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- Week 1 Predictions: Peyton vs. Eli

Chris Pokorny September 9, 2006
Chris Pokorny
PFC Owner & Writer

Tell Chris your opinion.

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Well, the NFL season has already started, but the first "true" day of the league begins September 9th, when most of the teams play their first game of the regular season. Just like last year, I will be making my pick selections here at Pro Football Critics each and every week. There will be four games of the week, in which I will provide a little more analysis on. Then, the remainder of the games will have an analysis that's about half as long.

I correctly predicted that the Pittsburgh Steelers would defeat the Miami Dolphins on Thursday, so my record has started with a positive winning percentage. I'll savor it, because before Sunday, this will be the only time this season that I have a perfect percentage. The NFL has scheduled some very interesting matchups to kick off the season, so let's get right to them.

(Red = Prediction)

Brother vs. Brother
Indianapolis Colts vs. New York Giants
Everyone knows the excitement behind this game involving Peyton Manning vs. Eli Manning, or Big Brother vs. Little Brother. Besides the quarterback situation, there are a lot of questions we'll find out in this game about both teams involving potent offenses and improving defenses. For the Colts, the biggest story is the change at running back. Dominic Rhodes will be the team's starting running back after the departure of Edgerrin James, while rookie Joseph Addai will see playing time as well. Rhodes has rushed for 1,000 yards before in the Colts' system, and with how worried teams will be that Peyton will burn them deep, there will be more than enough room to run. The Giants' defense would have been in big trouble last year, but with several upgrades at the linebacker position, they hope they'll have something to show for it besides a 40-spot on the Colts' scoreboard.

Meanwhile, Eli returns to the Giants with the same offensive weapons and the addition of rookie receiver Sinorice Moss. The Giants' offense was fantastic last season except for one thing: Eli's off games. When Eli had an off game, it often included more interceptions than touchdowns. With one extra year of maturity, Tom Coughlin hopes that he's learned to make better decisions. Although both teams have well-rounded defenses, the story of the game will focus on the offenses. Peyton won't have a chance to physically "face" his brother in this one, but when the game is over, his team will have the victory. Harrison, Wayne, and Rhodes have the edge over Burress, Shockey, and Barber.

How Many Points Can You Score?
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Besides the Colts, when I hear the word "offense" in the NFL, I usually think about the Bengals and the Chiefs. Carson Palmer is coming off of an ACL injury from the postseason last year, but if the preseason was a sign of things to come, he will not feel any side effects. The offense is returning just as it was last year, except they'll be without Chris Perry. Chad Johnson, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, and Rudi Johnson will provide enough to compensate for his absence. Cincinnati caused a lot of turnovers last year, but there are still major concerns over the amount of yards and points they allow per game. Their defense has not improved dramatically in the offseason, and they'll be without second-year man Odell Thurman.

The Chiefs try to improve their defense every year, but guess what happens? It always seems as bad as it was the year before. New head coach Herman Edwards hopes to change that trend after additions like Ty Law and Tamba Hali. Offensively, the team will rely almost exclusively on the running game. Larry Johnson would have been on pace to run for over 2,000 yards last season if he had played the first couple of games. The Chiefs block very well, and Johnson is always a home-run threat. Trent Green still does not have an overwhelming wide receiver, meaning Tony Gonzalez will still be his primary target. The Bengals offense will be more in sync, and if the Chiefs can't convert in the running game for two consecutive drives, it'll cost them. Bengals will win in a shootout.

Keeping the Showboating Down? Yeah, Right.
Dallas Cowboys vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Is it really possible for Terrell Owens to not showboat in some form in his first game of the season with a new team? Of course, that's assuming that he scores, and that he doesn't save his celebration antics for when he returns to face Philadelphia. After missing the postseason last year despite a fair season by quarterback Drew Bledsoe, all eyes will be on Owens this year, who will be complimented by Julius Jones and Marion Barber in the running game. The Cowboys defense shouldn't have to be too worried since they're facing a low-scoring offense, but the team will be worried if Owens causes any havoc if Bledsoe makes a "mistake".

