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- Week 4 Predictions: Favre Looking for Record

Chris Pokorny September 30, 2007
Chris Pokorny
PFC Owner & Writer

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The bye weeks are back for another year in the NFL, coming at the right time for a team like the 0-3 New Orleans Saints. Five undefeated teams remain in the NFL, and there's a good chance that five teams will be undefeated as the week comes to a close. A major story this week will be if Brett Favre is able to break the all-time touchdown record for a quarterback, set by Dan Marino. Favre only needs one score to break the record, and it'd be the second major record broken by an active NFL quarterback in recent years (Peyton Manning broke the single season record a few years ago).

Besides the record though, there is plenty of action to get excited about heading into week number four, particularly involving divisional games. Let's get fired up about this week's games of the week...

HISTORY REPEATS ITSELF

Seattle Seahawks vs. San Francisco 49ers. What's going on here? For the second week in a row, I have the San Francisco 49ers featured in the top game of the week. Last week I said that they would fall to the Steelers for many of the reasons that they did. The 49ers showed some of the inconsistency that they've brought to the table the past two years, something that wasn't very pleasing to see for a team looking to do wonders in Mike Nolan's second year as head coach. One thing that wasn't inconsistent about the 49ers last year was the fact that they defeated the Seattle Seahawks not once, but twice. If the 49ers had been more consistent, that would've allowed them to sneak into the playoffs due to the dominating divisional tiebreaker.

This year, chances are that these battles will have a significant bearing on both team's playoff chances. The Seahawks are better than last year due to being healthier all around, although Shaun Alexander is having to play through a broken left wrist. The one thing you have to like about San Francisco's chances in this game is their ability to defend the pass after the addition of Nate Clements into the secondary. The Seahawks have been getting solid production out of Alexander, but the 49ers seem to turn their game up to another level on the road. 49ers 24, Seahawks 21

HISTORY REPEATS ITSELF (PART II)

Denver Broncos vs. Indianapolis Colts. Believe me, I understand that the Denver Broncos have had a lot of changes since that string of playoff games in which they would continuously get blown out by the Colts. Do you know who has gotten better since those games though? Peyton Manning and the Indianapolis Colts. The Colts have received some criticism for not "dominating" the Titans and the Texans, but let's remember one thing. The Colts won the Super Bowl last year, and lost three games during the regular season, all of which came against teams in their division on the road. This year, they are already 2-for-2 in those games, which are a lot tougher than they sounds on paper.

The Broncos secondary has been very good with Champ Bailey and Dre Bly. It's tough to keep Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne in check, but if any unit could do it, it'd be those guys. The Broncos have been very vulnerable to the run, and Joseph Addai should be the man that sets everything up for Indianapolis this week. Travis Henry has had a couple of 100-yard performances this year, but he won't have the same luck against the Colts on the road. Colts 28, Broncos 17

EXCITEMENT LEVELS RENEWED

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Carolina Panthers. It seems like it's been a couple of years since the games between these teams have meant anything, but that's changed this year. With the Atlanta Falcons and the New Orleans Saints buried in the cellar of the division, a win here for either team really establishes control of the division for the first half of the season potentially. One factor is really making this a difficult game for me to decide on, and that involves the health report on Panthers quarterback Jake Delhomme. Backup quarterback David Carr certainly has enough experience if he were to start for the Panthers, but I never approved of his play with the Houston Texans. Seeing how well the Buccaneers' defense has played over the past two weeks, it's hard to say how well he can run Carolina's offense.

Jeff Garcia has proven just how much he can turn a franchise around. The Buccaneers are back in business, and Joey Galloway has been just as big of a part of that with his play at the receiver position. One factor that really stands out though is the play of running back DeShaun Foster of the Panthers. Foster is finally showing signs of staying healthy, and his numbers week in and week our are gradually improving. If the Panthers establish the running game, it doesn't matter who is at quarterback: Steve Smith will have some opportunities to make the big play needed to win the game. Panthers 17, Buccaneers 14

MAYBE MORE THIS TIME?

New England Patriots vs. Cincinnati Bengals. Over the first several weeks of the season, the Patriots have scored 38 points each week. Tom Brady is completing 80 percent of his passes, and Randy Moss is blowing by any coverage that is thrown at him. Meanwhile, the Patriots defense hasn't allowed an opposition to get over 14 points yet. So, wouldn't it make sense that the Patriots would actually score more than 38 points against a Bengals defense that is proving to be one of the most porous in football?

The Bengals will be without Rudi Johnson. Kenny Watson may have some moderate success on the ground, but overall, the ground game should be neutralized by the Patriots' defense. When New England is able to focus exclusively on defending Chad Johnson and T.J. Houshmandzadeh, it'll be extremely difficult for Cincinnati to overcome all of the factors that they are up against. Patriots 41, Bengals 24

REST OF THE WEEK

Houston Texans vs. Atlanta Falcons. This was perhaps the toughest pick of the week to make, believe it or not. The Texans came close to pulling off a rally against the Colts last week, despite the fact that they were without Andre Johnson and Ahman Green, their top two offensive weapons. Meanwhile, Joey Harrington threw for about 360 yards for the Falcons in his best performance of the season thus far. With Atlanta playing at home and having a pretty good pass defense, I can certainly see the Falcons having an advantage. In the end though, the deciding factor is that I never have faith in Joey Harrington heading into gameday, coupled with the fact that the Texans defensive front should be able to pressure him all game long. Texans 20, Falcons 10

