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- Week 1 NFL Predictions: Colts Ready to Defend Title

Chris Pokorny September 6, 2007
Chris Pokorny
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The first week of the 2007 NFL regular season is starting off with a bang tonight as the New Orleans Saints battle the defending Super Bowl champions, the Indianapolis Colts. While it may be the most exciting game of the week, there are still plenty of enticing games saved for Sunday that will answer questions throughout the entire offseason.

One primary factor involves head-coaching changes that took place on good football teams. After reaching the playoffs last year, the San Diego Chargers and the Dallas Cowboys are being guided by new head coaches. The Pittsburgh Steelers, who won the Super Bowl just two years ago, were forced to hire another coach after the retirement of Bill Cowher. These teams have the talent to go far this year, but will the coaching changes partially deter their paths to glory?

And then, there are the player personnel questions. Will Randy Moss and Donte Stallworth have the overwhelming effect on the Patriots' offense that everyone is expecting? Can Rex Grossman shake off all of the criticism he sustained last year? Have the Broncos found a solid running back again? Conclusions can be formed regarding these questions after Week 1, but the real answers won't be known until later in the season, when the pressure is turned up a notch.

Now, onto this weeks predictions, starting with my games of the week...

HANGOVERS CAN CARRY OVER

New Orleans Saints vs. Indianapolis Colts. The NFL refuses to feature a dull matchup in the league's first game of the season. In fact, many would argue that the chances the Saints meeting up with the Colts in the Super Bowl in February are fairly high. That's quite a distance into the future though, as both teams are entering the 2007-2008 season with a ton of confidence. The Colts have a right to walk with a special swagger, but they'll be doing everything but that against the Saints. Indianapolis has been put into a situation where their defense will truly be put to the test yet again. Last year, their defense was pathetic during the regular season, but surpassed expectations in the postseason. The Colts lost some of their "better" defensive players, leading many people to believe that teams will be able to rip them for 200 yards rushing every week. Fortunately, when the Colts are at home with Peyton Manning under center on offense, a lot of that pressure is actually shifted to opposing teams to execute, knowing that Manning can put 30 points on the board with ease.

If any team is going to give a scare to the Colts in Week 1, it would certainly be the Saints. This isn't a team that's going to be intimidated by playing the Super Bowl Champions on the road to start off the season. The Saints showed their maturity by not folding to the pressure after being written off as the cellar dwellers of the NFC South prior to last season, only to become one of the best teams in football. New Orleans feels that Reggie Bush is ready to take a big step forward in his second year by running the football more often, rather than being more of an exclusive receiver/occasional carry back. Drew Brees lost veteran receiver Joe Horn in the offseason, but has shown that he can distribute the ball to whoever is on his team. This game should go back and forth, and although the Saints' defense is better than the Colts' defense, the elements will be too difficult to overcome to start off the season. Colts 34, Saints 27

THE TEST OF REX

Chicago Bears vs. San Diego Chargers. Had the Chargers not collapsed to the New England Patriots in the playoffs last year, there's a good chance that this could have been the Super Bowl matchup last season. After a brilliant 14-2 season last year, including a record-shattering performance by running back LaDainian Tomlinson, the Chargers are anxious to move on from such a devastating loss. Meanwhile, the Bears have more things to be concerned about that the fact that they lost the Super Bowl: how will Rex Grossman perform this season? We will not know the true answer to that question until the half way point of the season, but the organization has to know that fans will scrutinize the mistake prone quarterback for any miscues that his makes.

The Bears took a big risk in the offseason by naming Cedric Benson their starting running back, trading away veteran Thomas Jones. The decision will pay off if Benson fits in fine, but he hasn't shown a lot of spark over the past two seasons and did not look very impressive in the preseason. To start off the season, it should be expected that the Bears will be carried by the same units that carried them last year - defense and special teams. That will be good enough to get them back into the playoffs, but not enough to take down a team that is as stacked as the Chargers on the road. San Diego didn't make a lot of changes offensively, but they are expecting Vincent Jackson to step up and be the starting caliber receiver to take them to the next level. He'll show it in Week 1. Chargers 21, Bears 17

SETTING THE TONE EARLY

New England Patriots vs. New York Jets. I don't think you could've asked for three games that are going to be so intense as the ones mentioned thus far. The last time these two teams met, there was a lot of anticipation as well as some belief that Eric Mangini would be able to upset the "teacher", Bill Belichick, in the postseason. Although the Jets remained competitive for a half or so, the Patriots ended up securing a comfortable victory in the second half of the game. The Jets focused on addressing two of their biggest needs in the offseason - running back and defensive backs - and are poised to compete with the Patriots yet again. Although Thomas Jones wasn't as explosive in the preseason as the team had hoped, gameday would logically be a different story.

