. McNabb, but instead it'll be Manning vs. Garcia. Jeff Garcia could somehow pull something out and click with the Eagles, but his "happy feet" will only cost him on the road with Dwight Freeny chasing him down. Peyton Manning has probably worked all week long to correct the team's offensive mistakes from a week ago, and that won't be good news for the Eagles. At least we'll have fun watching an offense light it up. Colts 28, Eagles 17.

Green Bay Packers vs. Seattle Seahawks. With Matt Hasselbeck returning this week, the Seahawks are officially "back" in terms of health on offense. They need to pick up their game fast though, because despite having the second-seed in the NFC, they have allowed the 49ers to creep within one game of the division lead. The Packers laid a big egg last week against the Patriots, and the team suffered a scare when Brett Favre went down with an injury. Favre will be right back in the saddle this week, and the Packers will find their rhythm on offense again. However, look for Hasselbeck to match his Super Bowl opponent from a year ago (Brady) with a similar effort against the Packers' unreliable pass defense. Seahawks 27, Packers 24.

Last week, I took the Chiefs to beat the Raiders for my survivor pick, and I prevailed to win my second in a row. This week, I'm taking the Panthers to claw their way to a victory over the Redskins.

Predictions Record to Date: 97-63(I was three games better last season.)
Last Week: 8-8(Depressing for a 16-game week.)
Survivor Streak: Won 2 (Phi over Hou, Bal over Oak, Was over Hou, Cle over Oak, NO over TB, Dal over Hou, Jac over Hou, Pit over Oak, Chi over Mia, Den over Oak, KC over Oak.)

Happy Thanksgiving to everyone, and enjoy another week of football!

-Chris Pokorny


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