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- Week 13 NFL Predictions: Jay Cutler Has Tough Task Ahead

Chris Pokorny November 30, 2006
Chris Pokorny
PFC Owner & Writer

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It is Week 13 in the National Football League, and we're starting off on Thursday night with an exciting divisional match up between the Baltimore Ravens and the Cincinnati Bengals. Unfortunately, not a whole lot of people in the country will be able to see the game again, as it will be on the NFL Network. Now, before I get to this week's picks, let's take a look at the current playoff standings...(Note, the following list should represent the playoff seeds as they stand heading into Week 13, and the number in parenthesis tells what position that team was in last week)...

AFC
1. Indianapolis Colts (1)
2. Baltimore Ravens (2)
3. San Diego Chargers (3)
4. New England Patriots (4)
5. Kansas City Chiefs (-)
6. Denver Broncos (5)
----------------------
7. New York Jets
8. Cincinnati Bengals
9. Jacksonville Jaguars

NFC
1. Chicago Bears (1)
2. New Orleans Saints (5)
3. Seattle Seahawks (2)
4. Dallas Cowboys (6)
5. New York Giants (3)
6. Carolina Panthers (4)
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7. Minnesota Vikings
8. Philadelphia Eagles
9. San Francisco 49ers
10. St. Louis Rams
11. Atlanta Falcons

The Denver Broncos took another hit, this time losing ground to another divisional foe on the Kansas City Chiefs. The top four seeds remained the seeds, while the obvious presence of the Chiefs has knocked out the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jets and the Bengals are still in reaching distance at this point, but teams like the Dolphins aren't out of it yet. In the NFC, the Seahawks actually dropped one spot despite winning against the Packers on Monday Night. Since the Panthers lost their division lead, the Saints were able to jump back into the second seed. The Cowboys have climbed out of the wildcard slot after a collapse by the Giants, and the Bears are still alone as the top seed yet again.

Now, to this week's predictions. I went 14-2 last week, which was clearly the best week I've had this year. It kills me that I would've been 16-0 had the Panthers and the Giants not loss their games late...ugh. Let's start with this week's games of the week...

BLOCKBUSTER WE'LL MISS

Baltimore Ravens vs. Cincinnati Bengals. Chances are that unless you actually live in either of these cities, you won't be able to watch this game again since it will be on the NFL Network Thursday night. Despite that fact, I'm considering it the most important game of Week 13, and I'll certainly be listening to all of the action on the radio. The Ravens' defense was able to stop Carson Palmer the last time these two teams met in Baltimore. However, both teams are coming off of comparable victories: shutout wins over divisional foes. The Bengals crushed the Browns 30-0 in the Battle of Ohio, while the Ravens owned the Steelers 27-0 in a battle full of hate.

It's hard to go against the Ravens defense at this point of the season, but it's extremely difficult to go against Cincinnati's offense. The Ravens sacked the Steelers a franchise record nine times last week, and came one step closer to clinching the division. A victory over the Bengals can finish that goal off, so that they can focus on chasing the Indianapolis Colts for home-field advantage. Steve McNair has been a solid fit for the Ravens' offense, but nothing has been more important than Jamal Lewis catching fire as the season has moved on. Although the Bengals pitched a shutout last week, they still have tons of holes in their secondary. The Browns were already so far behind to start the game though, that their offense became too predictable.

The Bengals utilized their no-huddle offense against the Browns to work effectively, but they'll have to slow things down a little against Baltimore. Chad Johnson remained on fire last week, despite the fact that he did not catch a touchdown. The Bengals offensive line has regrouped and are keeping Carson Palmer on his feet more often than earlier this season, which is the primary reasoning behind the team's success as of late. The turnovers on defense have also been revived over the past two weeks, and that's what can make the Bengals the same competitive team that they were last season down the stretch. Both teams will have lead changes go back and forth, but Palmer's offensive approach will be too tough on a Ravens team having only a couple of days to prepare for his new schemes. Bengals 20, Ravens 16