It's great to hear that the Jets improved after last season's remarkable season, but guess what: the Patriots got better to. New England didn't only get a little better, they got a lot better. Tom Brady, a man who has never had big-name receivers to distribute the ball to, suddenly has three new explosive weapons: Randy Moss, Donte Stallworth, and Wes Welker. The team's leading receiver last season, Reche Caldwell, was just cut the other day. On defensive the Patriots were able to gobble up linebacker Adalius Thomas, one of the most sought defensive players in the offseason. This game won't necessarily be a testament to the Jets not doing enough in the offseason to be a good team this year. Instead, it'll show just how dangerous the Patriots are supposed to be. Patriots 27, Jets 17

CHANGE FOR ONE, NOT FOR THE OTHER

New York Giants vs. Dallas Cowboys. In a rivalry that is always one of the funnest to watch during the NFL season, both teams faced coaching predicaments last season. Although Bill Parcells was a historic coach in the league, many people felt that he was not allowing the Cowboys to perform to their fullest potential. On the other hand, Giants head coach Tom Coughlin had his team in disarray like no other team in the history of the NFL. Every week, a highlight reel could be made of embarrassing moments from a single game, whether it was Eli Manning throwing a ball to the grass, Jeremy Shockey dropping a wide open pass, Bob Whitfield smashing his helmet into a defenseless lineman, or a defensive lineman letting Vince Young go after he could've easily tackled him to end the game.

The Cowboys are hoping for a little more freedom with Parcells, and that will bank on the success of Tony Romo. Romo started off on fire last season, but eventually cooled down a little towards the end of the season. The running back situation could still be complicated between Julius Jones and Marion Barber, but the hope is that a more efficient system will be put into place to quickly determine which back is appropriate on that particular day. I believe the Giants will show some maturity to start off the season, but being on the road against what is still a solid Cowboys team will cause them to fall. Cowboys 20, Giants 14

REST OF THE WEEK

Denver Broncos vs. Buffalo Bills. During the offseason, the Broncos made three significant changes: disposing of the "Browncos" defensive line for the most part, adding Travis Henry to the ground game, and acquiring cornerback Dre Bly. All three of those decisions were very wise moves, but I still question the team's capabilities on offense. Just because they added Henry, who had some injury problems in the preseason, it doesn't mean that they'll be able to pound the ball at will with success. The Bills lost Nate Clements in the offseason, but have made several additions to the linebacker position and to the offensive line which many people don't seem to know about. The Bills season will have a lot to do with how quickly Marshawn Lynch adapts to the league, but I'm calling for an upset here. Bills 16, Broncos 14

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cleveland Browns. Something about a Steelers team that was average last season under Bill Cowher, and is entering this season with their first new head coach in a decade and a half, tells me that the opening of the season will not be too bright. The only thing I keep hearing about the Steelers are assumptions: the Steelers will run the defense fine under Tomlin, and Ben Roethlisberger won't make as many mistakes as he did last year. I think the Steelers have the potential to do well, but I need to see them win before I can make that commitment. Meanwhile, the Browns have been written off as a bad team, despite the fact that they made just as many significant additions in the offseason that a team like the San Francisco 49ers did. Browns 23, Steelers 20

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Green Bay Packers. With the string of picks I've been making, it certainly would seem risky that I'm picking so many "underdogs" to win. The same factor applies here with a Packers team that I believe will surprise people to be one of the better teams in the NFL. The Packers' weakest element will be the running game, but Brett Favre has shown that the passing game can carry the team's offense, especially after the impressive progress shown by rookie James Jones. The defense is very underrated - they won't force Donovan McNabb into many mistakes, but they'll do enough to get Favre the ball often enough to give Green Bay the advantage. Packers 27, Eagles 24

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Houston Texans. After the Texans revamped their offense with quarterback Matt Schaub and running back Ahman Green in the offseason, it's half-tempting to believe they'll surprise the league as much as the Saints did last year. However, the vulnerabilities on the offensive line and the lack of a significant receiving threat after Andre Johnson still remains an issue. The Chiefs were atrocious offensively in the preseason, meaning the only threats they'll have again this season are Larry Johnson and Tony Gonzalez. Fortunately for them, Johnson has been fresh all preseason after holding out and will be ready to get on a tear. Chiefs 17, Texans 10

Tennessee Titans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars. Year after year, it's the same story for the Jacksonville Jaguars: they have a great defense and are expected to make a run at the postseason. Unfortunately, things haven't panned out for them to make a serious run in the playoffs yet. The major issue has been to find some success on offense, but was the answer to all of their downfalls to sign Dennis Northcutt, a career slot receiver with the Browns, and then cut Byron Leftwich after he was supposed to be the starting quarterback? The Titans will miss Pacman Jones' ability, but after finding a couple of running threat options during the preseason, everyone believes that Vince Young will pick up where he left off last year. I'd bank on that being true. Titans 17, Jaguars 12

