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- Week 5 Predictions: Buccaneers Look for Upset

Chris Pokorny October 6, 2007
Chris Pokorny
PFC Owner & Writer

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It was upset special in the NFL last week, as the Chiefs beat the Chargers, the Browns beat the Ravens, and the Cardinals beat the Steelers. I was lucky to put together a fairly respectable 8-8 record, although I was upset that my survivor streak ended so early into the season (thanks to the Jets falling to the Bills). This week, there are clearly several big games in the NFL, two of which could call for some heavy upsets. Let's get right into this week's games of the week...

NEW TEST FOR MANNING

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Indianapolis Colts. At the moment, it looks as if the Indianapolis Colts will be without running back Joseph Addai or wide receiver Marvin Harrison due to injury. Still, with the Colts having tremendous depth on the offensive line, and more offensive weapons in Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark, and Anthony Gonzalez, it seems logical that they could come away with a victory against an average team this week. They aren't just facing an average team though -- they are battling the surprise of the NFC, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Led by Jeff Garcia, the veteran quarterback is showing Tampa fans exactly what he was able to do for the Philadelphia Eagles last year. The Buccaneers' offense is producing effectively, while the defense has united with the combination of veterans and youngsters starting. The Buccaneers took a major hit last week after the injury to Cadillac Williams, forcing them to look down on their depth chart. If this were a home game for the Buccaneers and they were able to establish something effective on the ground like the Broncos did last week, I might consider them in an upset. The Colts' system is built to allow guys like Kenton Keith and Anthony Gonzalez to step in and play just as well as the starters though. Colts 27, Buccaneers 17

SUPER BOWL RE-MATCH

Seattle Seahawks vs. Pittsburgh Steelers. The Steelers may have been able to put this game behind them because they came away victorious two years ago in the Super Bowl. Veterans like Matt Hasselbeck and Shaun Alexander have nothing but retribution on their minds though, and they believe they have the talent to match the Steelers' intensity. Where the Steelers are strong, the Seahawks aren't particularly weak, and that's at defending the run.

Last week, the Steelers suffered defeat to the Arizona Cardinals because they couldn't run the football. Willie Parker was finally denied by an opposition, while Edgerrin James was able to move the chains late in the game against Pittsburgh's defense. In both instances, the Steelers missed one player from each side of the ball -- Hines Ward on offense, and Troy Polamalu on defense. Ward is able to be the extra man blocking downfield and is the only receiving threat besides Santonio Holmes. Polamalu is the identity of the Steelers' defense, and Arizona only gained steam after he was out with an injury. Both men probably won't play this week, and despite being at home, those key losses will be impossible to overcome when the final gun sounds. Seahawks 20, Steelers 17

GEARING UP FOR THE BIG GAME

Cleveland Browns vs. New England Patriots. Nobody wants to miss it when the New England Patriots do battle with the Dallas Cowboys next week, in a game where both teams could be undefeated. Before the Patriots get there though, they'll have to keep their attention focused on the Cleveland Browns of all teams. Romeo Crennel is getting his first crack at defeating the team he previously coaches with, even if it was a few years ago. The Patriots are looking forward to the return of safety Rodney Harrison after he served his four-game suspension. With New England's top-ranked defense in the league though, do they really need him?

Maybe so, because the Cleveland Browns have put together an offensive football team. Believe it or not, this will be the best offense team the Patriots will have seen this season, considering how poorly the Chargers have played and the fact that the Bengals were too one-dimensional last week without Rudi Johnson at running back. The difference for Cleveland hasn't been just one player -- it's been the entire offensive line, Jamal Lewis running the ball, and Derek Anderson getting rid of the football (he's only been sacked twice in four weeks of play). Cleveland's problem will be that no matter how well they could potentially do on offense, the Patriots' offense will shred a Browns' defense that is ranked near the bottom of the league. Patriots 37, Browns 20

PLAYING FOR FIRST PLACE

Chicago Bears vs. Green Bay Packers. The difference between a four-game lead and a two-game lead at this point of the season is enormous. The Detroit Lions are lingering right behind the Packers, but for discussion's sake, I'm only comparing these two teams at the moment. Favre and the Packers can't seem to lose anymore, putting together the longest winning streak in the NFL dating back to last season. The running game is still inept, but at this point, the stats are only as bad as they are on the ground because they are committed to throwing the ball more times than now. With the Bears' secondary still out, it's hard to argue against Favre having another career day against Chicago's secondary.

The Packers are still making plays defensively. They've been more vulnerable against the run, but the Bears haven't shown any strength offensively. Brian Griese is still a better choice than Grossman is and he shouldn't turn the ball over as much as last week, but that's not necessarily a good thing either. The Bears need a spark, and if Griese tries to engineer quick, efficient drives, he'll only end up turning the ball over. Any way you put it, the Bears are done unless they find a new quarterback and a healthy defense. Or, try Devin Hester at every position on the field. Packers 31, Bears 20

REST OF THE WEEK

Miami Dolphins vs. Houston Texans. The Dolphins defense can't be taken seriously anymore because they can't defend the run. When you're completely dominated at the line of scrimmage on defense, it's impossible to control the tempo of the game. The offense has shown some spurts of positives, mainly from Ronnie Brown, but Trent Green can't find enough consistent weapons through the air to overcome the misfortunes from the defense. The Texans defense has given up way too many points over the past couple of weeks. Despite being without Andre Johnson and Ahman Green the past two weeks, Matt Schaub has played well enough to the point where the defense should have been able to pick up the slack. Green may return this week, and until the Dolphins prove they can stop the run, I can't pick them to win, especially on the road. Texans 17, Dolphins 14