HEADING IN OPPOSITE DIRECTIONS

Dallas Cowboys vs. New York Giants. These teams are clearly heading in opposite directions since Tony Romo has taken over the Cowboys. Romo has one major challenge ahead of him though: take command of the division. If the Giants are able to beat the Cowboys, then a tie between the teams at the end of the season would automatically give the Giants the divisional lead. A Cowboys win would not guarantee them the division crown, but a two-game lead over the next team heading into Week 14 certainly sounds pleasing. After it seemed as if the Giants were in complete control of the Titans last week, the unthinkable happened: the Giants lost a 21-point lead in the fourth quarter of a game. Known as a solid running team with Tiki Barber, that should never happen for a team looking to head into the playoffs. Barber wasn't able to put the game away, and neither was Eli Manning.

Romo has been the savior for Dallas since Drew Bledsoe was benched. The offense is responding in all aspects of the game, whether it is in the first quarter or on the final drive of a game. The only thing that has been positive for the Giants this year has come whenever they've faced a team in their division, and they're hoping that same method can cure their losing streak to close the season. Manning needs to step his game up, because he has not been the clutch quarterback the team had hoped, despite being in his second season. Losing Amani Toomer has certainly affected his numbers, but Plaxico Burress, Tiki Barber, and Jeremy Shockey are still a heck of a supporting cast. Until those guys can get on track again, the Cowboys will come into town and continue to roll due to the chemistry they have on both sides of the ball. Cowboys 31, Giants 28.

CAN CUTLER CUT IT?

Seattle Seahawks vs. Denver Broncos. Mike Shanahan has made the bold move of starting rookie quarterback Jay Cutler at a time when the team still has a playoff spot at the moment. You can't blame him due to Jake Plummer's inconsistencies, but not having a veteran starting is a big risk. Some people will try and compare the situation to what Dallas did with Tony Romo, but don't forget that Romo wasn't a rookie. He had years of experience as a backup quarterback and was mentored very well. Likewise, the reason quarterbacks like Carson Palmer and Phillip Rivers have performed so well is because they were able to sit and learn for a year or two. The Broncos' offensive line will keep Cutler on his feet, but besides Javon Walker, no one has been able to step up at the receiving position. Likewise, a true No. 1 running back has not been established in Denver through 12 weeks already. That's almost unheard of.

Meanwhile, the Seahawks already have a week's advantage of getting quarterback Matt Hasselbeck onto the field. Shaun Alexander also rebounded from his slow game two weeks ago by running for over 200 yards last week against the Packers. With both of those weapons back, the Seahawks are back to being a legitimate No. 2 seed in the NFC. Their running game is much more explosive again, as is their passing game. In turn, the defense will have better situations to work with as well and are still very opportunistic when it counts. Cutler may have a bright future, but this is too tough of a task to handle in his first game back. Even if he does well, the defense won't be able to prevent the Seahawks from scoring enough. Seahawks 23, Broncos 17.

THE BATTLE DOWN SOUTH

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Miami Dolphins. The road roes continued for the Jacksonville Jaguars last week, as they failed to capitalize against another team with a below .500 record. They'll be very close to home though as they come to Miami, Florida in a game that could very well turn out to be the defensive slugfest of the week. The Dolphins will be without running back Ronnie Brown this week, forcing them to go with veteran Sammy Morris. Although Morris performed well last week, the Jaguars have a tough run defense and it'll be difficult to imagine the Dolphins having success all day long. Joey Harrington has thrown the ball well lately, but with the questionability of the running game, he could find himself having trouble against Jacksonville's pass defense.

On the same note, the Jaguars will have the same issues offensively that the Dolphins will have. The Jaguars receivers aren't quick enough to get through Miami's secondary and will have to utilize the running game to move the ball most of the game. Miami's defense won't stand for anyone to run over them, especially with how hot they've been during their four-game winning streak. I can't imagine either team punching in an offensive touchdown this week, but a defensive score is definitely possible. The Dolphins have returned several scores this season, and a costly one will come from David Garrard in this one. Dolphins 10, Jaguars 9.

