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- Week 15 NFL Predictions: Colts to Get Back on Track

Chris Pokorny December 16, 2006
Chris Pokorny
PFC Owner & Writer

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It is Week 15 in the NFL, as the playoffs are now only a few weeks away. After a series of upsets in Week 14, we're already off to one this week as the San Francisco 49ers kept their playoff hopes alive with a road victory over the Seattle Seahawks. The 49ers have now swept the season series against Seattle, something nobody could've imagined. Now, before I get to the picks for tonight's Saturday game, the Sunday games, and the Monday nighter, let's take a look at the current playoff picture...(Note, the following list should represent the playoff seeds as they stand heading into Week 15, and the number in parenthesis tells what position that team was in last week)...



AFC
1. San Diego Chargers* (2)
2. Indianapolis Colts (1)
3. Baltimore Ravens (3)
4. New England Patriots (4)
5. Cincinnati Bengals (5)
6. Jacksonville Jaguars (-)
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7. New York Jets
8. Kansas City Chiefs
9. Denver Broncos

NFC
1. Chicago Bears* (1)
2. New Orleans Saints (2)
3. Dallas Cowboys (4)
4. Seattle Seahawks (3)
5. New York Giants (5)
6. Philadelphia Eagles (6)
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7. Atlanta Falcons
8. Minnesota Vikings
9. Carolina Panthers
10. San Francisco 49ers

In the NFC, I'd like to point out that the reason Seattle dropped one spot is because I am including their Thursday game into the race, meaning they have one more loss than Dallas. Before the game, they would've been the third seed. Besides that, not a whole lot happened in the NFC in terms of swapping positions last week. In the AFC, the Colts finally lost their first seed to the Chargers, and the Jaguars reclaimed their wildcard spot.

Now, to this week's predictions. I'm already 0-1 this week after losing my second consecutive Thursday game. The fans also have suffered numerous losses on Thursday nights, either due to the poor broadcasting on the NFL Network, or the ridiculous complications involving who is permitted to see the game. Now, to this week's predictions, starting with the games of the week...

FORGET THE DEFENSE

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Indianapolis Colts. Unfortunately for the Colts, it looks as if the only way they'll be winning games from here on out won't involve anything related to their defense. The Colts best chances of winning at this point are to do what the used to have to do - outscore their opponents. While losing three of four, the Colts haven't put their typical 30 points on the board. Unlike the past, where the opposing teams would fear having to match the Colts possession by possession, it now seems as if the Colts are being forced into that philosophy, and they aren't executing enough. Unfortunately, it doesn't look as if the Colts will have Bob Sanders again this Sunday, further hurting their chances at stopping Bengals running back Rudi Johnson.

When you're thinking of teams that have clicked at the right time, the Bengals can be placed at the top of that list. The Bengals were put in a must-win situation after they lost the shootout to San Diego, and they've come through. At first it was only via their offense, as they were suffering defensive issues just as bad as the Colts were. Over their past three games though, the Bengals defense has complimented the offense perfectly, establishing Cincinnati as a frontrunner for the fifth playoff spot in the AFC. Based on the way these two teams have played in recent weeks, the Bengals should clearly have more momentum. However, I look for Manning and the offense to air it out against a Bengals secondary that is still not in the best of shape. Even if the Colts can't stop the Bengals, the Colts need to make it a priority that Manning has one of those games where Hunter Smith never sees the field. In some cases, that may mean going for it on fourth downs. Colts 28, Bengals 27

SEEKING VENGENCE

Kansas City Chiefs vs. San Diego Chargers. Considering the tear that LaDainian Tomlinson is on, it's hard to imagine how he could have possibly been on the losing side of the result of a game this year. Before the Chargers began their seven-game winning streak though, guess which team - and running back - defeated Tomlinson and the Chargers? You guessed it - Larry Johnson and the Kansas City Chiefs. On a day where Tomlinson was limited to only 15 carries for 66 yards, as well as catching touchdown (far below his season average), the Chargers lost on a last-second field goal by Chiefs kicked Lawrence Tynes. Meanwhile, Johnson was able to run the ball 28 times for 132 yards and two touchdowns. You can count on Tomlinson getting a whole heck of a lot more carries this time around, and he's without question on pace to put touchdown No. 30 on the board.

The quarterback situation has changed for the Chiefs this time around. Damon Huard was still filling in for Trent Green in the first meeting, and it was a game in which he relied on big plays from tight end Tony Gonzalez. Green will need his big tight end to produce more than he did last week against the Baltimore Ravens, because their playoff hopes are on the line. Like the game above, this one has the makings of yet another shootout. However, the Chargers aren't giving off any sign that they can be stopped on a consistent basis, and the Chiefs defense - or anyway for that matter - can handle Phillip Rivers, Tomlinson, and Antonio Gates all in one. Chargers 31, Chiefs 23.