New York Jets vs. Buffalo Bills. After last week's performance, it looks like the Jets are coming together. Chad Pennington was back to run the offense how it should be run and Thomas Jones received his fair share of touches. The Jets' defense didn't impress, but that shouldn't be a concern against a Bills offense that was poor under J.P. Losman to start the season. Now, the Bills are forced to throw rookie quarterback Trent Edwards in at starting quarterback. When you have a rookie quarterback, a rookie running back, not much experience at receiver, and not enough impact players defensively, you're not going to be a winning football team. Jets 27, Bills 10

Baltimore Ravens vs. Cleveland Browns. After hearing that Rudi Johnson was out for the Bengals, I probably should've converted this to one of the games of the week instead. The big story here is the fact that Jamal Lewis will be going head-to-head against Ray Lewis and the Ravens' defense. It should be a sight to see the first time that those two meet each other on a play. The Browns were a field goal away from being 2-1 last week, and are actually playing pretty well on offense. Cleveland's defense has been a liability, but sometime the Ravens' "platoon quarterback situation" will come back to bite them, whether it be a lack of continuity or a question of who to put in at what time. Browns 23, Ravens 17

St. Louis Rams vs. Dallas Cowboys. Laughable. A joke. Pathetic. Should I carry on with the various words or phrases that describe the St. Louis Rams' start to the season? Marc Bulger has been a big letdown, and even if they did muster anything respectable against the Cowboys, their defense won't have a chance to stop Tony Romo and the Cowboys' offense. No one can stop the Patriots in the AFC, and no one can stop the Cowboys in the NFC. Cowboys 40, Rams 16

Chicago Bears vs. Detroit Lions. Everyone has been calling for a change at the quarterback position, and it's finally happened: Brian Griese will start this Sunday against the Detroit Lions. What if the Bears lose though? Does that mean Rex Grossman should go back to being the starter? The real problem here isn't solely at the quarterback position for the Bears. Cedric Benson has been ineffective at the running back position, and half of the Bears' secondary is hindered by injuries. The Lions offense hasn't bothered running the ball this year: they've thrown and thrown and thrown, and it's worked in terms of putting points on the board. How about this: I'm taking the Detroit Lions to embarrass the Bears, although it'll have nothing to do with the quarterback change. Lions 30, Bears 17

Oakland Raiders vs. Miami Dolphins. Daunte Culpepper was fairly impressive last week. His decision making was better than I had expected, and despite the fact that he had little to work with in terms of wide receivers, he got the ball into the right hands often. The Raiders' most effective weapon is LaMont Jordan though, who is showing that he won't be giving up playing time to Dominic Rhodes any time soon. The Dolphins have quietly slipped to 0-3, and despite improving offensively, they are headed for 0-4. Raiders 24, Dolphins 16

Green Bay Packers vs. Minnesota Vikings. Brett Favre is ready for touchdown number 421. It's unfortunate that it'll have to come on the road, but if it contributes towards another win, Favre and the city of Green Bay would take that over anything. Green Bay is playing outstanding at every position, whether it be on offense, defense, or special teams. Unfortunately for the Vikings, the only thing they have really been good at is defending the run. Kelly Holcomb provides some effectiveness at quarterback, but you can only do so much without a threat to speak of at receiver. Packers 17, Vikings 13

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Arizona Cardinals. It's quite tempting to say that Ken Whisenhunt and the Arizona Cardinals will hand the Steelers their first loss, but why? Yes, the Cardinals have come within three points of winning in both of their losses, but the odds are stacked against them here. Matt Leinart isn't playing at his peak, and Arizona is without Anquan Boldin. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh has been effective on all cylinders and Ben Roethlisberger has been handling his "new" role very well. After dismantling the 49ers last week, the task should be fairly similar against the Cardinals this week. Steelers 26, Cardinals 16

Kansas City Chiefs vs. San Diego Chargers. To those of you that drafted LaDainian Tomlinson and Larry Johnson within the first two picks of your fantasy drafts, I'm sure it's been a very painful couple of weeks. One of those backs is bound to break out here. Unfortunately for Johnson, it'll be Tomlinson and the Chargers, who will be looking to take this one to the record books. Chargers 63, Chiefs 7

SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

Philadelphia Eagles vs. New York Giants. Thankfully both teams were able to pick up victories last week to spice up this game a little more. The Eagles were obviously impressive offensively last week due to their offensive explosion, but the Giants were impressive for overcoming adversity. The Giants' defense stepped up their games for the first time this season, but it's important to remember that fact: it was their first time. The Giants have more questions at the running back position due to even more injuries, and Plaxico Burress is questionable again. The Eagles have some issues health-wise as well, but will be closer to full strength to prove that their first two losses were "flukes". Eagles 31, Giants 27

SURVIVOR PICK

Three picks in a row correctly? That's not bad at all, as taking the Panthers over the Falcons last week proved to be a wise decision. I'm still saving up the Patriots, Colts, and Cowboys of the NFL for future dates, which I hope doesn't come back to bite me. This week, I'm going with the New York Jets to take out the Buffalo Bills on the road. It's a risk since the Jets aren't at home, but with the Bills not having any experience on their side, it's the best choice for me at this point in time.

STATISTICS

Predictions Record to Date: 32-16 (When the byes kicked in at Week 3 last season, I had a record of 30-16 at this point.)
Last Week: 10-6 (I'm at least averaging 10+ wins a week.)
Survivor Streak: Won 3 (Min over Atl, Den over Oak, and Car over Atl.)

What if the Packers win, but Brett Favre doesn't throw a touchdown? Would that even be possible, considering the Packers are one of the worst running offenses, and the Vikings are one of the best run defenses? You never know; the Vikings may simply hold Green Bay to a ton of field goals. Something to ponder; please leave some comments below on this week's games!


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