REST OF THE WEEK

Arizona Cardinals vs. St. Louis Rams. The chances of the Rams catching the Seahawks for the NFC West are slim to none, but they're only one game back of a wildcard spot. Marc Bulger and the Rams were finally able to gut out a victory last week over the 49ers at home to end their losing streak, and that may have been exactly what they needed to get over the hump. The Rams have failed to "explode" on offense for a long time now, and although I thought they would do it last week, I'm picking them to do it against the Cardinals this week. The Cardinals couldn't even stop a poor Vikings offense, but Matt Leinart's offensive firepower against a team that shuts down the running game was impressive. Still, it won't be enough to overcome what his defense gives up this week. Rams 31, Cardinals 14.

Atlanta Falcons vs. Washington Redskins. We all have known that Michael Vick hasn't been a prolific passer, but earlier this season we still felt that the running game and the defense could do enough to keep the Falcons in contention. Instead, the defense can't get the job done and Warrick Dunn hasn't been his dominating self in week. Atlanta is self-destructing quicker than the Giants are, but that could change against the Washington Redskins this week. Jason Campbell pulled out a tough victory last week despite having a rather low-key game. This week, Vick must get the ball to his tight end at least eight times, because he's the only weapon that Vick has consistently been able to have success with. More screen plays to Warrick Dunn need to be utilized to open up more holes in the running game. The Falcons will end their skid here as Vick gets back on track, at least for this week. Falcons 23, Redskins 13.

Detroit Lions vs. New England Patriots. If I wanted to see a shocker this week, then the Lions would come into New England and win. Ha! The Patriots are on top of their game after dominating the Packers two weeks ago and playing solid football against the best team in the NFC a week ago. The Lions are simply physically overmatched here, and aren't the type of team that will be able to exploit the absence of Junior Seau in the Patriots' group of linebackers. Detroit will welcome back the return of running back Kevin Jones, which will at least reduce part of the one-dimensional football they were forced to play without him. Patriots 26, Lions 6.

Indianapolis Colts vs. Tennessee Titans. Pacman Jones haunted one Manning last week, so why not another this week? Peyton Manning will be looking to avenge the loss his younger brother suffered last week (not really, but still...), and let's not forget that the Titans pushed the Colts to the limit the last time they locked up. Travis Henry's breakout game earlier this year came against Indianapolis, and they will look to run it often. The newly signed Ricky Proehl hopes to play a part in the Colts' offensive approach after the injury to Dallas Clark. Many are expecting the Titans to put up as much of a fight as they did the last time against Indianapolis, but this will be the game where the Colts open things up early and often. Colts 41, Titans 17.

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Cleveland Browns. Braylon Edwards was apologetic for his outburst on the sideline this past week when the Browns faced the Cincinnati Bengals, but the Browns need someone to light a fire under them. They've been competitive most of this season, but have always failed to come up with clutch performances on the offensive side of the ball. Their 30-0 loss shouldn't be taken into account too much this week, because the Bengals have been the only team to dominate Cleveland this year. With that said, chances are that the Browns will finish this home stretch at 0-3. The Chiefs will pound the ball away at the Browns all day and should be able to sustain at least two significant drives during the game against the Browns bend-but-don't-break defense. Look for Cleveland to try and utilize their running game more this week, as long as the Chiefs don't score quickly with a no huddle drill. Chiefs 23, Browns 20.

Minnesota Vikings vs. Chicago Bears. People may have forgotten, but the Vikings actually came close to defeating the Bears earlier this season. Rex Grossman struggled in that game, but it wasn't nearly as bad as what he did against the Patriots last week. When you throw the ball deep to Bernard Berrian so many times in one game, it's no wonder that you get picked off three times by the same person. The Vikings' offense came alive against the Cardinals for the first time in weeks, but the holes for Chestor Taylor will be limited and Brad Johnson won't be able to count on his receivers to come close to matching their performance from last week. The Vikings will stay in the game due to their strong run defense, but Chicago will be able to take control in the second half. Bears 18, Vikings 10.