The Jaguars could not get it done in the postseason last year and will be sticking with Byron Leftwich at quarterback. Unlike the Cowboys, the Jaguars lost a playmaker in the offseason in Jimmy Smith. Matt Jones and Ernest Wilford will try to step it up in the passing game, while Fred Taylor will attempt to have a healthy season. I don't like the Cowboys' chances on the road against a very tough defense, but if they manage the clock well and throw to Owens at the appropriate times, they'll be able to steal this one in a low-scoring contest.

High Expectations With Great Addition
Atlanta Falcons vs. Carolina Panthers
For the first time in his career, Jake Delhomme owned the Falcons last year. The NFL didn't wait long to get this rivalry off to a quick start, pinning the teams against each other in the first week of the season. Last year, the Panthers could only rely on Steve Smith in the receiving game, and the running game did not pick up until later in the season. Unfortunately for the Panthers, Smith has missed several practices this week due to a sore right hamstring, and is questionable to play against the Falcons. Without Smith, the team will still have Keyshawn Johnson, but won't that be the one-dimensional receiving game they had last year all over again?

The Falcons will once again try to prove that Michael Vick is still a capable quarterback in the league, but I still have the same, typical doubts about him throwing the football when he needs to make a clutch throw. The Panthers defense is quick, meaning Vick won't be able to take off as easy as he could against other teams. Ashley Lelie will not make a significant impact if Vick can't get the football to him. Without T.J. Duckett in the lineup, the Falcons will put more faith in the underrated Warrick Dunn. At the end of the day though, the Panthers defense will hold off Atlanta's offense after a couple of clutch throws from Delhomme to Johnson and/or Smith.

And now, the rest of the week...

Baltimore Ravens vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Is Steve McNair an upgrade over Kyle Boller? Most definitely, yes. However, the issue I've always had with the Ravens' offense is simply the general system. As his career has moved on, McNair has struggled against tougher defenses, meaning he'll have a long day against the Buccaneers defense. Chris Simms won't have it any easier against the Ravens' healthy defense. The Ravens were extremely awful on the road last year, going 0-8. With that type of a track record, you'd have to be taking a huge gamble to say the Ravens will stand a chance in this one.

Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots
There's really no need for me to elaborate on this game before revealing what'll happen: it'll be a blowout. The Bills' quarterback situation is awful, and Losman will have no chance against the Patriots' upgraded defense. On the other side of the ball, Tom Brady will show everyone that he can do just as well with guys like Chad Jackson and Reche Caldwell that he did with Deion Branch and David Givens. If Corey Dillon struggles this year during a game, the rookie Laurence Maroney will spell him and provide a boost. The Bills have playmakers in Lee Evans and Willis McGahee, but they need more than just that.

Denver Broncos vs. St. Louis Rams
It's tempting to pick a healthy Rams offense to upset the Broncos at home, but I don't see it happening. The Rams' defense is not dangerous enough to force Jake Plummer into a mistake, and the Broncos will be able to run the ball all day with the combination of the Bells at running back. Denver's defensive line will cause problems for the Rams' running game, and if Marc Bulger is forced into so many throws, he'll be bound to make a mistake eventually. Broncos win due to smart football accompanied by long drives.

New Orleans Saints vs. Cleveland Browns
Don't let the Reggie Bush hype factor too much into your decision during this game, because a team needs more than just one player to be good. Bush will probably have his moment during this game, but the Saints' defense will not be able to handle Reuben Droughns in the running game. The Browns' offense has three new weapons in theory from last year in Braylon Edwards(injured at end of year), Kellen Winslow(injured for two years), and Joe Jurevicius(came from Seattle). The Saints may have some better luck when they return to the Superdome during Week 3.