Atlanta Falcons vs. Minnesota Vikings. With Michael Vick done for the season after his despicable acts, the matchup between these two teams doesn't really seem to have a draw factors besides their own fans. The Falcons are being led by Joey Harrington, a quarterback who still hasn't shown me anything of spectacular ability on what is not a very threatening offense. The Vikings' depth chart at the receiver position is so thin, it isn't even funny. I'm not sure if any of the Vikings' receivers would even be fourth receivers on most other NFL teams. However, the Vikings do have a very good run defense still to go along with what should be an exciting run offense that now includes rookie Adrian Peterson. Vikings 13, Falcons 10

Carolina Panthers vs. St. Louis Rams. This will be the last chance for Jake Delhomme to prove that he is still the right man for the starting quarterback role in Carolina, and it starts with proving the team can execute on third down. The Rams worked towards improving their defensive line some more in the offseason, drafting the highly praised Adam Carriker. One of the biggest additions for the Rams may very well be tight end Randy McMichael, who should open things up over the middle a little bit more for Bulger. The Panthers were my projected NFC Champions last year, but they've disappointed me too much to keep that faith heading into this season. Rams 28, Panthers 19

Miami Dolphins vs. Washington Redskins. Trent Green had a good overall career with the Kansas City Chiefs, and is a manageable person to work with for the Dolphins offense this year. However, passing up on Brady Quinn will inevitably be a huge mistake. The Redskins seem to be underdogs this year in the NFC, but they have the potential to do exactly what they did a few years ago: sneak up on everyone and make the playoffs. Jason Campbell was overly impressive at quarterback last year, and if Clinton Portis isn't ready to go, Ladell Betts will be more than capable of handling the job. There shouldn't be too much offense in this game, playing into the Redskins' favor at home. Redskins 17, Dolphins 16

Detroit Lions vs. Oakland Raiders. The Raiders' quarterback situation isn't as ugly as having to choose from Aaron Brooks and Andrew Walter, but Daunte Culpepper and Josh McCown aren't going to be able to single handedly win football games on a poor offense. The Raiders' receivers and running backs on offense are the people that made most of the mistakes last year, and almost nothing has changed. The defense is simply outstanding, but they won't be able to help it after they're put in such poor field position all the time. The Lions have a high-powered enough of an offense to catch Oakland off guard with a few deep completions after turnovers. Lions 28, Raiders 14

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Seattle Seahawks. If Jeff Garcia is able to do anything close to the job for the Buccaneers offense that he did for the Eagles offense last year, then he showed literally be bowed down to. Garcia was a nice choice for Tampa Bay's system, but the receiving options still aren't there, and Garcia won't have the luxury of a running back comparable to Brian Westbrook to get the ball to. The Seahawks are healthy and have their sights set on winning their division again, and why not? They were able to do it last year while playing some pretty poor football in the regular season. Seahawks 31, Buccaneers 13

MONDAY NIGHT DOUBLE DOSAGE

Baltimore Ravens vs. Cincinnati Bengals. As much as I like the addition of Willis McGahee to the Ravens' system over Jamal Lewis, Baltimore still failed at adding legitimate threats at the wide receiver position. Steve McNair was fine for the Ravens offense last year, but isn't good enough to make his receivers better than they actually are. The Bengals' defense isn't that good, but they should have some more freedom against a non-explosive offense. Carson Palmer has historically been able to hit the big play here and there against Baltimore's defense during a game, and that's often the difference maker. Bengals 14, Ravens 13

Arizona Cardinals vs. San Francisco 49ers. I don't believe these two teams have established themselves enough to draw in other fans around the league, but this is a game everyone should watch. For years now, I've been high on the Cardinals' offensive potential. I still think their defense will hold them back, but seeing how Matt Leinart performs in his second year will be a treat. Meanwhile, the 49ers almost had a comparable season to that of the Jets last year, by winning so many games they weren't expected to win. Mike Nolan was a mastermind again in the offseason and did everything possible to allow the 49ers to compete with the Seahawks for the NFC West title this year. 49ers 28, Cardinals 24

Now that my picks for Week 1 are over, it's time to move on to my beloved "survivor" pick for the week. Week 1 features more close games than I'm used to to kick off the season, so I narrowed things down to the Vikings or the Seahawks. I'd rather save the Seahawks for later in the season, and this could be a golden opportunity to not waste any of the premier teams this week by selecting Minnesota. Therefore, I'm taking the Vikings over the Falcons for my survivor pick.

Before you leave, please check out my NFL picks contest before the game starts tonight!!!. There is no entry fee or catches whatsoever; it's just like a Yahoo Pick'em game. The difference is that whoever gets first place at the end of the season will win $150. If you have any comments regarding my picks, please send me a message in the form below and you'll be featured in our next PFC Mailbag Session. Here's to hoping that the NFL season starts out with a bang, and prey that no significant injuries occur to the players - that always seems to change a team's course of direction early on in the year.


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