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Kansas City Chiefs. If there is one thing the Kansas City Chiefs have been able to do successfully this year, it's play defense. They are ranked third in the league and are riding high after a two-game winning streak following an upset win over the San Diego Chargers last week. Dwayne Bowe and Larry Johnson have given the Chiefs' offense some light, but this week they run into a well-rested Jacksonville Jaguars defense, which is ranked fourth in the league. You can question the Jaguars' ability to win on the road, but they were able to beat the Broncos on the road before the bye rather convincingly. Jacksonville's only giving up about ten points a game, and the Chiefs aren't in full stride yet with the running game. Jaguars 20, Chiefs 13

Carolina Panthers vs. New Orleans Saints. Steve Smith has a right to be upset -- heck, I'd be upset if I knew my season was suddenly riding on the production level of David Carr. The veteran quarterback looked worse than Chris Weinke would have in his debut with the Panthers, who are running into a Saints team looking to make a statement following the bye week. New Orleans has had two weeks to partially devise a gameplan to return to being the best offensive in football. They won't get too much help defensively, and a lot of pressure will be on the shoulders of Reggie Bush to make the highlight reel. When Bush is featured on ESPN, it means the Saints' offense is back in business. Saints 24, Panthers 14

New York Jets vs. New York Giants. You have to love it when these two teams meet up in the same stadium, theoretically creating another home game for the road team, while not really playing as a disadvantage to the home team. Chad Pennington has been depended on too much this year because the Jets have been unable to establish Thomas Jones as a threat on the ground. The Giants are red hot right now, coming off of their 12-sack performance last week. Eli Manning is looking like a veteran quarterback, and Brandon Jacobs should return to action. Giants 28, Jets 23

Arizona Cardinals vs. St. Louis Rams. The Cardinals need to focus on matching the intensity level they brought to the Steelers last week. If they don't bring the same exotic blitzes that worked so well at knocking Ben Roethlisberger around, then the Rams may actually have a shot at sneaking away with their first win of the season. The Cardinals should be able to stop Gus Frerotte and Brian Leonard, who make the Rams look like a minor league team on paper. The best show on turf has become the worst team in football without Mike Martz. Cardinals 21, Rams 9

Atlanta Falcons vs. Tennessee Titans. I underestimated the value of Joey Harrington last week. I've never been fond of him, but any time he does restore the tiniest bit of faith in me, he usually reverts back to what I call "Joey Harrington". The Titans are much more potent on offense with Vince Young's versatility, and the Titans defense has been more then fine without Pacman Jones so far. The Titans don't let the guard down under Jeff Fisher. Titans 26, Falcons 13

Detroit Lions vs. Washington Redskins. Close to being one of my games of the week, whoever wins this game could find themselves with the second-best record in the NFC, and yet be ranked second in their division as well. That's why this game means more than it sounds - a Lions' loss could spell a two-game disadvantage for Detroit, while a Redskins' loss could spell a two-and-a-half game disadvantage for Washington. Jon Kitna has executed Mike Martz' offense very well. The key for the Redskins is to maintain long, well-established drives, because their defense is good enough to keep the Lions from consistently hitting the big play if they play back. Clinton Portis will have a breakout day, frustrating the Lions' offense by not being able to get on the field. Redskins 24, Lions 21

San Diego Chargers vs. Denver Broncos. The Broncos are getting absolutely shredded on the ground for a Mike Shanahan defense. I don't really have a logic for saying that the Chargers' offense and defense will success, other than constantly repeating how much talent this team has. Norv Turner has receiver a lot of heat for not getting it done. If Turner fails to run Tomlinson all game, then I'll stop picking the Chargers to win. Having Rivers throw the ball against a dangerous Broncos secondary wouldn't make sense. The Broncos have some indecision with Travis Henry's situation, whether it be his injury or his pending suspension. Chargers 28, Broncos 17

Baltimore Ravens vs. San Francisco 49ers. What a fun offensive game this should be. In one corner, you have a team that's making dumb decisions (throwing it over fifty times with McNair last week) and is looking less intimidating on offense week by week. Meanwhile, the 49ers are stuck with Trent Dilfer at quarterback. The offense has been struggling to begin with, so saying that Frank Gore will get going against a strength the Ravens still have -- their run defense -- is not wise. I hate picking the Ravens based on how they've played, but they are in better shape this week than San Francisco is. Ravens 10, 49ers 3

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

Dallas Cowboys vs. Buffalo Bills. Upset? Upset!?! I'm sure Tony Romo and the offense laughs at that thought. As respectable as the Bills' performance against the Jets was last week, the Bills don't match up against the Cowboys. By no means is this disrespect to the Bills, but how did they even get a Monday Night game scheduled for them prior to the season? The Cowboys offense is rolling, and Trent Edwards' game-management production won't be able to match their tempo. Cowboys 28, Bills 10

SURVIVOR PICK

It's always depressing when my survivor streak comes to an end, and I never even had the chance to use the Patriots, Colts, Cowboys, Steelers, or Packers. The Jets failed to extend my streak to four games, and I'll have to live with the consequences. When I make survivor picks though, I don't start over -- I stick with the same teams that I can't pick to win again. This week, I'll try out the Arizona Cardinals over the St. Louis Rams. This may spell upset if Marc Bulger was playing and healthy, but that's not the case.

STATISTICS

Predictions Record to Date: 39-23 (It would've been nice to have hit 40 wins by Week 4.)
Last Week: 7-7 (I hate going .500. Considering .500 was better than average for last week though, I'll make an exception.)
Survivor Streak: Lost 1 (Min over Atl, Den over Oak, Car over Atl, and [NYJ over Buf])

The key this week will be how teams respond after the first set of bye weeks. Will the Saints show any life? Can the Titans match their competitiveness from their first three games? Will the Jaguars and Redskins move to 3-1? Please leave some comments below on this week's games, and enjoy all of the action in Week No. 5!


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