New York Jets vs. Tennessee Titans
Whether Kerry Collins, Billy Volek, or Vince Young are named the starting quarterback for the Titans before kickoff, I'm picking them to win the game. The Jets made the right move in picking Chad Pennington as their quarterback. Without a legitimate running game and a lackluster group of receivers though, the Jets will find it tough to win games this year. Despite the Titans indecision at quarterback, they have more depth at the receiving position, running back position, and their experience on defense is improving.

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Houston Texans
The Eagles aren't being given a chance by too many people due to the toughness of the rest of the teams in their division, but there's no reason they can't hang with them. Mario Williams will be showcased against the mobile Donovan McNabb, but like the Saints, the Texans need more upgrades than just one player. The Eagles won't blow the Texans out since they are on the road, but if they're not in control for the majority of the game, it'll be a surprise to me.

Seattle Seahawks vs. Detroit Lions
Much like the Steelers won their opener, there is no way the Seahawks will be upset after making the Super Bowl last season. The lost Jurevicius and Steve Hutchinson, but there are still plenty of leaders on the team. Jon Kitna will be a pleasant surprise for the Lions after a couple of disastrous years under Joey Harrington, but they still need to show some more chemistry before they can even come close to beating a team like Seattle. Seahawks will win convincingly on the road.

Chicago Bears vs. Green Bay Packers
You may consider this my "upset" of the week, considering the Bears defense is expected to shut down Favre and the Packers. I still have no faith in the Bears' offense, and their defense will not be able to carry them as much as they did last year. The Packers are healthier than they have ever been offensively it seems, including Ahman Green back as the starting running back. When you take a look back to two years ago when the Packers made the playoffs, the formula for both team's isn't very different. Oh yeah, and don't forget about A.J. Hawk on the Packers' defense.

San Francisco 49ers vs. Arizona Cardinals
Kurt Warner has struggled against tough defenses later in his career, but he won't have any issues against the 49ers, who are still in a rebuilding mode. Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin, and Edgerrin James have a chance to be the best offensive trio in the NFC if everything works out right. The defense isn't quite there yet for Arizona, but the 49ers still have to work on things with second-year quarterback Alex Smith.

Minnesota Vikings vs. Washington Redskins
Here's a tip: Don't be over concerned about the Redskins offensive struggles in the offseason. Granted, they will not come out with guns blazing, but they will have the same general formula as they did last season. Although the Vikings ended the season fairly well last season and are under a new head coach, I'm still not very confident in their ability to strike enough. Chester Taylor is unproven as a starting running back, and their receiving group was shaken up after Koren Robinson's stupid antics, leading to his termination. One big note for the Redskins: Clinton Portis will play in the game, either as a starter or a backup.

San Diego Chargers vs. Oakland Raiders
The Raiders were sloppy last year, and I really don't see Aaron Brooks being able to correct that. The Chargers lost too many games that they should've won last year, and for some reason, it is believed by many that Phillip Rivers won't be as good as Drew Brees this season. Brees did not tear it up by any means, and with the weapons that Rivers has been provided with and the learning he has done over the past couple of seasons, his performance could be one of the biggest surprises of the week.

There you have it, my predictions for the first week of the regular season. I'll have a column on Tuesday recapping all of the games during a week, comparing which of my picks were correct, and which were incorrect. For my first survivor pick of the season, I'm selecting the Philadelphia Eagles over the Houston Texans. Although the Eagles will be good, I'm still questionable of their abilities since they are playing in a tough decision. Anyone who faces the Texans will have it rather easy, making the Eagles a solid selection.

Predictions Record to Date: 1-0
Last Week: N/A
Survivor Streak: N/A

Don't forget to watch all of the pre-game shows as well. The CBS Today will feature James Brown leading the pregame show, the NFL on FOX will have Joe Buck leading the way, NBC has a whole new crew, and so does ESPN for Monday Night Football. Here's hoping for an exciting first week of the season, and only a glimpse of what's to come this year!

-Chris Pokorny


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