New York Jets vs. Green Bay Packers. The "easy" schedule for the Jets continues this week as they have a shot to pick up their seventh victory of the season, which could put them in a tie for the sixth playoff seed by time the week is over. Chad Pennington had his best game in weeks against a porous Texans' secondary, and the connection to the duo of Coles and Cotchery was renewed. The Packers' pass defense is just as bad as Houston's, but Brett Favre and Ahman Green make for a solid match-up against a Jets defense that has played very well over the past three weeks. Call this an upset if you wish, as the Packers' potent offense won't be forced into their costly turnovers against New York's defense. Packers 27, Jets 20.

San Diego Chargers vs. Buffalo Bills. In what seems like another walkover game for the Chargers, the Bills should be able to post a legitimate threat to the Chargers' winning streak. LaDainian Tomlinson is too hot to pick against right now, but what makes Buffalo so dangerous is their ability to score on all sides of the ball. Willis McGahee provided the extra spark needed for the Bills last week to get over the hump and keep them right in the thick of the second spot of the AFC East, regardless of whether or not it'll earn them a shot at the playoffs. I feel inclined to pick the Bills in the upset again, but I feel as if I'd only be outthinking myself. Chargers 21, Bills 17.

San Francisco 49ers vs. New Orleans Saints. The 49ers did a tremendous job competing with the Rams on the road last week after I thought they would be blown out. Mike Nolan will bring his team to play against the Saints, but the talent on the team will not be enough to match what the Saints bring to the table at this point of the season. Drew Brees is throwing the ball better than he ever has, and has been able to make weapons out of all of his receivers at times when he's been without either Joe Horn or Marques Colston. Colston is still questionable this week, but expect the Saints to run the ball a little more often with Deuce McAllister. Frank Gore has been on fire for awhile now, and will cool down slightly this week. Saints 24, 49ers 13.

Houston Texans vs. Oakland Raiders. With both teams eliminated from playoff contention already, this is the only game that can be considered a "snoozer" already. I'm not saying the game itself won't be exciting, but the impact of it will have no bearing on the postseason. The Raiders have performed better offensively since Aaron Brooks has taken control of the offense, and he could be due for a big game against the Texans' secondary. In fact, Randy Moss could actually be due for his best game of the season after doing absolutely nothing over his past three games. The Texans have had their moments this season, but their inability to pull more upsets has only shown how far away they are from a team like the Colts. Here's to the Raiders getting their first true "win" in convincing fashion of the season. Raiders 28, Texans 20.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Pittsburgh Steelers. The playoffs may be out of question for the Steelers now, but that doesn't mean they can't end the season on a positive note. Bill Cowher will never get his team to quit, and although Pittsburgh's defense has almost lost it's intimidation factor, the Buccaneers aren't exactly the type of offense that will be able to come into Pittsburgh and pile it on. Roethlisberger will be protected much better than he was a week ago, and they'll be gearing up for the one game that still matters for pride: a re-match against the Ravens. Steelers 23, Buccaneers 9.

Carolina Panthers vs. Philadelphia Eagles. Although it's easier said than done, the Panthers will try to use the same formula that the Colts did a week ago: use their rookie running back to pound away at the Eagles' defense. Jeff Garcia didn't have too many issues against Indianapolis' defense, mainly because Brian Westbrook had so much running room all day long. The Panthers' defense will contain Westbrook more times than not, forcing Garcia to throw the ball down the field more often with Julius Peppers chasing him down. Carolina can't afford any more upsets this late in the season, and that includes a game against a tough team with a backup quarterback. Panthers 20, Eagles 19.

Last week, I took the Panthers in my survivor pick against the Redskins, and I lost! That threw away my chance to finish the season with a strong survivor pick, but I'll still give it a go this week by taking the San Diego Chargers to topple the Buffalo Bills.

Predictions Record to Date: 111-65(It's starting to look a lot better.)
Last Week: 14-2(That's called redemption.)
Survivor Streak: Won 2 (Phi over Hou, Bal over Oak, Was over Hou, Cle over Oak, NO over TB, Dal over Hou, Jac over Hou, Pit over Oak, Chi over Mia, Den over Oak, KC over Oak, Car over Was.)

It's hard to imagine that the postseason is quickly approaching, and that more snow games could be on the way with December on the way.

-Chris Pokorny


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