CANCEL THE OTHER OUT

Philadelphia Eagles vs. New York Giants. A few weeks ago, we learned that Eagles quarterback Donovan McNabb was finished for the season. And, throughout the past month and a half, the Giants have had more controversy than any other team in the NFL. Yet, here in Week 15, both of them hold the two precious wildcard spots in the NFC. Jeff Garcia was played better than anyone could have asked as Philadelphia's quarterback to get them back in the race, while the Giants got the win they needed against the Carolina Panthers last week to stay alive. If you remember correctly, when these two teams met back in Week 2, the Giants staged probably the second-best comeback of the season after it looked as if Philadelphia would cruise to victory.

When Garcia originally took over the Eagles, I thought that Philadelphia was finished. With a win over the Giants though, not only can the Eagles take a huge step towards clinching a wildcard spot, but then can possibly knock their division rivals out of the playoff race. Eli Manning was able to use Plaxico Burress properly last week for the first time in awhile, and although their defense gave up over 400 yards passing to Chris Weinke, they did what was necessary to force turnovers and get the victory. Giants defensive end Michael Strahan is still listed as doubtful for the game, which has to be a relief to Garcia. This will be another exciting game, but I expect the Giants to sweep the season series as both teams play well. Giants 14, Eagles 10.

REST OF THE WEEK

Dallas Cowboys vs. Atlanta Falcons. After playing so poorly last week against the New Orleans Saints, the Cowboys will seek a win to keep their hopes of a first-round bye alive. The Falcons are entering the game winning two straight games, but that doesn't mean they have gotten over the hump just yet. Both of their wins have come against two of the weaker teams in the NFC, and they haven't won in the most convincing fashion. Tony Romo has cooled down a little bit over the past two weeks, but last week's loss can be blamed on the poor gameplan offensively. After an early Julius Jones touchdown run, it simply seemed like Bill Parcells didn't know what he wanted the offense to do. Parcells is too good of a coach to let that happen two weeks in a row, and Vick will not be able to beat Dallas' defense, even if he is playing at home. Cowboys 27, Falcons 17.

Cleveland Browns vs. Baltimore Ravens. The Ravens defense continues to play well, as they could very well sneak into the first playoff seed in the AFC if the Colts lose another game or if the Chargers fall. Baltimore deserves a ton of credit for being the first team to ever beat Trent Green at Arrowhead in December, primarily via the constant pressure brought by them. Cleveland laid an egg against the Pittsburgh Steelers last week, but don't forget that they had beaten the Chiefs before that. Derek Anderson played well last week and read Pittsburgh's defensive blitzes very well. If Cleveland's receivers hang onto the football this week, they'll have a chance to make a game out of it. However, Cleveland has placed three of their defensive starters on the injured reserve during the week, and are clearly beat up as they finish the season. Ravens 24, Browns 20.

Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers. The chances are still very slim for the Packers playoff hopes, but if several things fall their way this week, there's a chance that they will only be one game out of the sixth wildcard. It sounds crazy, but it could definitely happen with how the NFC is playing out. Favre has had an up-and-down season: in some games they have complete control, in other games they just barely lose after a fumble, and then in other games they are simply embarrassed. The Lions can't put very many things together on the other hand, and they just lost one of their few offensive threats in running back Kevin Jones. Paackers 26, Lions 14.

Houston Texans vs. New England Patriots. For the Patriots, the cure to their struggles last week will be provided at the expense of the Texans. I don't really understand the reasoning behind releasing receiver Doug Gabriel at this point of the season, but too many times this season we've seen their low-profile receivers play well enough to win games. I think New England found out how big of a loss Laurence Maroney was after being without him against the Dolphins. He has the ability to make crazy plays up and down the field, and without him, the running back system isn't too strong with Corey Dillon solely having the workload. There's still a chance that he won't be able to go against the Texans, but either way, Houston doesn't have enough talent to have the same type of schemes that Miami had. Patriots 17, Texans 7.

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Tennessee Titans. Although the Colts will still end up winning the AFC South, it suddenly looks like they'll have some tougher competition next season. The Jaguars have had their inconsistencies this year, but overall they have played stronger under David Garrard. Meanwhile, the play of Vince Young for the Titans has been unbelievable. Not only have they won tight games against some good teams over the past month, they have climbed themselves back into the playoff race. They would need everyone else to lose out, which won't happen, but still, they have a lot to look forward to. It's hard to bet against this one being another close game, and if he's done it four straight weeks, why not a fifth. Titans 14, Jaguars 13.

Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills. A lot of people, including myself, failed to give the Bills credit heading into last week's game against the Jets. No one in the league is a pushover, especially the Bills. Miami's defense has carried the Dolphins well after an awful start to the season, and Joey Harrington's gameplay may force the team to make him their starter next season. Not having Ronnie Brown available still hurts their chances at establishing a running game. The winner of this game could result from a defensive touchdown, something that both teams have done often this season. Bills 23, Dolphins 20.

New York Jets vs. Minnesota Vikings. The "easy" schedule for the Jets suddenly isn't seeming so easy. After falling to the Bills a week ago, they will have their hands full against an NFC team that could hold the sixth wildcard spot after the week is over. Artose Pinner ran the ball well last week, but starter Chester Taylor should be able to make his return to the field against New York. The Vikings have one of the league's best run defenses, which will greatly affect the Jets chances of establishing the passing game with Chad Pennington. It seems like a feel-good story for the Jets to make the playoffs and overcome the odds, but the Vikings defense won't let that happen no matter how unproductive Brad Johnson may be. Vikings 10, Jets 3.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Carolina Panthers. As much as I would like the Panthers to succeed and make the postseason still (they were my Super Bowl pick before the season), I don't have faith in them under Chris Weinke. And, although they still have a lot of talent, the Panthers defense has not been close to the level they should be at. The Steelers haven't thrown the season away by any means, and have established the running game better in recent weeks than they did to start the season. Ben Roethlisberger has struggled tremendously on the road this season, but Carolina isn't exactly playing lights out during their sudden three-game losing streak. Steelers 20, Panthers 14.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Chicago Bears. The Bears defense didn't fair too well against Marc Bulger when missing two of their defensive starters, but they could probably dominate the Buccaneers offense with none of their starters in the game. Tampa Bay's offense doesn't seem to have any spark, with the exception of the occasional big-play to Joey Galloway. Rex Grossman took babysteps in cutting down on the turnovers against St. Louis. I would look for the Bears to have a busy day running the football against Tampa Bay, letting their defense (and Devin Hester) handle most of the work. Bears 28, Buccaneers 0.

Washington Redskins vs. New Orleans Saints. The Reggie Bush era has taken over in New Orleans the past two weeks. The Saints are using him better than people could've imagined, as the one-two punch between him and Deuce McAllister is the best in football. Drew Brees knows exactly where to hit the big play, and it's the reason they've become the most explosive offensive team in football. The tenure for Jason Campbell in Washington has been a little unusual thus far. Although he's not putting big numbers on the board, he is throwing the ball downfield enough to give the team some hope for next season. The Redskins won't have a chance in this game though, as the Saints are seemingly unstoppable now. Saints 28, Redskins 10.

Denver Broncos vs. Arizona Cardinals. After not rushing for over 100 yards in a game all season, I guess it makes sense that Edgerrin James has now done it two weeks in a row. And, it also makes sense that because of that, as well as some great passing by Matt Leinart, the Cardinals have won two games in a row. The Broncos are another loss away from ending their playoff hopes, and the fact that Jay Cutler is starting hasn't helped matters. He hasn't stepped in and played as well as someone like Tony Romo has, but what else did Mike Shanahan expect? The Broncos defense has faded during the second half of the season, but they'll make enough plays to stop James in this one. Broncos 20, Cardinals 13.

St. Louis Rams vs. Oakland Raiders. The Rams were unfortunate to give up two return touchdowns to the Bears last week, because for the first time in awhile, it felt like their offense actually clicked. The Rams should be able to establish the same offense against the Raiders, similar to what the Bengals did last week. The Raiders won't win any games until they stop making stupid mistakes offensively. Rams 21, Raiders 9.

Last week, I took the Seahawks to beat the 49ers as my survivor pick. That didn't do me any good, and it really doesn't matter who I pick this week. I'll take the Vikings over the Jets.

Predictions Record to Date: 128-81(I kind of hoped I'd be doing better.)
This Week: 0-1(Lost the Thursday game.)
Last Week: 8-8(Who could've predicted the Colts, Patriots, and Seahawks would lose.)
Survivor Streak: Lost 1 (Phi over Hou, Bal over Oak, Was over Hou, Cle over Oak, NO over TB, Dal over Hou, Jac over Hou, Pit over Oak, Chi over Mia, Den over Oak, KC over Oak, Car over Was, SD over Buf, Sea over Ari.)

The playoff picture should get a lot clearer after this week.

-Chris Pokorny


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